Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Eem » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:13:13

I think Gillick had a really strong eye for gifted players who weren't getting a real shot to contribute, or who had one outstanding skill that proper usage could really highlight.

Werth, Dobbs, Eyre, Stairs, Feliz all fit this bill. He didn't acquire Victorino but he gave him a shot to play.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby swishnicholson » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:24:25

JFLNYC wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:But I also don't see any moves that aren't defensible in some way.


But, swish, this is the kind of thing which drives me crazy. Is that really what the standard is now? That his moves are "defensible in some way?" That the only way a GM can be deemed a failure is if his moves are indefensible? That we're to just sigh and say: "No one stays on top all the time."

I'm not losing any sleep over whether Rube stays or goes, but that sort of defense just seems kind of weak. Whether we like it or not, results do matter. And, even if we cut him some slack on the results as long as the process is good, this is a guy who apparently is not all that big on process either. He doesn't have to have a 5-year plan, but he's got to have some good plan.

He's all too often IMO shrugged his shoulders at the future, e.g., by always seeming to give the extra year to Ibanez, Polanco, Moyer, etc. I would argue that his foresight and anticipation are not good enough, which is why he's gotten caught in a real bind on more than one occasion. For example, he had to trade Lee because he hadn't left himself any maneuverability with his payroll. Then, ironically enough, when Lee fell into his lap, he didn't have enough in reserve to replace his most productive hitter. That sort of thing is a failure of process IMO.

I know we've gotten to the point where we're not changing any minds around here on this issue. I may be too critical of the job Rube has done, but others (and I'm not pointing at you, swish) don't seem to want to hold him to a standard of excellence. He's not some guy sweeping floors who happens to have a bad day. He's got one of only 30 jobs like his in the world. I think he deserves to be held to a really high standard. And, frankly, I think he'd say the same thing if you asked him.


I don't have much time to respond as well as I should but in short: I think Amaro's results have been good to this point (maybe you think in spite of him) the team is entering a new phase (that I see as virtually inevitable), I'm willing to wait and see (a bit) how he handles this. The "defensible" comment is not really a defense of Amaro but a gentle complaint about the tenor of some posts. Those who find Amaro STOOPID and that so and so SUCKS don't really interest me, while those that recognize constraints and that there are different ways to approach things do.

Relevant to nothing, I really wish you would change your avatar. You make really good points and strong arguments, but I always have to make an effort to lower my hackles because I think Dallas Green is poking his finger in my chest and calling me a stupid M-F. And then I feel awful for hating him when I remember the terrible thing that happened to his granddaughter. It makes it so hard to maintain the equilibrium and poise I always strive for.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:36:07

I wouldn't classify Victorino or Werth as dumpster dives. Both were considered talented players but their orgs got down on them for different reasons. For Werth, it was the hand/wrist issue. For Victorino, the Dodgers were just stoopid (they felt he was developing behind what they had projected for a drafted 17 year old).
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Eem » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:38:13

Phan In Phlorida wrote:I wouldn't classify Victorino or Werth as dumpster dives. Both were considered talented players but their orgs got down on them for different reasons. For Werth, it was the hand/wrist issue. For Victorino, the Dodgers were just stoopid (they felt he was developing behind what they had projected for a drafted 17 year old).

I dunno, they got both really cheaply and gave them a shot to play. Perfect "dumpster dives." Most of the guys we're talking about with regards to Oakland were once hyped for some reason or another, and were let go for one reason or another.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Houshphandzadeh » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:39:48

shoulda kept ZEKE

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Eem » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:40:39

I mean, wouldn't you consider Jason Grilli a dumpster dive for the Pirates? He was once a hyped prospect whom the Phillies felt was merely organizational depth, and now another organization is reaping the benefits.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:40:47

Phan In Phlorida wrote:I wouldn't classify Victorino or Werth as dumpster dives. Both were considered talented players but their orgs got down on them for different reasons. For Werth, it was the hand/wrist issue. For Victorino, the Dodgers were just stoopid (they felt he was developing behind what they had projected for a drafted 17 year old).

Eh, I see Rule 5 as pretty much the definition of dumpster dive. I could be misrembering, but didn't we even offer Victorino back and the Dodgers were like "Naw man that's cool".

Werth signed for less than a million for one year. It anything we should be arguing the semantics of what "dumpster dive" means because it's clear they were not valued highly by the rest of the league.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:50:32

Dumpster diving normally involves a guy having one good year for you. In the last two seasons we've had Horst, Valdez, Pierre, Kratz, Frandsen and Mayberry isn't bad work for just two seasons. It's probably well above average. If they had held on to Moss and Grilli like I wanted them to they would be pretty damn good in this regard. But Ruben don't listen to me any more.

Looking at the A's, that Donaldson cat is a journeyman having an insane season so far. Crisp is also having an insane great year but he's a career 98 OPS guy who has been hurt a LOT. Reddick has stunk on ice. Chris Young is nothing special and he stinks this year. Jaso is a slightly above average offensive player who can't hit lefties and who is bad defensively.

Cespedes is interesting. He gets hurt a lot. He has mad tools. It looks sometimes like pitchers have figured him out and he looks bad and then he adjusts again. It will be cool to see how the adjusting and readjusting goes with him. He has an OBP of .298. He has two SBs with 5 CS after going 16-4 last year. And it looks like both he and Crisp are dinged up again.

Amaro didn't do a lot of things many here were hollering for him to do. Sign Hamilton and his beautiful left handed swing. Get hurt and bad Youklis. Chase Headley is OPSing .683 and guys wanted to trade our whole farm system for him.

I don't care much about Amaro one way or another. It is pretty fun to look at this stuff though.

It's really easy to pick out guys having career years and saying: why didn't we get this guy? That's what Murphy does in my view. And he's right. Why didn't we just go out and get guys who go on to have career years? It worked in '93. Lol.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby FTN » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:51:19

dumpster diving is picking up a player for less than $1m on a 1 year deal (or a minor league deal)

id say that both victorino and werth qualify. the rule 5 draft costs 50,000 per pick if you keep the player. werth made 850,000 in 2007.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:52:48

Gillick also grabbed lots of actual trash from the dumpster, fyi

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Bucky » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:56:50

FTN wrote:dumpster diving is picking up a player for less than $1m on a 1 year deal (or a minor league deal)


source: Wikipedia

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Barry Jive » Tue Jun 18, 2013 15:58:23

Juan Pierre!
no offense but you are everything that's wrong with America

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:04:47

Grotewold wrote:Gillick also grabbed lots of actual trash from the dumpster, fyi


THE KILLER Zs.

This anointing of Gillick as a genius is kinda funny after reading all the same types of posts about him as we're reading now about Ruin Tommorrow. Lol.

Rod Barajas. Adam Eaton. Pedro Feliz. So Taguchi. Wes Helms. Antonio Alfonseca. Jose Mesa.

All moves lauded here as the work of a pure genius.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:07:56

smitty wrote:
Grotewold wrote:Gillick also grabbed lots of actual trash from the dumpster, fyi


THE KILLER Zs.

This anointing of Gillick as a genius is kinda funny after reading all the same types of posts about him as we're reading now about Ruin Tommorrow. Lol.

Rod Barajas. Adam Eaton. Pedro Feliz. So Taguchi. Wes Helms. Antonio Alfonseca. Jose Mesa.

All moves lauded here as the work of a pure genius.


That first wave of acquisitions was almost comically bad. But of course he earned my undying love with Werth, Stairs, and JOE
Last edited by Grotewold on Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:08:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:07:58

smitty wrote:Dumpster diving normally involves a guy having one good year for you. In the last two seasons we've had Horst, Valdez, Pierre, Kratz, Frandsen and Mayberry isn't bad work for just two seasons.

Mayberry was acquired in November 2008.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby choco » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:15:20

JFLNYC wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:But I also don't see any moves that aren't defensible in some way.


But, swish, this is the kind of thing which drives me crazy. Is that really what the standard is now? That his moves are "defensible in some way?" That the only way a GM can be deemed a failure is if his moves are indefensible? That we're to just sigh and say: "No one stays on top all the time."

I'm not losing any sleep over whether Rube stays or goes, but that sort of defense just seems kind of weak. Whether we like it or not, results do matter. And, even if we cut him some slack on the results as long as the process is good, this is a guy who apparently is not all that big on process either. He doesn't have to have a 5-year plan, but he's got to have some good plan.

He's all too often IMO shrugged his shoulders at the future, e.g., by always seeming to give the extra year to Ibanez, Polanco, Moyer, etc. I would argue that his foresight and anticipation are not good enough, which is why he's gotten caught in a real bind on more than one occasion. For example, he had to trade Lee because he hadn't left himself any maneuverability with his payroll. Then, ironically enough, when Lee fell into his lap, he didn't have enough in reserve to replace his most productive hitter. That sort of thing is a failure of process IMO.

I know we've gotten to the point where we're not changing any minds around here on this issue. I may be too critical of the job Rube has done, but others (and I'm not pointing at you, swish) don't seem to want to hold him to a standard of excellence. He's not some guy sweeping floors who happens to have a bad day. He's got one of only 30 jobs like his in the world. I think he deserves to be held to a really high standard. And, frankly, I think he'd say the same thing if you asked him.


One thing that Murphy didn't talk about was that second year for Moyer. Amaro could've easily gone to arbitration with Moyer and he might've made 8-10 million. He had a pretty good 2008 season, but he was still 45 years old. Why was Amaro so afraid of arbitration that he gave a 45 year old pitcher a 2 year deal? Did the Ryan Howard 10 million dollar arbitration win for 2008 scar him so much that he wanted cost certainty so much after 2008? Anyway, because he gave Moyer a 2 year deal, Moyer ate 8 million in salary in 2010. Cliff Lee's 2010 salary was 9 million. If Amaro did not sign Moyer to a 2 year deal, he would've had enough payroll to trade for Halladay and keep Lee in 2010. Also, no need to trade for Oswalt in 2010 either. If you don't have Oswalt on the 2011 roster, you might have enough money to re-sign Lee plus a hitter, so no need for that Pence trade.

Amaro doesn't seem to have a plan because he reacts to situations that he puts himself in.
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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby smitty » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:16:57

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
smitty wrote:Dumpster diving normally involves a guy having one good year for you. In the last two seasons we've had Horst, Valdez, Pierre, Kratz, Frandsen and Mayberry isn't bad work for just two seasons.

Mayberry was acquired in November 2008.


I know. He is a dumpster dive that continues to be OK. I meant these are the dumpster dives who were on the team the last two seasons who did good. (Not a crystal clear sentence by me) There may have been one or two more. Thome actually wasn't bad because he got some hits and then we got two possible prospects for him.

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:19:03

swishnicholson wrote:Relevant to nothing, I really wish you would change your avatar. You make really good points and strong arguments, but I always have to make an effort to lower my hackles because I think Dallas Green is poking his finger in my chest and calling me a stupid M-F. And then I feel awful for hating him when I remember the terrible thing that happened to his granddaughter. It makes it so hard to maintain the equilibrium and poise I always strive for.


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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby Grotewold » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:19:19

choco wrote:Amaro doesn't seem to have a plan because he reacts to situations that he puts himself in.


I basically agree with that, although the ownership could have just allowed Lee's $9M in 2010. Since they took the payroll way up thereafter.

He's never really been in this situation before, though, maybe he'll pleasantly surprise us

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Re: Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

Postby joe table » Tue Jun 18, 2013 16:22:48

Eem wrote:I mean, wouldn't you consider Jason Grilli a dumpster dive for the Pirates? He was once a hyped prospect whom the Phillies felt was merely organizational depth, and now another organization is reaping the benefits.


Well we signed him under Rube's watch. And Moss. And Vogelsong? (or was that Gillicks last year?) Obviously the fact that we didn't, you know, KEEP them is something to hold against Rube, but identifying talented guys like that on cheap deals is something at least. Or maybe not. I honestly don't know

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