Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

by **Eem** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:05:13

My hope from Howard's hot streak is that they find a team dumb enough to take him

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:06:04

dajafi wrote:Most of the moves he made were defensible; I defended a lot of them. But events proved him wrong with sufficient consistency that it's fair to argue that his evaluation approach is fundamentally flawed. He overvalues pitching, cost certainty and intangibles.

this is somewhat frustrating to me. we're about process over results like 90% of the time here, except when it comes to bashing Phillies management

I don't love Rube as a GM or anything, but we have been very injured over the past two seasons. that's predictable to a certain extent because our guys are old, but our DL has gone above and beyond. (and you guys are all going to give the Nats a universal pass for their injuries if they miss the playoffs)

moreover, everyone is talking about the myriad options Rube had, the opportunity costs, etc. as if that didn't mean signing BJ Upton for like 80% of you and Josh Hamilton for a good half as well

by **td11** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:10:57

yeah but LANCE BERKMAN won the cardinals a world series for 7 million dollars

by **JFLNYC** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:20:16

$8MM.

by **Soren** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:22:15

I think we can all agree Rube has rolled snake eyes on every gamble and you cringe every time he talks.

by **td11** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:22:44

and when i leave come together like butt cheeks

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:26:45

dajafi wrote:Most of the moves he made were defensible; I defended a lot of them. But events proved him wrong with sufficient consistency that it's fair to argue that his evaluation approach is fundamentally flawed. He overvalues pitching, cost certainty and intangibles.
.

Yes, I didn't like many/most of the moves, but there were fair arguments to be made for many of them. The problem is that hardly any have turned out well, and most people get fired for sustained poor decision-making.

dajafi wrote:I don't think it's fair to assert that he undervalues prospects, despite the vicious and clever nickname. Of all the ones he's dealt away, only a couple look likely to burn us, and his drafts seem likely to turn out better than Gillick's. But he's not Logan White or Jeff Luhnow either.
.

I think it's strange that many will say this. Ruben will often get credit for trading away guys that didn't amount to much, but then get credit in a backhanded way by people saying that he could not have foreseen Howard's decline. I don't think people (not you, just speaking generally) can have it both ways. The prospects he traded had value at the time. The fact that they sputtered and failed to develop is kinda irrelevant unless you're going to apply the same logic to his the guys he kept or got in return, who have also failed to produce.

I just go back to the big picture. He inherited a team with a ton of payroll flexibility, arguably the best core in baseball, and a minors that most experts agreed had more than their share of prospects. It had to be the dream job of every GM out there. Usually GMs come into bad situations and have to make changes to turn things around. Ruben didn't have that dilemma. He had the ability to pick and choose his moves with much fewer constraints than his colleagues. He had more flexibility at his fingertips than maybe any other GM in the game. I get really tired of hearing how hard his job was and how he had so few moves available to him. If the Phillies job was hard, he should try the Royals or Astros or Mets jobs. Heck, even our ownership is easy to deal with.

dajafi wrote:Basically he's a GM in the Gillick mode but an inferior evaluator. He combines Gillick's old school approach with Wade's arrogance. And while everybody points to the Howard deal and Pence trade as the fatal mistakes, they're only that because of all the smaller mistakes. That's Murphy's point.

Agreed. I only take issue with the idea that he's like Gillick. Gillick and Ruben do share a focus on old school things, but Gillick had a very different approach to building a team. Gillick said repeatedly that he liked to take a balanced approach to building a team. That is the very opposite of what Rube has done. Rube has thrown most of his resources into pitching at a time when pitching is good all around the league. He let the offense erode and stuck in guys who have never played well or are past their primes and hoped he would find lightning in a bottle. Some of it is due to Gillick's better evaluation skills, but some of it is due to focus.

by **Shore** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:15:47

Houshphandzadeh wrote:
dajafi wrote:Most of the moves he made were defensible; I defended a lot of them. But events proved him wrong with sufficient consistency that it's fair to argue that his evaluation approach is fundamentally flawed. He overvalues pitching, cost certainty and intangibles.

this is somewhat frustrating to me. we're about process over results like 90% of the time here, except when it comes to bashing Phillies management

I don't love Rube as a GM or anything, but we have been very injured over the past two seasons. that's predictable to a certain extent because our guys are old, but our DL has gone above and beyond. (and you guys are all going to give the Nats a universal pass for their injuries if they miss the playoffs)

moreover, everyone is talking about the myriad options Rube had, the opportunity costs, etc. as if that didn't mean signing BJ Upton for like 80% of you and Josh Hamilton for a good half as well

I agree re: process over results. I just disagree that his moves were/are defensible from that position.

Ruben signed something like 3 of the 4 worst-hitting OF/DH players in the American League last year. It hasn't worked out. That's not a good process / bad result. That's a bad process / predictable result.

Had he signed Hamilton, or Upton, or both, the only real debate would have been length of contract and money. From a talent and production perspective, they would have been entirely defensible moves (again, excepting cost arguments). Had they both failed HERE, it would have been a clear example of a good process / bad result, at least from the talent evaluation aspect.

Whatever, our team kinda stinks, isn't much fun to watch, and is not, as currently assembled, going to be better next year. I want change. And I don't mean manager. I'd prefer a new GM, then new players, but at the very least, we need to leverage things like expensive closers into 21-year-olds who rake at AAA.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:32:38

But if you're that down on the team, why would you have wanted them to add an expensive free agent in December?

I don't think the 'process' thinking was for those new hitters to come in here and rake but rather to complement a hopefully healthy and productive core (including Halladay). That hasn't worked out, but I think it was a defensible course of action in December. If things break right, we contend, if not, no baggage to carry into 2014.

Now, whether we should have been so beholden to the core is another story. But who among them would you have severed ties with other than Howard?

by **Shore** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:44:08

Grotewold wrote:But if you're that down on the team, why would you have wanted them to add an expensive free agent in December?

I don't think the 'process' thinking was for those new hitters to come in here and rake but rather to complement a hopefully healthy and productive core (including Halladay). That hasn't worked out, but I think it was a defensible course of action in December. If things break right, we contend, if not, no baggage to carry into 2014.

Now, whether we should have been so beholden to the core is another story. But who among them would you have severed ties with other than Howard?

Howard and Chooch, for sure. Rollins, if I thought the deal helped 2014+ (i.e., not just to deal Rollins).

"If things break right" translates to "if 3 of the worst 4 hitters at their positions are at least league-average offensively, and the 2 that are actually DHs can man 3B and RF on an every day basis, AND the aging core unages..."

It was a shitty plan.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:46:33

Shore wrote:Howard and Chooch, for sure. Rollins, if I thought the deal helped 2014+ (i.e., not just to deal Rollins).

"If things break right" translates to "if 3 of the worst 4 hitters at their positions are at least league-average offensively, and the 2 that are actually DHs can man 3B and RF on an every day basis, AND the aging core unages..."

It was a shitty plan.

I do remember you mentioning Chooch this time last year, and that it was time for a major revamp.

Disagree on "things break right." A healthy Halladay and Utley and Ruiz would have made a big difference. I guess we have to expect nagging injuries for Howard from now on, but I personally did not in the winter, I was fairly optimistic.

But I guess my larger point is that by 2011, we were wedded to those guys. You can criticize Rube for wishing for the best or turning a blind eye, but what was the alternative? You can't just release them and sign two or three stars

by **MoBettle** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:51:11

Did anyone honestly think Halladay and (especially) utley were going to be healthy all year?

by **Grotewold** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:53:06

MoBettle wrote:Did anyone honestly think Halladay and (especially) utley were going to be healthy all year?

I was worried about Doc but hopeful he could post like a 4 ERA and win 12-13 games. But what difference did it make, team planning wise? Should they have signed Greinke? Same for Utley

by **LongDrive** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 13:00:00

Grotewold wrote:In the 25 games following the cortisone shot, Howard is at .326/.394/.512/.906, 99 PA, 2 HR, 14 RBI, albeit with a crazy BABIP. Between this and the late April streak, it gives me hope there's still something left in there

Charlie just told Mike & Ike he's going to hit 35 Hr's this year.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 13:02:09

LongDrive wrote:
Grotewold wrote:In the 25 games following the cortisone shot, Howard is at .326/.394/.512/.906, 99 PA, 2 HR, 14 RBI, albeit with a crazy BABIP. Between this and the late April streak, it gives me hope there's still something left in there

Charlie just told Mike & Ike he's going to hit 35 Hr's this year.

by **swishnicholson** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 13:11:03

I find plenty of things to disagree with Amaro about, and sometimes I'm even right.But I also don't see any moves that aren't defensible in some way. I generally just think some context is always necessary. The other 2008 playoff teams were the Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Rays, Red Sox Angels and White Sox. Presumably they all had a good talent base at that time, and certainly many of these markets have great financial resources. And yet not one of these has been as successful as the Phillies over the period of time Amaro has been GM. That hardly means he's a genius but I do think it means that if someone thinks he stands out as an idiot among his peers he's being a little too hyperbolic. Unless he dismisses all GMs as idiots, which is a view I don't find to be very interesting.

No one stays on top all the time. It just doesn't happen, and the test is how you react to the decline. The comparisons to Gillick are apt, I think, though how much is similarity and how much is actually listening to direct advice I'm not sure. Neither is shy about moving prospects or giving up draft picks in order to gain established players to help put them over the top. Eventually, of course, the cupboard gets bare and the team declines. They're different in that this is the point at which Gillick would typically retire while Amaro is staying the course. Maybe it's inertia, maybe it's arrogance that he can rebuild a winner, maybe it's just confidence that the organization has the resources to recover. I'm a little dubious that the right scouting and evaluation people are in place to necessarily make this happen, and that's his responsibility too. But I'm not even a little anxious to see him gone until more time has passed and a clearer picture emerges of what the future will look like.

by **Bucky** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 13:16:21

this past offseason was the only disaster IMO. We had three holes to fill, and he went with three risky propositions. Revere had the highest upside, so how much does that say. He needed to fill at least one of those holes with a decent major leaguer somehow, even if it meant going to the farm for the other two. Of course, the Youngs and 'lil Ben could play like all stars from here on out and make him look prescient. As long as he doesn't steal my dog's golden poop.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 13:55:52

CHOOOOOOOCH

by **BigEd76** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 14:02:23

JakeDiekman
Mac and Cheese from Boston Market is unbelievable!

JustinDeFratus
@JakeDiekman you're unbelievable

pals

by **Bucky** » Tue Jun 18, 2013 14:02:49

literal LOL

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