Bucky wrote:this past offseason was the only disaster IMO. We had three holes to fill, and he went with three risky propositions. Revere had the highest upside, so how much does that say. He needed to fill at least one of those holes with a decent major leaguer somehow, even if it meant going to the farm for the other two. Of course, the Youngs and 'lil Ben could play like all stars from here on out and make him look prescient. As long as he doesn't steal my dog's golden poop.

See, I think this off-season wasn't all that bad. Many here assumed the team was going to need a lot to break its way to contend anyway, and it's entirely possible that Amaro concluded the same thing. The pieces he added this off-season have, by and large, been atrocious, but none of them are going to hurt the team long-term, either. Revere might be on his way to legitimately helping.

BigEd76 wrote:

JakeDiekman
Mac and Cheese from Boston Market is unbelievable!

JustinDeFratus
@JakeDiekman you're unbelievable

pals

I have a feeling they're doing each other.

Eem wrote:Revere might be on his way to legitimately helping.

He's well on his way to being decent/helpful. Lannan could too if he stays healthy. I bet MYoung will end up neutral, all things considered. DYoung has been what could have been expected and, to this point, overused. Hopefully the Youngs don't bogart PT if we fall way out of it

Adams is the most important to me. Took a risk that hasn't paid off yet, but relatively low-stakes

The thing I liked (term used loosely) best about the off season moves was how they left 2014 and beyond alone (except for Adams). I wasn't comfortable with any of the big off season trade or free agent possibilities and am really happy now the Phillies didn't pull the trigger on any of them. The off season moves have not helped the team contend this season but I don't consider them disasters. They were low probability of marginal reward at low risk and have so far been unsurprisingly disappointing. There are about a dozen other moves they could have made that I would have considered disasters. I can't think of one realistic move I wish they made. The bad moves that had the biggest impact on this season were made years ago and I'm glad that Amaro did not double down on them. None of the moves fixed any problems this year but they didn't make any future years worse. I'm still probably foolishly holding out hope that things turn around this year.

Michael Young is now approaching 1000 PA of sub-replacement level baseball. I really don't see that as neutral or getting to neutral.

Schierholtz for Delmon has been worth about -2.5 wins so far.

As you all know, I hate Amaro and concede my bias, but I don't think any of the moves this season (save Revere trade) was defensible. Not when you are entering the final stages of a window to compete for these core players. Hedging your bet is a great way to get to 80 wins. I don't know what I would have done and maybe I would have done a worse job, but I know I wouldn't have done what Amaro did.

Grotewold wrote:

Eem wrote:Revere might be on his way to legitimately helping.

He's well on his way to being decent/helpful. Lannan could too if he stays healthy. I bet MYoung will end up neutral, all things considered. DYoung has been what could have been expected and, to this point, overused. Hopefully the Youngs don't bogart PT if we fall way out of it

Adams is the most important to me. Took a risk that hasn't paid off yet, but relatively low-stakes

Yeah, I'm not sure how to evaluate the bullpen moves in general. I thought it would be much better than it has, simply because we had enough options with young arms. I mean, you could quibble with Durbin, but that's not really such a big deal. I would think Amaro also thought it would be quite a bit better (whereas I think the other moves have fallen into the expected parameters). I'm not sure whether it's more bad luck or bad evaluation, but it certainly hasn't worked out so far.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:that's predictable to a certain extent because our guys are old, but our DL has gone above and beyond. (and you guys are all going to give the Nats a universal pass for their injuries if they miss the playoffs)

Hell no. They had a mediocre offense last year. They acquired Span and suddenly had a 4-man OF (Span-Harper-Werth-Morse). Adam LaRoche was a free agent, but they resigned him for 2/$22 ($15M mutual option or $2M buyout for 2015). So they suddenly had a bit of a logjam, but they also have two guys (Werth and Morse) who have been banged up and another guy (Harper) whose style of play screams for DL time. Instead of going into the season with depth and then waiting to see if they can trade Morse in July if everyone is healthy, they traded him for two pitching prospects (one of whom is a 25 y.o. at AA) and a PTBNL who turned out to be a reliever.

So unless Ian Krol (who was the PTBNL in that deal) insanely overperforms, that move did nothing to help them in 2013. If they miss the playoffs by a couple of games, it's safe to say that trade was a direct cause.

I'm definitely not letting them off the hook for that. Shockingly, they could've used Morse when Werth and Harper were both on the DL. He has a better OPS+ than LaRoche anyway despite changing leagues and playing on a terrible offensive team in a terrible offensive park.

swishnicholson wrote:But I also don't see any moves that aren't defensible in some way.

But, swish, this is the kind of thing which drives me crazy. Is that really what the standard is now? That his moves are "defensible in some way?" That the only way a GM can be deemed a failure is if his moves are indefensible? That we're to just sigh and say: "No one stays on top all the time."

I'm not losing any sleep over whether Rube stays or goes, but that sort of defense just seems kind of weak. Whether we like it or not, results do matter. And, even if we cut him some slack on the results as long as the process is good, this is a guy who apparently is not all that big on process either. He doesn't have to have a 5-year plan, but he's got to have some good plan.

He's all too often IMO shrugged his shoulders at the future, e.g., by always seeming to give the extra year to Ibanez, Polanco, Moyer, etc. I would argue that his foresight and anticipation are not good enough, which is why he's gotten caught in a real bind on more than one occasion. For example, he had to trade Lee because he hadn't left himself any maneuverability with his payroll. Then, ironically enough, when Lee fell into his lap, he didn't have enough in reserve to replace his most productive hitter. That sort of thing is a failure of process IMO.

I know we've gotten to the point where we're not changing any minds around here on this issue. I may be too critical of the job Rube has done, but others (and I'm not pointing at you, swish) don't seem to want to hold him to a standard of excellence. He's not some guy sweeping floors who happens to have a bad day. He's got one of only 30 jobs like his in the world. I think he deserves to be held to a really high standard. And, frankly, I think he'd say the same thing if you asked him.

JFLNYC wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:But I also don't see any moves that aren't defensible in some way.

But, swish, this is the kind of thing which drives me crazy. Is that really what the standard is now? That his moves are "defensible in some way?" That the only way a GM can be deemed a failure is if his moves are indefensible? That we're to just sigh and say: "No one stays on top all the time."

I'm not losing any sleep over whether Rube stays or goes, but that sort of defense just seems kind of weak. Whether we like it or not, results do matter. And, even if we cut him some slack on the results as long as the process is good, this is a guy who apparently is not all that big on process either. He doesn't have to have a 5-year plan, but he's got to have some good plan.

He's all too often IMO shrugged his shoulders at the future, e.g., by always seeming to give the extra year to Ibanez, Polanco, Moyer, etc. I would argue that his foresight and anticipation are not good enough, which is why he's gotten caught in a real bind on more than one occasion. For example, he had to trade Lee because he hadn't left himself any maneuverability with his payroll. Then, ironically enough, when Lee fell into his lap, he didn't have enough in reserve to replace his most productive hitter. That sort of thing is a failure of process IMO.

I know we've gotten to the point where we're not changing any minds around here on this issue. I may be too critical of the job Rube has done, but others (and I'm not pointing at you, swish) don't seem to want to hold him to a standard of excellence. He's not some guy sweeping floors who happens to have a bad day. He's got one of only 30 jobs like his in the world. I think he deserves to be held to a really high standard. And, frankly, I think he'd say the same thing if you asked him.

I think this is really well put. Amaro is the steward of this organization. If there's no 3B or LF or MR in the organization, that's on Amaro. He's been GM for 5 years. This is his organization and his job doesn't just consist of making trades and signing big dollar FA. He has completely whiffed on Japan and Cuba. The league is full of guys who were signed cheaply or post-hype prospects that were snatched up and doing well, and presumably could have been obtained of little (Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Coco Crisp, Edward Encarnacion, Daniel Nava, Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, Nate McLouth, Aoki, Grilli, Shawn Kelley, Jim Henderson, Tazawa, Uehara, and on and on). We don't have these guys.

I don't think anyone here thinks he's performing up to expectations. That's why these discussions are so damn stale.

to a large extent, this is all just hot air.

either the front office has a plan or they dont. if they have a plan, i dont know what it is. was it to try and improve incrementally in 2013 with small additions, hope for bouncebacks from their old, injured players and squeeze in to the playoffs? if that was the goal for 2013, was that with one eye on 2014 where they plan to spend big and really turn over the roster? that hasn't been made clear either. its tough to get burned when you make a lot of small, inconsequential deals. but making a lot of small deals, when you have a largely average team, also doesn't really give you a great chance of challenging for the division for 162 games. our roster needed a lot of work after last season. it needed a lot of work at the beginning of spring training, and it still needs work now. and imagine if dom brown hadn't completely come out of nowhere and had a huge first half. i dont think anyone was realistically expecting him to produce what he has.

what is the plan for next year? rube admitted in that long piece that the free agent market isnt what it used to be. okay. so what is the plan? because the farm system lacks impact talent as well, especially impact talent close to the big leagues. are we going to shop in the bargain bin again next winter? maybe hes being super secretive and he has it all mapped out. but it appears the plan last winter was basically to tread water. we're barely treading water now. what is the plan for next year? or the year after?

i understand things change quickly in this game, but if hes not even looking a year in to the future, you have to question his ability to run a major league baseball team.

FTN wrote:but if hes not even looking a year in to the future, you have to question his ability to run a major league baseball team.

But why would anyone conclude that after the results of the last 12 months? He sold two of his best hitters last year and made very few post-2013 commitments

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:but if hes not even looking a year in to the future, you have to question his ability to run a major league baseball team.

But why would anyone conclude that after the results of the last 12 months? He sold two of his best hitters last year and made very few post-2013 commitments

at this rate, he'll be gone after the season and we'll hire a sam hinkie type.

#RIPiggybrandpencevic

Barry Jive wrote:I don't think anyone here thinks he's performing up to expectations. That's why these discussions are so damn stale.

True, true. I just get irked by the strawman argument that the choices were Michael Young or BJ Upton. Delmon Young or Josh Hamilton.

The Oakland A's are in 1st place. They have 72 runs more than the Phillies. They have a DH, but they also play in a tough runs park. Here is the lineup:

Crisp
Jaso
Cespedes
Donaldson
Reddick
Lowrie
Smith/Chris Young
Moss
random 2B filler guy (Sogard/Rosales)

Every single one of those guys except for DOnaldson was as equally available to Ruben Amaro as Billy Beane over the last two years, and my guess is that Donaldson could have been acquired cheaply prior to his breakout this year. There are players available.

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:but if hes not even looking a year in to the future, you have to question his ability to run a major league baseball team.

But why would anyone conclude that after the results of the last 12 months? He sold two of his best hitters last year and made very few post-2013 commitments

That's not a plan. It could be the beginning of a plan, but where's the rest of it and how's it working out so far? And, frankly, I could argue that selling off Vic & Pence was not the beginning of a plan to improve, but merely a desperate move to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold as a result of poor planning.

JFLNYC wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:but if hes not even looking a year in to the future, you have to question his ability to run a major league baseball team.

But why would anyone conclude that after the results of the last 12 months? He sold two of his best hitters last year and made very few post-2013 commitments

That's not a plan. It could be the beginning of a plan, but where's the rest of it and how's it working out so far? And, frankly, I could argue that selling off Vic & Pence was not the beginning of a plan to improve, but merely a desperate move to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold as a result of poor planning.

I was saying one shouldn't conclude there is no plan, not that there definitely or obviously was one. I think selling your best hitter for 2013 and acquiring no one costly and getting as many prospects and draft picks as possible is indicative of a plan. I realize it could turn out to just be the unwinding of payroll, but I doubt it. We'll see

Trent Steele wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:I don't think anyone here thinks he's performing up to expectations. That's why these discussions are so damn stale.

True, true. I just get irked by the strawman argument that the choices were Michael Young or BJ Upton. Delmon Young or Josh Hamilton.

The Oakland A's are in 1st place. They have 72 runs more than the Phillies. They have a DH, but they also play in a tough runs park. Here is the lineup:

Crisp
Jaso
Cespedes
Donaldson
Reddick
Lowrie
Smith/Chris Young
Moss
random 2B filler guy (Sogard/Rosales)

Every single one of those guys except for DOnaldson was as equally available to Ruben Amaro as Billy Beane over the last two years, and my guess is that Donaldson could have been acquired cheaply prior to his breakout this year. There are players available.

Beane did some good dumpster diving, yes, but A's aren't doing shit this year. Beane also traded 23 year old Cargo for 90 games of Holiday, then got Bret Wallass back for him. That's worse than the Pentz trade

joe table wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:I don't think anyone here thinks he's performing up to expectations. That's why these discussions are so damn stale.

True, true. I just get irked by the strawman argument that the choices were Michael Young or BJ Upton. Delmon Young or Josh Hamilton.

The Oakland A's are in 1st place. They have 72 runs more than the Phillies. They have a DH, but they also play in a tough runs park. Here is the lineup:

Crisp
Jaso
Cespedes
Donaldson
Reddick
Lowrie
Smith/Chris Young
Moss
random 2B filler guy (Sogard/Rosales)

Every single one of those guys except for DOnaldson was as equally available to Ruben Amaro as Billy Beane over the last two years, and my guess is that Donaldson could have been acquired cheaply prior to his breakout this year. There are players available.

Beane did some good dumpster diving, yes, but A's aren't doing shit this year. Beane also traded 23 year old Cargo for 90 games of Holiday, then got Bret Walls back for him. That's worse than the Pentz trade

I'm not saying Beane is awesome. Just that there are always Werth-like players out there and saying that Amaro had no options is nonsense.

"Dumpster diving" is a really good way to build a winner these days. Shit, look at the Phillies in 2008. Victorino, Werth, Romero, Stairs, Dobbs, Coste, Durbin, Moyer, Eyre were ALL dumpster dives to varying degrees.

Feliz was a cheap option at 3B who fit perfectly into the lineup because he could pick it and could pop the occasional homer behind high OBP guys.

Amaro has failed miserably at this aspect of his job, with the exception of Mayberry and Kratz. EDIT: Also, Frandsen. I'll give credit there too.

Eem wrote:"Dumpster diving" is a really good way to build a winner these days. Shit, look at the Phillies in 2008. Victorino, Werth, Romero, Stairs, Dobbs, Coste, Durbin, Moyer, Eyre were ALL dumpster dives to varying degrees.

Feliz was a cheap option at 3B who fit perfectly into the lineup because he could pick it and could pop the occasional homer behind high OBP guys.

Amaro has failed miserably at this aspect of his job, with the exception of Mayberry and Kratz.

When you have $130m tied up in like 7 players, being bad at dumpster diving is a problem.