Productive Outs - Phillies Random Thoughts

by **bleh** » Fri May 24, 2013 16:26:15

Trent Steele wrote:
pacino wrote:RBI men usually also walk a lot. Quite the conundrum for smug

Being the smart guy that he is, he managed to find a way out of that pickle. It was a $125m pickle, however.

Don't forget Delmon, too.

by **joe table** » Fri May 24, 2013 19:06:45

Trent Steele wrote:
pacino wrote:RBI men usually also walk a lot. Quite the conundrum for smug

Being the smart guy that he is, he managed to find a way out of that pickle. It was a $125m pickle, however.

Rube anticipated that monetary policy would lead to hyperinflation, making that contract a drop in the bucket in upcoming years. I guess you didn't go to Stanford

by **Napalm** » Fri May 24, 2013 20:13:12

Miami Marlins pitcher Alex Sanabia says he didn't know it was illegal to spit on the ball, the way he did Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Cameras caught Sanabia spitting on the ball after the Phillies' Domonic Brown homered off him during the second inning of Monday's game in Miami. He said Friday before the Marlins' game against the Chicago White Sox he hasn't been contacted by Major League Baseball about what he did.

He says he did it to get a better grip on the ball, and not to get more movement on his pitches.

Sanabia says that was the first time he spit on the ball, and that he did it because the ball was "super slick."

by **pacino** » Fri May 24, 2013 21:30:16

Pretty common knowledge that a spitball is illegal.

by **The B1G Piece** » Sat May 25, 2013 09:04:05

He should have known that if he watched Little Big League.

by **cartersDad26** » Sat May 25, 2013 10:25:15

Space Cadet

by **Ace Rothstein** » Sat May 25, 2013 19:05:30

despite not playing in 20 games so far this year, Galvis is 2nd on the team in WAR(BR) for position players

by **Doll Is Mine** » Sat May 25, 2013 22:37:52

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki
RHP B.J. Rosenberg optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA). Adams will be activated tomorrow.

by **smitty** » Sat May 25, 2013 22:39:54

I will miss Rosenberg's 96 MPH fastball and double digit ERA.

by **bury me** » Sat May 25, 2013 22:49:29

how on Earth will Howard look in 4 years? oh man

by **Doll Is Mine** » Sat May 25, 2013 23:11:13

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
The Phillies are 14-8 when Ryan Howard strikes out four or more times. Baseball.

by **The B1G Piece** » Sun May 26, 2013 10:33:13

Domonic Brown is turning into a nice offensive player.

by **etched Chaos** » Sun May 26, 2013 10:39:17

The B1G Piece wrote:Domonic Brown is turning into a nice offensive player.

Leads team in HR's and RBI's, has a .772 OPS too. To think he might be the first phil to hit double figures in homers.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Sun May 26, 2013 10:42:50

The B1G Piece wrote:Domonic Brown is turning into a nice offensive player.

seidman had a good thought about him. being aggressive early in the count has enabled him to show his power. now he'll have confidence it's there when he starts working counts again and looking for his pitch.

by **Wheels Tupay** » Sun May 26, 2013 11:06:24

The Reds are 16-5 this month but only 1-2 vs your Phillies

by **swishnicholson** » Sun May 26, 2013 11:14:41

ReadingPhilly wrote:
The B1G Piece wrote:Domonic Brown is turning into a nice offensive player.

seidman had a good though about him. being aggressive early in the count has enabled him to show his power. now he'll have confidence it's there when he starts working counts again and looking for his pitch.

I'm one of those people who find the harping on walks a little tiresome. Not that I don't like them, but those focused on them seem to approach a shortage of walks like social conservatives do homosexuality-as something wholly by choice and representing a moral failure.

Nevertheless, the fact that Brown has yet to draw a walk in the month of May (86 PA) is puzzling if not troubling. But if he keeps ripping the ball that's fine with me.

by **Bucky** » Sun May 26, 2013 11:27:13

isn't the overarching point that guys who rarely walk can't sustain good offensive numbers because the pitchers eventually figure out "hey, i really don't need to throw this dude good pitches"?

by **etched Chaos** » Sun May 26, 2013 11:28:29

Bucky wrote:isn't the overarching point that guys who rarely walk can't sustain good offensive numbers because the pitchers eventually figure out "hey, i really don't need to throw this dude good pitches"?

Not really sure this applies to Dom, he's had some real good AB's this month, he's not swinging wildly and getting a ridic amount of good babip.

by **Soren** » Sun May 26, 2013 11:46:26

his BABIP hasn't been ridiculous this month though, it's sitting at .279 over the last 28 days, .273 the last 14.

.291/.291/.570 in May. Really, the XBH are great (11 this month :!:

) but he's only worth so much if he doesn't take some fucking walks.

by **Shore** » Sun May 26, 2013 11:53:10

swishnicholson wrote:But if he keeps ripping the ball that's fine with me.

You just can't make an out every time you don't get a hit, particularly if you hit .260.

The lack of walks are disturbing because it means guys make outs 70% of the time, instead of 65%. It's a math problem, and its cumulative, which is why lots of people hate it.

Given a team of .350 OBP vs .300 OBP players, the higher OBP team will get on base once more per 20 PA. (.35 to .30, .05 difference, 1 in 20)
But, they'll get 2 consecutive guys on base 36% more often. (.30*.30=0.09, .35*.35=.1225)
3 consecutive runners on 59% more often.
And the same kind of cumulative effect holds for contexts that make more sense (3 runners on in an inning, 4 in an inning, etc.)

The Reds are hitting .255 as a team, and slugging .401. The Cubs are hitting .246, but slugging .406. Similar. The Reds actually strike out more, and the Cubs steal more bases, similar DP rate, etc, so they'd be pretty even, without considering walks. Reds are first in the league, 194. Cubs are last in the league, 108. Gives an OBP difference of .336 to .299. Even with everything else pretty damned close, the Reds outscore the Cubs by a run per game - 4.84 to 3.85.

Increasing their scoring by 1 run per game would put the Cubs at about 28-20 (Pythagorean WL%) instead of 23-25 (actual record is 18-30). 5 wins in 48 games. Without changing pitching, or defense, or bullpen, or manager. Just extending innings, extending games, giving the offense more opportunities to score.

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