I Don't Care About Walks - Phillies Random Thoughts

by **nycphils** » Sun May 05, 2013 11:32:06

If Ruiz hits decently, I think you can get something good for him as well. Same with Rollins from someone like SF. Papelbon I'm skeptical, and Howard we're stuck with.

The key with these guys may be taking an A ball guy (a Santana type) who has more failure potential rather than someone more advanced who's already proven at AA.

by **Grotewold** » Sun May 05, 2013 11:57:45

nycphils wrote:The key with these guys may be taking an A ball guy (a Santana type) who has more failure potential rather than someone more advanced who's already proven at AA.

I don't know who we have who fits that profile, value-wise. But even if so, at that point aren't you better off having the guy play for you next year and trying to trade him again with the contract more palatable and, if that doesn't work, getting a draft pick?

I guess what I'm really saying is if this is a "full rebuild" where you're bringing in prospects and not signing free agents, there's really no need to "dump" payroll. I'd exhaust all options for bringing back value and, in the meantime, field a better team. As I wrote last page, there will be plenty of job openings if a prospect is ready for one.

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:20:02

I'd just like to point out the Nationals aren't really that young. Yes, Harper and Strasburg (and their unproven prospects) are young (plus, I guess Wilson Ramos at 25), but the rest of their current core is at their prime or in decline. Further, they really haven't looked much better than the Phillies this year.

by **Grotewold** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:37:48

Polar Bear Phan wrote:I'd just like to point out the Nationals aren't really that young. Yes, Harper and Strasburg (and their unproven prospects) are young (plus, I guess Wilson Ramos at 25), but the rest of their current core is at their prime or in decline. Further, they really haven't looked much better than the Phillies this year.

Zimmermann and Gio are young but won't be cheap for long. I'm not convinced that market has strengthened to the point of the max payrolls it'll take to keep it together

Atlanta will be good but not a juggernaut

by **JFLNYC** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:39:16

Grotewold wrote:Will keeping Papelbon another year -- rather than "dumping" him for nothing -- block anyone? I don't think so. Aumont hasn't even grabbed the 7th-inning reins. I'm fine with freeing up an infield spot by moving Rollins, but it would take a real blue chipper for me to want to move Utley. The outfield and third base and catcher (either as starter or working in slowly like Ruiz did) positions are wide open under my plan. Two or three rotation spots would be open depending on Lee and Halladay.

I guess I just don't see the upside in moving good players if you're not getting anything back, since payroll flexibility isn't going to be the issue moving forward.

Not to put too fine a point on it, Grote, but I think you may be looking at things a bit too narrowly. First, I wouldn't get too fixated on the "dumping" concept. I don't think that's the prevailing position. Second, Papelbon is different from Utley, Doc & Chooch since he's got 2 more years on his contract.

Even with Papelbon, though, if you could get a really good RH hitting OF prospect and you had to include Papelbon, why wouldn't you do it? If you think that the Phils are going to contend in '14 & '15 you might want to keep him. But you don't think they will contend, having the highest-paid closer in baseball for two more years likely into his decline seems IMO to be a serious misallocation of resources. Why keep your Porsche when you need the money to replace the foundation of your house?

So, if you get the opportunity to turn him into a prospect who you project could be in his prime when the Phils do contend again, the logical thing is to move Papelbon. That prospect might be a young hitter, in which case you give an Aumont or a DeFratus a real opportunity to close. Or, even if you just trade Papelbon for a prospect who might turn into Papelbon in 2-3 years, you make the trade for two reasons: (1) The guy you get will be in his prime years when you next contend, whereas Papelbon will likely either be gone or ineffective; and (2) You use the substantial resources you save from trading Paplebon to address other needs.

As in any rebuilding process, there's going to be trial and error. Some prospects you acquire or develop will pan out, others won't. The longer you wait to get that process started, the longer it's going to take for it to bear fruit.

by **Grotewold** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:40:44

I said I'm open to moving Papelbon, Lee, and Rollins (and possibly others) if we're out of contention and prime prospects come back.

I'm against dumping payroll. No sub-prime for our toxic assets!

by **PTOITWCFTPP** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:41:24

Grotewold wrote:
Polar Bear Phan wrote:I'd just like to point out the Nationals aren't really that young. Yes, Harper and Strasburg (and their unproven prospects) are young (plus, I guess Wilson Ramos at 25), but the rest of their current core is at their prime or in decline. Further, they really haven't looked much better than the Phillies this year.

Zimmermann and Gio are young but won't be cheap for long. I'm not convinced that market has strengthened to the point of the max payrolls it'll take to keep it together

How much money do they get with their MASN deal? Is it any type of split with Baltimore since they are on the same network?

Their attendance is also going to preclude them from keeping a top payroll. Fans just aren't showing up. When the Phillies won their first division title, the following season, the fans showed up. Not so much for the Nats this year. Don't know what they are announcing at the gate, but if you WATCH THE GAMES, empty seats are everywhere

by **Grotewold** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:46:00

I'm not sure about their TV deal but agree on the attendance.

And, back to our situation, those are the key reasons why it would be nuts for the Phillies to slash payroll anytime soon

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Sun May 05, 2013 12:47:09

PTOITWCFTPP wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
Polar Bear Phan wrote:I'd just like to point out the Nationals aren't really that young. Yes, Harper and Strasburg (and their unproven prospects) are young (plus, I guess Wilson Ramos at 25), but the rest of their current core is at their prime or in decline. Further, they really haven't looked much better than the Phillies this year.

Zimmermann and Gio are young but won't be cheap for long. I'm not convinced that market has strengthened to the point of the max payrolls it'll take to keep it together

How much money do they get with their MASN deal? Is it any type of split with Baltimore since they are on the same network?

Their attendance is also going to preclude them from keeping a top payroll. Fans just aren't showing up. When the Phillies won their first division title, the following season, the fans showed up. Not so much for the Nats this year. Don't know what they are announcing at the gate, but if you WATCH THE GAMES, empty seats are everywhere

Peter Angelos pretty much owns their broadcast rights and the Nationals get some really small number (*think* it is in the 10-20% range).

by **usctrojans31** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:01:32

Re: Papelbon trade

I don't think that the club is so far away that an entire rebuild is necessary. That said, I don't see the club as long-term contenders without it, but there are enormous economic ramifications to consider. Papelbon is simply a luxury that an 80-85 win team cannot afford and should not commit money to.

by **dajafi** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:02:34

Grotewold wrote:
Polar Bear Phan wrote:I'd just like to point out the Nationals aren't really that young. Yes, Harper and Strasburg (and their unproven prospects) are young (plus, I guess Wilson Ramos at 25), but the rest of their current core is at their prime or in decline. Further, they really haven't looked much better than the Phillies this year.

Zimmermann and Gio are young but won't be cheap for long. I'm not convinced that market has strengthened to the point of the max payrolls it'll take to keep it together

Atlanta will be good but not a juggernaut

Other than Werth, they're all on the good side of 30. And I think they signed Gio for five years.

by **Trent Steele** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:08:17

Gio is signed through 2017.

Harper has a ML deal that pays him less than $3m in 2014-15 combined (he would have been arb eligible in 2015).

by **smitty** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:09:16

Puig just got a DUI or something. Criminals are the newest market inefficiency. We already have D. Young. What's Ron LeFlore up to?

by **JFLNYC** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:09:52

If I'm Rube I can't worry about how the Nats handle their financial situation because I can't control it. I have to worry about my roster.

Let's put it this way: The Phils' chances this year depend largely on the health and production of their core veterans, Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Papelbon, Howard, Utley, Rollins and Chooch. If I had told you before the season that Utley was going to make a remarkable comeback and reclaim his place at the top of NL 2B in OPS; that Howard was going to be healthy and substantially improve his OPS by about 100 points from 2012, that Hamels, Lee, Rollins and Chooch were going to healthy; that, although Doc would struggle, Kendrick would emerge as a top 10 starter in the league; and that, on top of all that good fortune, Dom would project to a 25/71/.260 slash line, Michael Young would add 100 points to his OPS from 2012 and Michael Adams would do the job he was acquired to do, you'd probably bet the Phils would be in pretty good shape to contend.

I don't think you could reasonably have expected more from that core. Yet, despite all that, they can't even seem to play .500 ball. That suggests to me that my evaluation of my aging core might have been too optimistic and that tinkering around the edges is not going to be enough. I want to stress that it's still early in the season and it wouldn't shock me at all if the team turned things around and made a run at the playoffs. But if you're still getting this sort of overall performance come July, you've got to change your strategy fundamentally.

by **Grotewold** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:11:49

Trent Steele wrote:Gio is signed through 2017.

Harper has a ML deal that pays him less than $3m in 2014-15 combined (he would have been arb eligible in 2015).

I said he wouldn't be cheap for long. Deal goes from $6M to 8 to 11 to 12. That's cheap if he keeps excelling. Looks like a shrewd move, but not a lock imo. But they also have Zimmermann's contract to deal with, whatever they do with Strasburg, etc.

They're in great shape with Harper obviously, and in good shape overall. It's just not gonna stay easy for them forever with a lot of guys entering into peak contract years and them no longer picking first or second every year

by **Grotewold** » Sun May 05, 2013 13:13:42

JFLNYC wrote:But if you're still getting this sort of overall performance come July, you've got to change your strategy fundamentally.

Again, no one is saying otherwise.

I agree with the rest of your post but expect much more the rest of the way from Hamels and even Lee. Cautiously optimistic Doc will be better than three awful, three good

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Sun May 05, 2013 14:35:41

dajafi wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
Polar Bear Phan wrote:I'd just like to point out the Nationals aren't really that young. Yes, Harper and Strasburg (and their unproven prospects) are young (plus, I guess Wilson Ramos at 25), but the rest of their current core is at their prime or in decline. Further, they really haven't looked much better than the Phillies this year.

Zimmermann and Gio are young but won't be cheap for long. I'm not convinced that market has strengthened to the point of the max payrolls it'll take to keep it together

Atlanta will be good but not a juggernaut

Other than Werth, they're all on the good side of 30. And I think they signed Gio for five years.

Adam LaRoche is 33 and making 8 figures for the next two years (and possibly 2015), so I'd count him as part of a core.

Also, it isn't that its an old team, it's that it is a team at their peak (most of their core is 26-29), and it's still not really clear how good they are. They currently have a -16 run differential and a 14-17 3rd order record. Maybe they've been unlucky (excluding Jordan Zimmermann's sub-.200 BABIP), but it's also possible they just plan overachieved last year.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun May 05, 2013 15:50:03

danrosz wrote:Is there something extra boring or awful about this team? Or was it just that I was spoiled by the five year run of success? Have my 17 game plan again and will continue to go to those games and watch with one on television but this team just feels so fucking boring. The most exciting part of the season so far has been a Kratz bat flip and a Mitch Williams vs Dubee/Halladay feud. This is awful.

They are the most boring Phillies team I can recall and I can recall those boring teams from the 90s with relative ease. They have quick AB after quick AB, few baserunners, even fewer runs. The starting pitching can be very good, but even that can create dull games when our own offense is on ice. They also play poor defense, something I don't recall many Phillies teams doing over the years and they make mental mistakes much more than other recent teams. It's also compounded significantly by our announcers, who give no distraction to the on-field circus act.

The fans are going to turn on this team the way they are playing, partly because of the losses but more because they are horrible to watch.

whoa, nice catch

by **Bucky** » Sun May 05, 2013 15:56:27

usctrojans31 wrote:Re: Papelbon trade

I don't think that the club is so far away that an entire rebuild is necessary. That said, I don't see the club as long-term contenders without it, but there are enormous economic ramifications to consider. Papelbon is simply a luxury that an 80-85 win team cannot afford and should not commit money to.

plus he's a douche

actually, that's my real reason to trade him

by **PhillieMooDo** » Sun May 05, 2013 16:03:58

Bucky wrote:
usctrojans31 wrote:Re: Papelbon trade

I don't think that the club is so far away that an entire rebuild is necessary. That said, I don't see the club as long-term contenders without it, but there are enormous economic ramifications to consider. Papelbon is simply a luxury that an 80-85 win team cannot afford and should not commit money to.

plus he's a douche

actually, that's my real reason to trade him

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