Is there something extra boring or awful about this team? Or was it just that I was spoiled by the five year run of success? Have my 17 game plan again and will continue to go to those games and watch with one on television but this team just feels so fucking boring. The most exciting part of the season so far has been a Kratz bat flip and a Mitch Williams vs Dubee/Halladay feud. This is awful.

danrosz wrote:Is there something extra boring or awful about this team? Or was it just that I was spoiled by the five year run of success? Have my 17 game plan again and will continue to go to those games and watch with one on television but this team just feels so #$!&@ boring. The most exciting part of the season so far has been a Kratz bat flip and a Mitch Williams vs Dubee/Halladay feud. This is awful.

They're just a pretty boring team, even when they're winning. When we were in our 2007-2011 run, though less so at the end of it, we were scoring runs like crazy, which is exciting to watch baseball. Now we're 11th in the national league in scoring, if you don't score a lot it's a pretty boring game to watch at times.

usctrojans31 wrote:How the hell are the Phillies going to move Papelbon too? I can really only see him in Detroit in a straight salary dump. That said, I'm happy with said salary dump, but still.

Why? He's really good and owed around the same money the Nats just gave Soriano, which cost them a first-round pick

And what's the point of the Phillies "dumping" that money?

Grotewold wrote:

usctrojans31 wrote:How the hell are the Phillies going to move Papelbon too? I can really only see him in Detroit in a straight salary dump. That said, I'm happy with said salary dump, but still.

Why? He's really good and owed around the same money the Nats just gave Soriano, which cost them a first-round pick

And what's the point of the Phillies "dumping" that money?

I would think because USC thinks the Phils should go on a full rebuild and having a very expensive closer on a middling team that will rebuild doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Because he is good you could maybe get a decent return and then we can reallocate that money to offense. I'm not there quite yet on full rebuild but I have no illusions of greatness this year or next. I think we need to see may and June to reassess and see what the best course of action is.

laf837 wrote:I would think because USC thinks the Phils should go on a full rebuild and having a very expensive closer on a middling team that will rebuild doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I get that, but neither does "dumping" a good player. The only reason to do that would be to sign a very expensive free agent, which doesn't make sense, either, in a full rebuild.

I think we're gonna see two of Utley, Halladay, and Ruiz back and the payroll close to its current level next year, avoiding long-term contracts and adding youth and offense incrementally. If the team is out of it this July, they may get a head start on the latter.

Problem is there's really very little to build on. Excluding everyone over 30, who's in the organization now that could form the core of the next Phillies contender?

Hamels
Brown
Galvis
Biddle
Joseph
Franco
Morgan
Quinn

Hamels is 29. Figuring a 3-4 year rebuild, he could remain viable. Brown still doesn't look like a superstar, but could top out as a 3-4 win player. Galvis could be Omar Vizquel with more power and less speed; he also could be John McDonald. Biddle could be a good #2... eventually. Joseph might be a league-average catcher. Franco's ceiling is Aramis Ramirez, a very good player but also not a superstar. Quinn could be a Rollins, but at the moment he's hitting .200 in A ball. Morgan is probably a #4.

We know that it's tougher to build through free agency now. Their financial edge will erode as attendance falls, though it might come back with the TV deal. They seem to be about average in the draft. The sell trades last summer were okay but not transformative. Probably the same will be true if/when they sell this year.

Given the young talent on the Nats and Braves and the Mets' eventual financial resources, I worry we're entering a long stretch in the wilderness.

Joseph's ceiling is way higher than league average catcher. He has 25 HR power potential.

And our money means nothing, but the Mets maybe having money in the future is a big problem? I'm pessimistic, but the Red Sox transformed their team in one year. I don't trust RAJ to do it, but I'm not as convinced his head doesn't roll.

I agree with dajafi. The philosophy I go by is looking at a given player in a given position and asking: "Am I going to win my next world championship with that guy in that position?" If, either because of lack of talent or age, the answer is no, then it's time to begin finding a new player for the position.

It's very unlikely IMO that Utley, Halladay or Ruiz will be at their respective positions the next time the Phils win it all. There may be PR or sentimental reasons to bring one or more of them back but, from a strictly baseball standpoint there really isn't. Committing even for only another 2 or 3 years with them delays the development towards the next championship team I don't want to look back in 5 years and think: "Why were we trying to milk the last bit of production out of those vets when we could have been going through the process of finding a successor? Now all we've done is set the process back a few years."

If we're out of it in July and you can get something of value from a guy who's not going to be here when you win your next championship, it's a wasted opportunity not to deal that guy. Of course I could be wrong, but any notion that we're going to blend in a Cody Asche here and a Tommy Joseph there with the current aging, decaying core and find ourselves a contender again seems very misguided to me.

JFLNYC wrote:any notion that we're going to blend in a Cody Asche here and a Tommy Joseph there with the current aging, decaying core and find ourselves a contender again seems very misguided to me.

Who's saying that? I'm open to trading Lee and Papelbon and Rollins for good prospects and would consider others in July if the team is out of it. I just don't see the point in "dumping" people when we can inject youth without dumping. If there's no market for Papelbon because of his contract, which I don't really buy, why not try again next year?

If their plan is to drop to a $90M payroll by next year, that would be different. But I highly, highly doubt that

The Nightman Cometh wrote:And our money means nothing, but the Mets maybe having money in the future is a big problem? I'm pessimistic, but the Red Sox transformed their team in one year. I don't trust RAJ to do it, but I'm not as convinced his head doesn't roll.

1) I think Amaro's got at least two more years of conspicuous non-success before they can his ass. These are the same owners who sat on their hands through the '80s and '90s. Amaro has enormous old-boy equity, and they're still making money.
2) Our resources are good, but the Mets can be the Yankees. Plus they've got Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Niese in addition to Wright (their Hamels) and D'Arnaud. Their young core > our young core.
3) I'm actually less worried about the Mets than the Nationals. DC has become an incredibly affluent market, and Rizzo is a great GM. They're going to be good for a very long time.

dajafi wrote:Rizzo is a great GM.

Really? Bid against himself for Werth (hugely) and Haren, it appears. Went big on a closer when he already had a good pen. Nice move for Gio, but they gave up good prospects. Was trading Morse and re-signing LaRoche wise, especially with Zimmerman's throwing issues?

Doesn't strike me as much different than Amaro at this point. Let's see how he does without the high-pick inventory.

I hope you're right and I've overrated other GMs before. But the way he turned that around in three years is shocking. It's not just Strasburg and Harper. It was staying with the Desmonds and Zimmermanns and Detweilers and the rest. And they still have a better minor league system than we do even after trading for Gio, Span et al.

Timing is everything. Especially in professional sports...

I think its quite clear that this team is not going to be competitive as currently constructed. We might sneak in as a wild card this year but in my mind it would be a last gasp for a rapidly aging team with little in the minors that can replace the studs in the rotation or in the lineup.

I'm not sold on Amaro being the right guy to fix the mess that he is largely responsible for creating. That's a major problem that is only going to fix itself if the ownership group decides he's not the right guy to rebuild the team.

So if we start trading guys, and let the older free agents walk, Amaro had better be able to garner a few near-ready prospects to replace the lost talent. We can't rely on guys in Single A to mature into big league ballplayers. With the checkbook only getting larger due to the new TV contract, we're still going to be a prime destination for free agents in the future. I'm kind of reversing my thoughts on building a team - up to this point, I believed getting the core of the team through free agency and trades was the way to build the team, but I am more and more convinced that a strong minor league and a second to none scouting system is really the way to build the big league squad.

If you asked me today, I would let Halladay walk - I don't think you are getting anything for him at this point. I think you look at what Cliff Lee get can get you in return. Utley I think you have to keep unless you are blown away by an offer. He's the face of the franchise at this point. Papelbon is expendable, he can go for a decent return. Howard can go as long as we get some salary relief, I''m not looking for any prospect return worth anything. Chooch is hard...the pitchers like Chooch, he can call a game well. He gives you some stick. I like the rags to riches story with him...but he's aging and catchers age badly...see what you would get. Rollins is another one that is hard...he can still play and still has a rocket for an arm...he's been a Phil forever...someone I would like to see retire as a Phil but again, see what he would bring back in return.

Philadelphia sports fans are cursed by nostalgia. We idolize our heroes more than almost any other city, especially ones that have brought us championships...the problem is that if you wait too long, the return on investment is going to drop...and I also think it's pretty obvious that the 2008 team is about shot...the core of that team was in its prime, now it's aging...

And that's going to be most difficult Gordian knot to cut...but it has to be done to at least revitalize the franchise...it's stale right now, and I'll be a Phils fan til I'm pushin flowers, but I'd like to see them start a serious rebuild process this year...the franchise has never been more valuable and have such massive revenues, I don't think it'll be as long as I fear, even if Amaro has the reigns.

Grotewold wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:any notion that we're going to blend in a Cody Asche here and a Tommy Joseph there with the current aging, decaying core and find ourselves a contender again seems very misguided to me.

Who's saying that? I'm open to trading Lee and Papelbon and Rollins for good prospects and would consider others in July if the team is out of it. I just don't see the point in "dumping" people when we can inject youth without dumping. If there's no market for Papelbon because of his contract, which I don't really buy, why not try again next year?

If their plan is to drop to a $90M payroll by next year, that would be different. But I highly, highly doubt that

It wasn't directed at you in particular, Grote. But I will say this: Keep declining vets at their positions blocks the process of injecting and developing youth.

dajafi wrote:I hope you're right and I've overrated other GMs before. But the way he turned that around in three years is shocking. It's not just Strasburg and Harper. It was staying with the Desmonds and Zimmermanns and Detweilers and the rest. And they still have a better minor league system than we do even after trading for Gio, Span et al.

I think he's done a good job but that much of it was drafting from a premium position. A lot of the other moves are the types we saw from Amaro 2009-2012. We'll see.

JFLNYC wrote:It wasn't directed at you in particular, Grote. But I will say this: Keep declining vets at their positions blocks the process of injecting and developing youth.

Well I'm talking about staying at a high payroll the next few years, which I firmly expect. If I'm wrong about that, I'm wrong about it all.

Will keeping Papelbon another year -- rather than "dumping" him for nothing -- block anyone? I don't think so. Aumont hasn't even grabbed the 7th-inning reins. I'm fine with freeing up an infield spot by moving Rollins, but it would take a real blue chipper for me to want to move Utley. The outfield and third base and catcher (either as starter or working in slowly like Ruiz did) positions are wide open under my plan. Two or three rotation spots would be open depending on Lee and Halladay.

I guess I just don't see the upside in moving good players if you're not getting anything back, since payroll flexibility isn't going to be the issue moving forward.

Ruiz and utley are FAs after this year and not good candidates to be resigned given age and/or injury history. Why wouldn't you deal them if you could acquire impact guys?

Rollins is declining and we have a ready replacement - why wouldn't you deal him for an impact prospect?

Howard/ruf or JMJ at 1B in a platoon is probably above league average

Galvis looks more promising as hitter than I would have thought, so sticking him out there to try to develop and see what you really have is a good plan (he's OPSing at .728 in limited ABs, Rollins OPS for his career is .758)

Ashe or Franco are potentially solid options at 3B

Need to give Revere and Brown a full year no matter what to see what you really have. If both are not impact guys, this team is in much deeper trouble. I'm doubtful about Revere but I think Dom will perform OK if Left alone.

Holes in the lineup in a couple of years are 2B (can Hernandez be impact? Who knows.) and LF for sure.

Pitching with Hamels, Kendrick and Biddle with Aumont/defratus/ Bastardo/Adams should be ok.

"Impact" prospects is one thing. I thought most were assuming we wouldn't get much for anyone other than Utley and Lee.

I will trade Utley, Lee, and Papelbon and pay a big chunk to get Puig