td11 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:I could deal with those characteristics. The bigger problem IMO is that I got no sense that he or the organization has any overall plan and method for developing young players.

i don't want to defend ruben but this is a bit much

For all I know they have a terrific, systematic plan in plan for the development of players, but what I said is I got no sense of it from the interview and I didn't. Did you hear the interview? If you did, did you get the sense they have such a system in place? If you didn't hear it, how can you decide whether my sense of it is fair or not?

Seems like these quotes always come from the Missannelli show. Could they just be a little too chummy and/or combative?

Anyway, I'm much more concerned with what I see on the field, and there are concerns there. Position prospects and, to this point, some highly regarded bullpen arms not taking the next step.

But to be fair, Amaro's been in increasingly important roles with the team for a long time now. Before and after a great run of success -- remember all the "Gillarmo" stuff on PhilliesPhans about how Rube was really in charge and driving the organization into the ground?

when you draft a prospect, you are looking at:

* what he has done so far (either high school performance or college performance, the latter of which is easier to evaluate)
* what he is likely to look like, physically, when hes 24-25 and fully developed
* what his current baseball skills are, and what they are likely to turn in to with professional instruction and development

every decision, regarding drafting a player, is a risk based assessment.the phillies saw anthony hewitt as a guy who, if everything clicked, could hit .280 with a .350 OB%, 30-35 home runs a year, and 15-20 stolen bases a year. thats a superstar. picking near the back of the first round, they realized that the other players around him probably had lower ceilings, but also higher probabilities. assembling the squad they were at the big league level, they were looking for potential superstars, not guys who would be mediocre starters or utility players. was it a mistake? well, it depends. where did they miss on their initial assessment? did they miss? hewitt struggled in a few showcase events against better prep pitching, but that isnt uncommon, and a showcase event is 1 or 2 days, hardly a significant sample. baseball is littered with guys who had a bad showcase or two or struggled in a summer league and went on to become all stars. when hewitt turned pro, they realized that his pitch recognition was far worse than expected. it short circuited his entire game, because he couldn't recognize average breaking balls. he wasn't seeing many of those in high school. how could they have realistically known this? plate discipline and batting eye is difficult to teach and develop. its repetition and, to some degree, a natural ability that cant be coached.

i think its tough to blame the phillies for their player development. they've gotten a lot of quality big league value from unsung prospects that the big outlets didn't really rate. weirdly, its their higher picks they've botched in the last 6-7 years.

2006: they took drabek in the first, that worked out fine. cardenas was a key piece in the blanton deal, carpenter sucked, and the best player they took in that draft was domonic brown in the 20th round, signing him for $200k.
2007: they wasted their first rounder on savery, d'arnaud (comp round) was the best pick, but they got mike taylor in the 5th, de fratus in the 11th, and diekman in the 30th
2008: they wasted their first rounder on hewitt, but they hit on a lot of their later picks, including gose (2nd), knapp (2nd, cliff lee centerpiece), worley (3rd), pettiboner (3rd), may (4th), schwimer (14th), cloyd (18th)
2009: they didnt have a first, they wasted their 2nd on kelly dugan, but got singleton (8th), altherr (9th), ruf (20th). they took aj griffin in the 34th round but couldnt sign him, which kind of sucks
2010: finally a hit, with biddle in the first round

a bunch of the guys they took after the first round were not highly regarded by BA or Keith Law but have provided plenty of value. the phillies flipped some of these guys before they had a chance to start sucking, like jason donald and lou marson and mike taylor. no one cared about vance worley, they developed him and got him to perform his magic act at the big league level, then turned him in to something via trade.

every org has success stories and failures. the rays, who everyone is quick to worship, picked tim beckham over buster posey. the royals wasted the #4 overall pick on christian colon. some guys get hyped to the highest order and never develop, and its not the team's fault, its just that it didnt work out. some guys just never get it, no matter how hyped they are.

Missanelli didn't ask about every prospect that comes up through the system, even though Rube brought up Dom in the interview. He was asking about the IronPig relievers specifically. Savery, Schwimer, Herndon, Aumont, Diekman, DeFratus, Stutes, Rosenberg, Zagurski, Mathieson, Carpenter. All failures, and the jury's still out on Bastardo.

JUburton wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:it was cool when he gave us the best Phillies team in history

I wonder how different the conversation would be if we won another WS. Or two.

the playoffs are a crapshoot, unless your team is league-average two years later in which case you deserved to lose

BigEd76 wrote:Missanelli didn't ask about every prospect that comes up through the system, even though Rube brought up Dom in the interview. He was asking about the IronPig relievers specifically. Savery, Schwimer, Herndon, Aumont, Diekman, DeFratus, Stutes, Rosenberg, Zagurski, Mathieson, Carpenter. All failures, and the jury's still out on Bastardo.

Bastardo is a win, in this context

Regarding Hewitt, he was born on April 27, 1989 which means that he was a nineteen year old high schooler when selected in the June, 2008 draft. That should have been a red flag for the Phillies.

Grotewold wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Missanelli didn't ask about every prospect that comes up through the system, even though Rube brought up Dom in the interview. He was asking about the IronPig relievers specifically. Savery, Schwimer, Herndon, Aumont, Diekman, DeFratus, Stutes, Rosenberg, Zagurski, Mathieson, Carpenter. All failures, and the jury's still out on Bastardo.

Bastardo is a win, in this context

Yeah, I thought it was unfair that Bastardo wasn't mentioned. He's been a productive major leaguer. But, even with giving credit due for Bastardo, when I look at Big Ed's list, it does make you think.

JFLNYC wrote:

td11 wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:I could deal with those characteristics. The bigger problem IMO is that I got no sense that he or the organization has any overall plan and method for developing young players.

i don't want to defend ruben but this is a bit much

For all I know they have a terrific, systematic plan in plan for the development of players, but what I said is I got no sense of it from the interview and I didn't. Did you hear the interview? If you did, did you get the sense they have such a system in place? If you didn't hear it, how can you decide whether my sense of it is fair or not?

Just saying it's a bit much to derive definitive conclusions on organizational prospect development philosophy from a radio interview w mike miss.

I didn't hear the radio interview,though, so you're probably right that they just draft kids and mail them a tom emanski video

im not sure why the final story is written on any of those relievers.

not everyone comes to the big leagues, lights the world on fire, and then maintains that success right away.

look no further than trevor rosenthal of the cards. he came up last year, was throwing 100mph gas by everyone and was expected to just dominate this year. and hes struggling. it happens to almost everyone.

Understood, and it's possible that Aumont and Diekman could be great if they had anything resembling control, but in 5 years, the team hasn't been able to develop one guy like a Chapman or Kimbrel or Romo or Jim Johnson or Addison Reed. That's why the Phils had to go buy nutjob and Adams and they're signing garbage like Durbin

they developed Madson like six years ago. elite relievers don't grow on trees

sometimes players simply don't perform. i agree the jury is still out on all the younger relievers though.

Madson was a starter that converted to reliever once he got to the majors

BigEd76 wrote:Madson was a starter that converted to reliever once he got to the majors

that's what 95% of elite relievers are, starters who didn't cut it

Also, I don't think DeFratus failed so much as got crowded out by some of Ruben's crap.

td11 wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Madson was a starter that converted to reliever once he got to the majors

that's what 95% of elite relievers are, starters who didn't cut it

exactly. Maybe there's an issue with pitching talent as a whole panning out for the Phillies. Having that many ML-ready relievers isn't really a good sign. Since Hamels and Madson, the only major league starters the system has churned out are Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, Vance Worley, Tyler Cloyd and Jonathan Pettibone. They also traded Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek who have been ML starters since leaving.

Maybe a guy like Adam Morgan doesn't cut it as a starter and eventually turns into an ace reliever. Results!

Polar Bear Phan wrote:Also, I don't think DeFratus failed so much as got crowded out by some of Ruben's crap.

His numbers look pretty good so far for the pigs. I would be very surprised to not see him here for Valdez or dustbin in a week or two

JUburton wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:it was cool when he gave us the best Phillies team in history

I wonder how different the conversation would be if we won another WS. Or two.

Me too. But we didn't.

I agree that it's too early to say much about the stable of young relievers that are AAA/AAAA right now. Guys sometimes take longer to develop the control needed, especially relievers who don't get the reps that starters get.

That said, I think it's completely absurd for Ruben to act like the organization has no responsibility for how players develop. If he really believes that, then why are we paying two hitting coaches on the big club, a bunch of minor league instructors, and about a zillion other support staff (not to mention all the professional development programs the Phillies have their minor leaguers do) designed to get the most out of the draft picks? I wish the interviewer would have asked that question.

Cody Asche ‏@cody_smasche
There's something special about a well made hot dog.

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