WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Apr 03, 2013 08:07:17

jerseyhoya wrote:Did MattS or anyone ever write an article about how Howard is more valuable because of his RISP 'clutchness' (thanks to the shift) or am I imagining things? In a dumb argument about how it is more valuable to hit a single when runners are in scoring position than when the bases are empty. Because fucking duh.

The question is repeatability, i.e. that players who have great RISP numbers one year generally fade back because it not a skill. It's not that RISP numbers are irrelevant because production with RISP is equivalent to production with the bases empty; they're irrelevant because they're usually small sample size flukes.

Or am I in the wrong?


i think i remember myself arguing that WPA should be included in some sort of context in WAR or something.

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby JUburton » Wed Apr 03, 2013 08:12:54

I looked at some comparisons of WPA vs WAR for a few years maybe 2 years ago and Howard was always in the upper region of getting more WPA from his WAR.

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Werthless » Wed Apr 03, 2013 08:38:47

jerseyhoya wrote:Did MattS or anyone ever write an article about how Howard is more valuable because of his RISP 'clutchness' (thanks to the shift) or am I imagining things? In a dumb argument about how it is more valuable to hit a single when runners are in scoring position than when the bases are empty. Because fucking duh.

The question is repeatability, i.e. that players who have great RISP numbers one year generally fade back because it not a skill. It's not that RISP numbers are irrelevant because production with RISP is equivalent to production with the bases empty; they're irrelevant because they're usually small sample size flukes.

Or am I in the wrong?

1. Offer a bet, where you get to pick people who will hit better with runners on base
2. Select David Ortiz, Ryan Howard, other pull lefties
3. ???
4. Profit

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Grotewold » Wed Apr 03, 2013 08:40:12

bleh wrote:www.thegoodphight.com/2009/1/29/741980/there-is-clutch-or-the-cas


I also suspect Howard sees fewer junk balls with men on

Anyway, career:

None on: .849 OPS, 85 OPS+
Men on: .976 OPS, 114 OPS+
RISP: .975 OPS, 116 OPS+

ISO with men on 40 points higher (.300)

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby JUburton » Wed Apr 03, 2013 08:45:55

Another instance of Amaro's LOL OBP mentality being counter productive. It helps with the RUNS he so greatly values by giving Howard a better chance to produce them.

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Grotewold » Wed Apr 03, 2013 08:51:26

JUburton wrote:Another instance of Amaro's LOL OBP mentality being counter productive. It helps with the RUNS he so greatly values by giving Howard a better chance to produce them.


I'd go Revere-Utley-Ruiz eventually, which is pretty OBP strong. Brown could play his way into the front end of the lineup too

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:20:18

Walks? We don't need no stinking walks!

Jamie

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby td11 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:22:13

what is wrong with you
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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:41:12

bleh wrote:http://www.thegoodphight.com/2009/1/29/741980/there-is-clutch-or-the-cas

Thanks

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby threecount » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:46:35

Hope they play tonight...

Rain today in Atlanta :(

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby bury me » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:48:12

DOC

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby bury me » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:48:52

such a pleasure to see you again, my good sir

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:48:08

threecount wrote:Hope they play tonight...

Rain today in Atlanta :(


I think tomorrow is the bigger problem. Hate that day off after the opener thing.

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Grotewold » Wed Apr 03, 2013 13:06:15

Warszawa wrote:Hate that day off after the opener thing.


Rush to Judgment day

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby threecount » Wed Apr 03, 2013 13:17:49

Warszawa wrote:
threecount wrote:Hope they play tonight...

Rain today in Atlanta :(


I think tomorrow is the bigger problem. Hate that day off after the opener thing.


I agree..

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby CFP » Wed Apr 03, 2013 15:46:30

Same lineup tonight

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby 1 » Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:52:27

previously posted in the TV thread, but a reminder that our very own Ryan Howard will be on The Office tonight.
Fine. You wanna act like you're two? I'll act like I'm one.

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Wheels Tupay » Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:57:08

Does he strikeout?
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Now imagine that everything you ever imagined... is possible. - Hinkieology
EDP 2020

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Re: WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

Postby Gimpy » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:18:35

Will things ever be okay again?

Image

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