No

TenuredVulture wrote:I could see why you wouldn't predict a 100 win season with this bunch, but I don't see why JFLNYC even bothers. Yeah, the new guys aren't getting anyone excited, but still.

Why? Because I like to look at both sides of the equation, rather than seeing only the good things?

TenuredVulture wrote:Rollins--crafty vet who will score runs

Still a very valuable player. Still one of the best all around SS in the game. But he's a league-average hitter at best now (OPS+ of 87, 85, 101 and 98 over the last 4 years) and, in April and May of last year, when the Phils needed his production most with Utley and Howard out, had an OPS of .553 and .638.

TenuredVulture wrote:Utley--even if his best days are behind him, he's still an allstar at 2b.

Also still one of the better 2B in the league. But he's played only 183 games the past 2 seasons and has a degenerative condition in his knees. There's no way to know how much and how effectively he'll play in 2013.

TenuredVulture wrote:Chooch--among the best catchers in the game.

Had a career year as a catcher at age 33. Was due for a significant regression in 2013 even before the Adderall use was discovered. Plus played only 114 games due to injury last year.

TenuredVulture wrote:Howard--stop whining about the damn contract. He's overpaid. End of discussion. He's still a productive power hitter, he looks pretty fit in those subway ads.

Is he still "a productive power hitter?" His OPS+ was 91 last year, so below league average generally and particularly poor for a 1B. His WAR of -1.0 placed him 44th among 47 1B with 250 or more PA in 2012. Yes, he's coming of a catastrophic injury, but what are the examples of players coming back from a ruptured Achilles and regaining their prior production? Whatever that number is, it's small, if not non-existent. And, that number is even smaller for the subset of 33-year-old big-body power hitters.

TenuredVulture wrote:Cole--would be #1 on most teams.

No argument there.

TenuredVulture wrote:Lee--would be #1 on most teams.

Ditto for Lee

TenuredVulture wrote:Halladay--is #1 on one of the most dominant staffs in the majors.

Halladay suffered an arm-related injury last year and had his worst year since 2004. When he came back from the injury, he insisted he was fine, but his velocity was down and it showed. He'll be 36 this season and has thrown more innings than any of his contemporaries. He could come back and win a Cy Young, but it's also possible he'll never be a dominant pitcher again.

TenuredVulture wrote:Papelbon--quality closer.

Again, no argument. But his velocity was the lowest of his career last year, which bears watching as he's now 32.

TenuredVulture wrote:So, a dominant pitching staff and very good infield. Some potential in the outfield if things go well. Long term, the Phillies will have increased flexibility going forward. They can still be a destination for free agents. Go Phils.

If the core 8 players on this team -- the 3 aces and Papelbon, plus Chooch, Howard, Utley and Rollins -- stay healthy and productive, there's no reason the team can't compete for the World Series. But, as we saw last year, age, injury history and declining production suggests that health and productivity for that core is not particularly likely.

The future?

This golden age over the last several years was fueled by the convergence of a number of factors. First, the Phils developed three (3) MVP-caliber players and one Cy Young candidate roughly contemporaneously (Howard, Utley, Rollins & Hamels). They also developed an All-Star caliber catcher and a near-All-Star (and very productive power hitter) in LF (Burrell). In addition, they picked up two All-Stars for nothing off the scrap heap in their primes (Vic & Werth). I'm not sure that younger fans realize how very fortuitous the franchise has been recently. The odds against that sort of convergence of fortuitousness happening again anytime soon are astronomical.

The current farm system doesn't appear to have any potential MVP-caliber position players (let alone 3 in the system at the same time). There may be an All-Star or two in the mix, but that's about it. And, although there are a number of quality young arms in the system, there's no one who reasonably projects to be Cy Young caliber.

Yes, there will be much greater payroll flexibility for 2014 and beyond. But the current Phils didn't buy their way to the top. They built their core from their farm system and then supplemented with free agents. It's extremely difficult (although certainly not impossible) to do it the other way around.

Go Phils Since '64.

be nice if our pitching stays healthy and effective. then I feel we'll stay competitive.

But on balance, it seems easier for stuff to go wrong for us, and we stand a greater chance of things going catastrophically wrong. that's not being a downer. that's just recognising where the risks are and what chances they have for occuring.

Plus I fundamentally believe that a lot of folk just don't like watching pitcher's duels. and our lineup is going to give fans the screaming frustrations this year.

I anticipate a lot bitchy game threads, but a fair bit of enjoyment in between games because we should stay in the race for a while. April will be vile for the optimists - up and down and all over the shop - and june will suck for everyone. after that who the fuck knows how it will play out.

Despite everything that went wrong last year, we were league-average in runs, just behind the Braves and Giants.

The problem was middle relief, which should be much stronger now. And a Halladay even halfway back to the 2011 version would be huge, obviously

Napalm wrote:wait wait what, did rube or charlie come out and say delmon is starting in rightfield?

i thought rube did kind of say that

he didn't promise him a spot or anything

I don't really mind watching a bunch of well played 2-1 games, I'm just dreading the idea of watching Mike Young play 3B. I think I was less annoyed with Polanco than most on here just because you knew he'd catch the ball when it was hit to him

Honestly the other moves this offseason are all okay to meh IMO, just really do not want Young playing 3B

i think galvis and mayberry are gonna be late game replacements on defense often when we have the lead.

michael young offensively will be worth it. he just needs to be decent on D

Warszawa wrote:

Napalm wrote:wait wait what, did rube or charlie come out and say delmon is starting in rightfield?

i thought rube did kind of say that

the quote was essentially if he's healthy enough to play, then RF is his.

The Savior wrote:

Warszawa wrote:

Napalm wrote:wait wait what, did rube or charlie come out and say delmon is starting in rightfield?

i thought rube did kind of say that

the quote was essentially if he's healthy enough to play, then RF is his.

I didn't see it, but what I read was "in an ideal world." That's as open to interpretation as it gets. Maybe it means "if he plays like you'd expect a 27 year old former first overall pick to play, he'll be the right fielder."

rube thinks this guy can be a 25 hr hitter based on that interview

i think if delmon young isnt healthy by opening day he will be by mid to late april.

its 4 to 6 months rehab right? 6 months puts him at may 10

could be.....but truthfully i never heard of microfracture surgery in ankle so i really dont know. we are just guessing

The Savior wrote:rube thinks this guy can be a 25 hr hitter based on that interview

Well he hit 18 last year on a bad ankle. (Or do only guys like Dom and J. Upton merit any injury considerations?)

With 8 homers in 88 PAs the past two playoffs.

Grotewold wrote:

The Savior wrote:rube thinks this guy can be a 25 hr hitter based on that interview

Well he hit 18 last year on a bad ankle. (Or do only guys like Dom and J. Upton merit any injury considerations?)

With 8 homers in 88 PAs the past two playoffs.

Last 2 years, he's hitting fly balls at 35% and has a 12% infield pop up rate. He's never had a HR/FB ratio better than 11.4%.

Unless he changes one of those numbers pretty significantly, he has no chance of 25 home runs

Rube must know something about the weather patterns this summer

Stark is on Sports Final with Mikey Miss and John Clark. All of them pretty much agree that this is a 3rd-place team that is too old and needs everything to go right to win the division, and they aren't better than the Giants, Dodgers or Cardinals. See you next year

john clark said we're like the sixers in the pre-season

but everyone was real optimistic about the Sixers in the preseason