"Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoughts

Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby 1 » Wed Jan 09, 2013 19:57:51

I always thought he seemed a little mean. Goodness.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby GrizzledVeteran » Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:52:55

Did we know Cole had a shoulder issue this offseason? Reuben says no big deal. Color me terrified.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby JFLNYC » Thu Jan 10, 2013 13:10:06

Of course he did. He just signed a huge contract with the Phils, so it's mandatory.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby bury me » Thu Jan 10, 2013 13:30:18

GrizzledVeteran wrote:Did we know Cole had a shoulder issue this offseason? Reuben says no big deal. Color me terrified.
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-phila ... feedID=693


i'm going to be incredibly sick until spring training or until Cole retires now. damnit

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Doll Is Mine » Thu Jan 10, 2013 14:35:21

Utley's knee all over again.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Wheels Tupay » Thu Jan 10, 2013 15:40:20

JFLNYC wrote:Of course he did. He just signed a huge contract with the Phils, so it's mandatory.


:-D
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby momadance » Thu Jan 10, 2013 22:43:14

Can only assume Cole's arm fell off..

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby gr » Fri Jan 11, 2013 01:21:12

Javy with some real Jack Morris career numbers. Need to get him quick.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby phorever » Fri Jan 11, 2013 07:56:50

so, we now know pretty much exactly what it takes to get justin upton, assuming that the phils still aren't on his no-trade list. the mariners were on the list and he just nixed a deal in which they were sending to the dbacks nick franklin, charlie furbush, stephen pryor, and taijun walker.

furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).

the toughest to match is franklin, a 21 year old switch-hitting middle infielder who put up a 725 ops in aaa last year and a more eye-popping 890 ops in aa in 2012 and 2011 combined. the phils closest match is asche, but the phils might need to add galvis or cesar hendandez to provide equal perceived value. but that really seems to me to be an even or better offer than that of the mariners, and, again, this is now known to be the actual price.

such a package seems to me an obviously affordable price to pay if that means having ruf and brown in left and upton in right for the next three years, and still having all sorts of young bullpen and starting pitching talent in the system.

i really really hope rube pulls off such a deal and will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least try, though i will be forgiving if he does try and gets beat by something like a rangers offer that includes olt or one of their other hot infield prospects, or the padres giving them gyorko or headley, or the braves sending one of pastornicky or simmons. the rangers are reportedly already out anyway, the orioles are said to be looking to add pitching rather than trade it, and if the padres offered gyorko or headley the deal would be done. mets are supposedly interested as well, but they probably have nothing good left to trade (i'm not bothering to look).

that leaves the braves and their shortstops, and phillies, which are the only one of the teams mentioned above who have not been listed at mlbtr as still interested in the last week. if the braves end up with both uptons and the phillies with wells, or soriano, or crappy corner platoons, i might send rubes name and address to the ceo of tactical response.
Last edited by phorever on Fri Jan 11, 2013 08:30:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Jan 11, 2013 08:22:26

Oh good, Javy Vazquez. We continue to go after the same guys we had interest in years ago.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Jan 11, 2013 08:25:12

phorever wrote:i really really hope rube pulls off such a deal and will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least try, though i will be forgiving if he does try and gets beat by something like a rangers offer that includes olt or one of their other hot infield prospects. but if the rangers were offering that, i don't think the talks with seattle would have gone nearly so far.


Yeh, the Rangers must really love their prospects because they are holding onto them over getting some of the better players in the game. I'm hoping their prospects are like that collection of Angels prospects a few years ago, fizzling out after looking like world beaters in the minors.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Fri Jan 11, 2013 09:32:54

Monkeyboy wrote:
phorever wrote:i really really hope rube pulls off such a deal and will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least try, though i will be forgiving if he does try and gets beat by something like a rangers offer that includes olt or one of their other hot infield prospects. but if the rangers were offering that, i don't think the talks with seattle would have gone nearly so far.


Yeh, the Rangers must really love their prospects because they are holding onto them over getting some of the better players in the game. I'm hoping their prospects are like that collection of Angels prospects a few years ago, fizzling out after looking like world beaters in the minors.


well at least we know that the phillies probably have enough prospects to make the trade, its just a matter of if they want to part with them. to me its a no-brainer.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby kruker » Fri Jan 11, 2013 09:41:30

Walker is much better than Pettibone. At least as good as and probably better than Biddle.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby ReadingPhilly » Fri Jan 11, 2013 09:42:53

phorever wrote:furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).


walker would be our best prospect by a wide margin.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby FTN » Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:49:40

ReadingPhilly wrote:
phorever wrote:furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).


walker would be our best prospect by a wide margin.


this. hes a lot better than biddle at this point

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby phorever » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:02:31

ReadingPhilly wrote:
phorever wrote:furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).


walker would be our best prospect by a wide margin.


really? yes, he was 19 in aa-ball last year and had eye-popping numbers the year before, but he had a couple of ugly months last year and his k-rate declined quite a bit. i was wrong in putting pettibone in as his match (because i remembered pettibone's nice aaa era, but forgot to check his k/9, k/bb, and hr/9, which show that his success there was mostly babip and hr/fb luck), but i don't see walker as better than biddle. biddle was a year younger and a level lower, but is left-handed and had a much better season in 2012. i'm willing to give up biddle for upton because tinstaapp, and we would still have lee and hamels and morgan and wright.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby joe table » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:05:28

Walker = Kendrick

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby kruker » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:13:18

phorever wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:
phorever wrote:furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).


walker would be our best prospect by a wide margin.


really? yes, he was 19 in aa-ball last year and had eye-popping numbers the year before, but he had a couple of ugly months last year and his k-rate declined quite a bit. i was wrong in putting pettibone in as his match (because i remembered pettibone's nice aaa era, but forgot to check his k/9, k/bb, and hr/9, which show that his success there was mostly babip and hr/fb luck), but i don't see walker as better than biddle. biddle was a year younger and a level lower, but is left-handed and had a much better season in 2012. i'm willing to give up biddle for upton because tinstaapp, and we would still have lee and hamels and morgan and wright.


A few ugly months are excusable when a 19 year old jumps from low A to AA.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby phorever » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:20:27

FTN wrote:hes a lot better than biddle at this point


not according to the age/park/league/luck adjusted davenport translations (LFRA) for expected major league peak years performance: http://claydavenport.com.
biddle 2012 converts to 3.76. walker 2012 to 4.07.

of course, the scouting reports are still incredibly valuable at these levels. do you have info on what scouts think of walker's troubles this season?
Last edited by phorever on Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:47:17, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby thephan » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:32:37

Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay and Kyle Kendrick are among the Phillies players already working out regularly in the greater Tampa-Clearwater area.


Seems like good news.
yawn

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