"Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoughts

Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby phorever » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:45:50

i do see the the mlb.com prospect rankings agree with you guys. walker at 4, biddle at 75.
sickles seems to have them a bit closer, at 7 and 24 in his list of pitchers and rated a- and b+.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:49:26

thephan wrote:
Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay and Kyle Kendrick are among the Phillies players already working out regularly in the greater Tampa-Clearwater area.


Seems like good news.


Only a matter of time until we hear they're all in the best shape of their lives.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby ReadingPhilly » Fri Jan 11, 2013 14:09:36

baseball prospectus has their prospect list out:

1.LHP Jesse Biddle
2.3B Maikel Franco
3.LHP Adam Morgan
4.IF Roman Quinn
5.C/1B Tommy Joseph
6.RHP Ethan Martin
7.3B Cody Asche
8.RHP Jonathan Pettibone
9.OF Carlos Tocci
10. RHP Shane Watson

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby FTN » Fri Jan 11, 2013 14:15:06

walker is 93-98 with a loose easy delivery and a nasty curveball. he "struggled" in 2012 because he was 19 in AA and his command still isn't big league ready.

hes a much better prospect than biddle, with #1 upside, where biddle is probably more of a low end #2

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Napalm » Fri Jan 11, 2013 14:38:28

that's a pathetic looking top prospect list for the most part

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby td11 » Fri Jan 11, 2013 14:40:14

disagree
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby FTN » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:03:44

that list is solid. lacks superstar quality, but lots of guys who should be average or slightly above big leaguers, and they aren't all in shortseason ball.

if quinn can develop any strength in the next 2 seasons hes going to become an elite prospect.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Doll Is Mine » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:06:02

Adam Morgan is a redneck.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby dajafi » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:18:13

Anybody care to dig up the BP Phils top 10 list from a decade ago?

It probably included Utley and Hamels, and might have included Howard (who I think would have been coming off a good/not great season at low A). I pretty much promise that none were projected to be what they turned out to be. The top guys were probably Floyd and Byrd.

Given reasonably good fortune with health, I think that current list probably includes 2-3 solid everyday players and 2-3 decent starting pitchers.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:27:39

When is the last time we had two 3b prospects in our top ten list? At least we are starting to have hitters with upside in our system.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby 702 » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:33:22

Franco higher than Asche yet Cody is the "next 3B of the future" ?

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby BigEd76 » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:35:01

dajafi wrote:Anybody care to dig up the BP Phils top 10 list from a decade ago?


Here's BA's 2004 list:
1 = Hamels
2 = Floyd
3 = Howard
4 = Madson
5 = Keith Bucktrot
6 = Alfredo Simon
7 = Bourn
8 = Elizardo Ramirez
9 = Juan Richardson
10 = Terry Jones

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:37:08

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Trent Steele » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:41:20

phorever wrote:i do see the the mlb.com prospect rankings agree with you guys. walker at 4, biddle at 75.
sickles seems to have them a bit closer, at 7 and 24 in his list of pitchers and rated a- and b+.


Biddle isn't even close to Walker as a prospect and even if he was based on the statistics, it's utterly irrelevant. Walker's perceived/market value is substantially higher than Biddle's and that is all that really matters when you're talking about trade value.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Doll Is Mine » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:43:30

702 wrote:Franco higher than Asche yet Cody is the "next 3B of the future" ?


Franco is only 18 I believe.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:43:55

BigEd76 wrote:
dajafi wrote:Anybody care to dig up the BP Phils top 10 list from a decade ago?


Here's BA's 2004 list:
1 = Hamels
2 = Floyd
3 = Howard
4 = Madson
5 = Keith Bucktrot
6 = Alfredo Simon
7 = Bourn
8 = Elizardo Ramirez
9 = Juan Richardson
10 = Terry Jones


hell, if we could get the same future results as this I'd be ecstatic
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Trent Steele » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:47:05

kruker wrote:
phorever wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:
phorever wrote:furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).


walker would be our best prospect by a wide margin.


really? yes, he was 19 in aa-ball last year and had eye-popping numbers the year before, but he had a couple of ugly months last year and his k-rate declined quite a bit. i was wrong in putting pettibone in as his match (because i remembered pettibone's nice aaa era, but forgot to check his k/9, k/bb, and hr/9, which show that his success there was mostly babip and hr/fb luck), but i don't see walker as better than biddle. biddle was a year younger and a level lower, but is left-handed and had a much better season in 2012. i'm willing to give up biddle for upton because tinstaapp, and we would still have lee and hamels and morgan and wright.


A few ugly months are excusable when a 19 year old jumps from low A to AA.



Also, Biddle was a year OLDER and at a lower level. Come on man.
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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:50:59

phorever wrote:so, we now know pretty much exactly what it takes to get justin upton, assuming that the phils still aren't
on his no-trade list. the mariners were on the list and he just nixed a deal in which they were sending to the dbacks nick franklin, charlie furbush, stephen pryor, and taijun walker.

furbush = diekman (maybe bastardo), pryor = aumont (maybe defrastus or stutes), walker = pettibone (maybe cloyd, mabye morgan, maybe but hopefully/probably not biddle).

the toughest to match is franklin, a 21 year old switch-hitting middle infielder who put up a 725 ops in aaa last year and a more eye-popping 890 ops in aa in 2012 and 2011 combined. the phils closest match is asche, but the phils might need to add galvis or cesar hendandez to provide equal perceived value. but that really seems to me to be an even or better offer than that of the mariners, and, again, this is now known to be the actual price.

such a package seems to me an obviously affordable price to pay if that means having ruf and brown in left and upton in right for the next three years, and still having all sorts of young bullpen and starting pitching talent in the system.

i really really hope rube pulls off such a deal and will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least try, though i will be forgiving if he does try and gets beat by something like a rangers offer that includes olt or one of their other hot infield prospects, or the padres giving them gyorko or headley, or the braves sending one of pastornicky or simmons. the rangers are reportedly already out anyway, the orioles are said to be looking to add pitching rather than trade it, and if the padres offered gyorko or headley the deal would be done. mets are supposedly interested as well, but they probably have nothing good left to trade (i'm not bothering to look).

that leaves the braves and their shortstops, and phillies, which are the only one of the teams mentioned above who have not been listed at mlbtr as still interested in the last week. if the braves end up with both uptons and the phillies with wells, or soriano, or crappy corner platoons, i might send rubes name and address to the ceo of tactical response.



The phillies should make whatever deal necessary for Justin If for no other reason than preventing the braves from getting him. I think the phillies would probably like to center their prospect package around Brown instead of Biddle...which would make sense of the rumor of them trying to find a third team (presumably to flip Brown to.) And regarding the biddle/walker comparisons I don't think it matters anyway because I'm not sure Ruben would make an the deal if Biddle were involved.

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby Woody » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:51:04

are some of you people actual robots
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: "Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoug

Postby TenuredVulture » Fri Jan 11, 2013 15:51:44

So Greene is pretty much a bust at this point?
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