Shore wrote:

Doll Is Mine wrote:

smitty wrote:Smuggles on the MLBN via the tellyphone.

Phils needed to make a lot of moves this off season rather than one big move. Wanted to stay flexible. Might go with OF of Brown/Mayberry and Nix/Ruf and might not. Very enlightening.

Showing some highlights from his playing days. Very thin hands. Plus plus smug.

In many ways, this is an offseason that Pat Gillick would be proud of. Some refuse to give Amaro credit but I will.

He's done a good job in an offseason with so few impact players and so many ridiculous contracts given to mediocre players.

Please, honestly, tell me how he's done a GOOD job.

Well, so far, he hasn't tied us down with any bad multi-year contracts. I know you're going to say that he's supposed to do that, but there's a lot of GM's out there overpaying for shitty players. The longest commitment Rube's given out is two years for a guy who has been an elite set-up man.

This would change if he goes out and gives Cody Ross three years, but so far, he hasn't done anything with long-term consequences.

I'm not as down on Amaro's moves as others are. Ben Revere, Michael Young, and John Lannan are all low-risk/high reward type moves and he's signed arguably the best set-up guy in free agency to a reasonable deal.

Revere certainly wasn't low risk.

How much would Hairston cost? I would rather they sign him for 2 years, if that is possible.

LongDrive wrote:How much would Hairston cost? I would rather they sign him for 2 years, if that is possible.

I've seen guesses of 2/10

Seems excessive to me to just hit LHP, which Mayberry does

If he were going to give Ross 3 years he'd have done it by now. I doubt he wants to give Ross more than 1 year. He had a nice year last year, but he's never had a multi-year deal in his life.

Besides, our OF is already making more than $3MM. Wouldn't want to put too many resources there.

maybe we can put abreu's eyes in someone else's body who still has power.

Grotewold wrote:

LongDrive wrote:How much would Hairston cost? I would rather they sign him for 2 years, if that is possible.

I've seen guesses of 2/10

Seems excessive to me to just hit LHP, which Mayberry does

True, but I meant instead of signing Ross. I'm starting to think Rube is going with what he's got now.

mcare89 wrote:

Shore wrote:

Doll Is Mine wrote:

smitty wrote:Smuggles on the MLBN via the tellyphone.

Phils needed to make a lot of moves this off season rather than one big move. Wanted to stay flexible. Might go with OF of Brown/Mayberry and Nix/Ruf and might not. Very enlightening.

Showing some highlights from his playing days. Very thin hands. Plus plus smug.

In many ways, this is an offseason that Pat Gillick would be proud of. Some refuse to give Amaro credit but I will.

He's done a good job in an offseason with so few impact players and so many ridiculous contracts given to mediocre players.

Please, honestly, tell me how he's done a GOOD job.

Well, so far, he hasn't tied us down with any bad multi-year contracts. I know you're going to say that he's supposed to do that, but there's a lot of GM's out there overpaying for #$!&@ players. The longest commitment Rube's given out is two years for a guy who has been an elite set-up man.

This would change if he goes out and gives Cody Ross three years, but so far, he hasn't done anything with long-term consequences.

This is where I'm at. As long as ELFTARD doesn't get multiple years from us or we don't trade for Vernon Wells I'm ok with this offseason.

Shore and Trent are among if not the smartest people on BSG. I'm honestly a little afraid of arguing with either of them. But I'd like to hear what Amaro should have done this offseason other than what he did, in terms of actual plausible moves (no "trade Kendrick straight up for Trumbo") or even basic philosophy.

I'll admit that I misjudged this market, huge contracts for so-so outfielders in particular. Maybe Smugs did too. But I think his response to it has been pretty much right. I'm not thrilled with the moves, but he's minimized downside risk IMO while allowing the possibility lightning could strike.

TBH, the thing I find most baffling is the interest in Ichiro. But even that was only two years and of a piece with the larger approach.

i do like we didnt give multi-year deals to mediocre to slightly better than average guys and tie down our payroll, but i guess i dont really trust Rube, padawan to Ed Wade, to spend it wisely next season. i could be wrong.

i think we have to concede that amaro is on the right track here. we've seen in the last 3 years that building a juggernaut is not a prerequisite for winning the world series. in 2010, we got knocked out by an inferior team that won the world series. in 2011 we got knocked out by an inferior team that won the world series. in 2012, a mediocre team with one star hitter and 2 good starters won the world series. im not really thrilled with the look of this current team, but thats mostly because of the teams we've been blessed with since 2007.

the question you have to ask about the current team is, are they good enough to win between 86-96 games. as you saw with our bullpen full of arsonists last year, the line between an 80 win team and a 90 win team can be pretty thin. we lost like 50 games when we were leading after 7. factor in that howard and utley missed half the year, halladay was broken, and lee was unlucky and you can say we reasonably could have won 93-94 games, assuming an average bullpen and average health.

considering our financial obligations, the age of the team, and the available players on the market, we weren't going to build a 100 win juggernaut this winter. even if we'd signed hamilton and greinke, its unlikely we'd win 100 games in 2013. its really tough to win that many games, and you need a lot of things to go right. but the total regular season wins by the last 6 world series champions is: 94, 90, 92, 103, 92, 96. the 2009 yankees are the only outlier.

so it doesn't really matter. if you assume better health for howard and utley in 2013, you probably gain 2-3 wins total. if you figure a slightly above average bullpen, you can probably add 3-4 wins more than 2012, when our bullpen blew everything every time. assume halladay isn't dead, he'll give you another win. assume lee isn't incredibly unlucky and wins 12 games instead of 6.

some bad things could happen along the way. our outfield could be terrible. then again, victorino and pence were both pedestrian in their time here last year, so the bar isn't super high. adams could be injured, papelbon could be injured, halladay might not recover, young might continue to suck, rollins might fall off the cliff. a lot can happen.

but if you just assume a "normal" season in 2013, the phillies as constructed can probably win between 88-93 games. and thats probably enough to sneak in as a wildcard. with an in-season move, they might be even better. of course, they might be worse. but i dont see how we could have transformed the team this winter. we dont have enough tradeable assets to get a cornerstone player like justin upton. and those players weren't available on the free agent market.

Excellent post.

Outstanding job there.

Brantt wrote:Excellent post.

Outstanding job there.

Agree.
He's Pissed Dajafi didn't mention him in the above post.

LongDrive wrote:

Brantt wrote:Excellent post.

Outstanding job there.

Agree.
He's Pissed Dajafi didn't mention him in the above post.

I pretty much never disagree with Floppy. Probably the only reason he still talks to me

Amaro sucks he let Hamels walk just like we said he would and then he didn't trade any,of our bench players for Hall of Famers. He was probably the guy who was behind releasing Justin Germano that time. If only he would listen to us the Phils would have great players like Milton Bradley and Chone Figgens and Austin Kearns. And we would have Ian Snell as our ace instead of those stinky guys we have on the mound now.

Plus, he's smug.

I like the Adams signing.
I like the Lannan signing (but mostly in comparison to the other ridiculous deals being handed out)
I'm OK with the Young deal.
I thought the Worley/May deal for Revere was a bad trade for us.
I'd much rather do nothing than get Wells or sign Ross (though I'd be OK with Ross on a 1 year deal under 10M.

Squire wrote:I like the Adams signing.
I like the Lannan signing (but mostly in comparison to the other ridiculous deals being handed out)
I'm OK with the Young deal.
I thought the Worley/May deal for Revere was a bad trade for us.
I'd much rather do nothing than get Wells or sign Ross (though I'd be OK with Ross on a 1 year deal under 10M.

Boom dee yada boom dee yada

I'm gonna be optimistic because it's more fun that way. But this team could be pretty bad. We have a PED suspended catcher. 1st base we have a one legged guy who maybe stinks now. At 2B we have a guy with no knees. At SS we have a guy who pops up all the time. At 3B we have the worst player in MLB history. The outfield is manned by guys with fat hands and guys who can't field and who can't hit lefties or can't hit righties and a speed guy who maybe can't hit.

Halladay might be toast. Adams might be toast. Maybe the young reliefer guys all stink.

That's one way to look at things.

I'm gonna be optimistic though.

It's more fun.

WheelsFellOff wrote:

Squire wrote:I like the Adams signing.
I like the Lannan signing (but mostly in comparison to the other ridiculous deals being handed out)
I'm OK with the Young deal.
I thought the Worley/May deal for Revere was a bad trade for us.
I'd much rather do nothing than get Wells or sign Ross (though I'd be OK with Ross on a 1 year deal under 10M.

Boom dee yada boom dee yada

i agree with this. I would rather wait till midseason and have some money available along with some more-valuable prospects. They will be in the race by then if Halladay is OK. If he's not then they shouldn't have wasted the money on any OFer anyway