JFLNYC wrote:We all have an understandable desire and hope that the Phils can extend and/or repeat their current run of success. But it's hard to do because it's hard to develop any young player into an elite player and to develop 3 or 4 or 5 of them contemporaneously is that much harder. And, of course, the odds are longer since we've traded away a few of those prospects (d'Arnaud, Singleton, Gose) who might reach that level. The fact that none of the guys Rube has traded away has yet achieved that level in the majors just reinforces how hard it is.

In a lot of ways it's a bitch getting older. One of the advantages, though, is having lived through and witnessed the cycles the Phils have gone through for decades and the perspective that comes with it. The first Golden Age of my lifetime started in the mid-70's and was built around the homegrown core of Schmidt, Luzinski, Bowa and Boone. That Age peaked in 1980 and had its last gasp of greatness in '83.

The 1993 team was a fluke. They finished last the year before and, after '93, never looked like a contender again. Not coincidentally I would submit, that team had only one homegrown player at its core: Darren Daulton (two, if you count Kevin Stocker). For Morandini fans, let's not forget he was a platoon player.

That means that there were 30 years between the beginning of the first Golden Age and the second in the mid-2000's, which was again built around a great core of homegrown talent: Rollins, Utley, Howard, Chooch and Hamels. I point out the three-decade gap not to be pessimistic but, rather, just to emphasize how rare it can be to put together a core of young talent capable of leading a team to a world championship.

On the positive side, of all the things which have happened this off-season, there's one that has happened and one that hasn't happened which I feel about which I feel encourage for the long run. First, Ben Revere has elite speed and defense and enough ability to get on base that he's the kind of young, controllable talent who you might be able to build/rebuild around. Second, I'm glad that (at least so far) Rube has resisted the temptation to find a vet (like Soriano) for LF. I hope that means that they intend to give Ruf every chance to see if his elite minor-league power can translate to the majors. And if it does, again you'll have a young, controllable, middle of the order power hitter to build around.

If Asche can continue to develop and Tommy Joseph and/or Larry Greene and/or Roman Quinn and/or Maikel Franco can reach his/their potential a third Golden Age could be on the horizon. I'm thankful I've lived through the first two and realistic enough to know the next could be a ways off.

joe table wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:

joe table wrote:

phorever wrote: trade of kendrick

search.php_keywords=Trade+%2BKendrick&terms=all&author=Phorever&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

YES!

dajafi wrote:I think--I hope--he now grasps that the game is to minimize the period until a new core can rise, while leaving space for lightning to strike if the old declining core has one more run in them.

dajafi wrote:
The point I think JFL and I both are making is that when a core ages and declines, as they all must, that's not really a reversible process. I'd add that Amaro has really only made one bad mistake: the Howard contract. Everything else pretty much has been in the category of rational attempts to raise another flag while conditions were favorable. I think--I hope--he now grasps that the game is to minimize the period until a new core can rise, while leaving space for lightning to strike if the old declining core has one more run in them.

JFLNYC wrote:I should stop being lazy and read TGP.

dajafi wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:We all have an understandable desire and hope that the Phils can extend and/or repeat their current run of success. But it's hard to do because it's hard to develop any young player into an elite player and to develop 3 or 4 or 5 of them contemporaneously is that much harder. And, of course, the odds are longer since we've traded away a few of those prospects (d'Arnaud, Singleton, Gose) who might reach that level. The fact that none of the guys Rube has traded away has yet achieved that level in the majors just reinforces how hard it is.

In a lot of ways it's a bitch getting older. One of the advantages, though, is having lived through and witnessed the cycles the Phils have gone through for decades and the perspective that comes with it. The first Golden Age of my lifetime started in the mid-70's and was built around the homegrown core of Schmidt, Luzinski, Bowa and Boone. That Age peaked in 1980 and had its last gasp of greatness in '83.

The 1993 team was a fluke. They finished last the year before and, after '93, never looked like a contender again. Not coincidentally I would submit, that team had only one homegrown player at its core: Darren Daulton (two, if you count Kevin Stocker). For Morandini fans, let's not forget he was a platoon player.

That means that there were 30 years between the beginning of the first Golden Age and the second in the mid-2000's, which was again built around a great core of homegrown talent: Rollins, Utley, Howard, Chooch and Hamels. I point out the three-decade gap not to be pessimistic but, rather, just to emphasize how rare it can be to put together a core of young talent capable of leading a team to a world championship.

On the positive side, of all the things which have happened this off-season, there's one that has happened and one that hasn't happened which I feel about which I feel encourage for the long run. First, Ben Revere has elite speed and defense and enough ability to get on base that he's the kind of young, controllable talent who you might be able to build/rebuild around. Second, I'm glad that (at least so far) Rube has resisted the temptation to find a vet (like Soriano) for LF. I hope that means that they intend to give Ruf every chance to see if his elite minor-league power can translate to the majors. And if it does, again you'll have a young, controllable, middle of the order power hitter to build around.

If Asche can continue to develop and Tommy Joseph and/or Larry Greene and/or Roman Quinn and/or Maikel Franco can reach his/their potential a third Golden Age could be on the horizon. I'm thankful I've lived through the first two and realistic enough to know the next could be a ways off.

I have a somewhat less elegiac version of this on TGP right now, for those interested. Plus it has a cool table measuring production vs cost of Hamels/Howard/Rollins/Utley over the last six seasons.

The point I think JFL and I both are making is that when a core ages and declines, as they all must, that's not really a reversible process. I'd add that Amaro has really only made one bad mistake: the Howard contract. Everything else pretty much has been in the category of rational attempts to raise another flag while conditions were favorable. I think--I hope--he now grasps that the game is to minimize the period until a new core can rise, while leaving space for lightning to strike if the old declining core has one more run in them.

phorever wrote:

dajafi wrote:
The point I think JFL and I both are making is that when a core ages and declines, as they all must, that's not really a reversible process. I'd add that Amaro has really only made one bad mistake: the Howard contract. Everything else pretty much has been in the category of rational attempts to raise another flag while conditions were favorable. I think--I hope--he now grasps that the game is to minimize the period until a new core can rise, while leaving space for lightning to strike if the old declining core has one more run in them.

i agree with the gist of this, but i think that there were other bad mistakes. first a reminder of some of the too often forgotten successes. in addition to the moves for lee, pedro, halladay, oswalt, and lee again, he signed madson, victorino, werth and ruiz to contracts that worked out really, really well, and resisted the temptation to keep and overpay werth and victorino and madson. if you believe uzr, he also got more than his money´s worth from polanco, despite the injuries. the blanton contract looked pretty darn good before joe got hurt.

however he not only gave howard a huge and unnecessary contract... he did the same for lidge. that took up payroll space that would have let him hold on to the extra prospects he gave up to save money on oswalt and pence. the ridiculous extra year for ibanez didn´t help either. to add to the prospect woes it still remains to be seen whether or not he got anything of value in lee trade 2. without those mistakes he would have had the prospects to deal for headley last offseason when he knew Polanco was cooked, or justin upton this offseason.

[i´ll leave the papelbon contract out of it for now, though it easily could be blamed for not being able to get upton/hamilton/swish. i haven´t made up my mind yet about that one... i need to take a closer look at the predictive ability of the leveraged value stats for relievers, upon which i had based my positive take on that deal]

Woody wrote:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elegiac

Fucking dajafi