Soren wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

Soren wrote:You're kidding yourselves if you don't think there was some flukishness about that season.

Of course there was, just as there has been for the Cardinals and Giants in recent years, including our series against them

I suppose then my point is I have no confidence in our FO to even put us in a situation to get lucky again. I would love to look like an idiot and be proven wrong. This year has pretty much killed my enjoyment of sports. Thank #$!&@ I've had soccer to follow.

i'd honestly suggest stepping away from following sports at all if they're making you this miserable br0

cartersDad26 wrote:MLBTR is running with Gelb's Eyore story that we're punting 2013. wtf.
but if we overpaid for Upton or Pagan we'd be roasted for that.

Gelb's piece is lazy journalism done solely to obtain readership with a sensationalist thesis. In no way am I saying that Amaro should be up for MLB Executive of the year. However he has dealt with most of the team's needs going into the offseason. Need a CF? Check. Need to upgrade at 3B on a temporary basis? Check. Need to add some depth on a temporary basis to the ST? Check. Need a vet RP for the 8th inning? Check. Stay within sensible budgetary constraints? Check. Have some loose change for a late ST or in season move? Check.
How exactly is this throwing in the towel for '13? Most of the holes in the lineup from last season have been addressed at a reasonable cost. He i willing to give Ruf and Brown an opportunity to show that they can play. If they do, it beats the heck out of acquiring a guy on an over pay that the fan base hates-Ross or Bourn or doesn't really want to be here-Swisher. The season is a marathon and unforeseen problems arise for all teams. There still will be some additions and subtractions to the roster. At least the Phillies are in a position to make moves if/when needed down the line.

bury me wrote:

Soren wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

Soren wrote:You're kidding yourselves if you don't think there was some flukishness about that season.

Of course there was, just as there has been for the Cardinals and Giants in recent years, including our series against them

I suppose then my point is I have no confidence in our FO to even put us in a situation to get lucky again. I would love to look like an idiot and be proven wrong. This year has pretty much killed my enjoyment of sports. Thank #$!&@ I've had soccer to follow.

i'd honestly suggest stepping away from following sports at all if they're making you this miserable br0

Seriously. The 2012 team was insufferable for four months, but then made a pretty phenomenal run in August/September to make it close until the final week. Not the greatest year by any stretch, but lots of fanbases would kill to even be relevant in late September. If that year made you hate sports, then good god... how in the heck did you make it this long as a Phillies fan?

Yeah wait, the Phillies might have had the best team in baseball from 2009 to 2011. They got beat in 2009 by an equal team in a competitive series, and in 2010 and 2011 they lost fluky series to BABIP kings. That shit happens, and fortunately it was the other way around in 2008.

I think "fluke" might have been the wrong term or misinterpreted. There was nothing fluky about a team as talented as the Phils winning so consistently for years. What might be considered a "fluke" or, at least uncommon, was the roughly simultaneous emergence of three (3) homegrown, MVP-level players in Rollins, Utley and Howard, plus a Cy Young-level pitcher in Hamels. Even assuming it was the result of great scouting and drafting, that number of quality, elite players coming out of one system so close to one another is rare. Add to that the simultaneous performance of two scrap heap additions (Vic & Werth) and you've got a confluence of good fortune which doesn't happen very often.

bury me wrote:

Soren wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

Soren wrote:You're kidding yourselves if you don't think there was some flukishness about that season.

Of course there was, just as there has been for the Cardinals and Giants in recent years, including our series against them

I suppose then my point is I have no confidence in our FO to even put us in a situation to get lucky again. I would love to look like an idiot and be proven wrong. This year has pretty much killed my enjoyment of sports. Thank #$!&@ I've had soccer to follow.

i'd honestly suggest stepping away from following sports at all if they're making you this miserable br0

I tried and can't. Love dat shit.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think if there were 1 position player currently in the Phils' system who projected to be the caliber of Rollins, Utley or Howard, we'd all be thrilled. Greene? Quinn? Asche? No one seems to be in the same league.

i don't think rollins, utley, or howard ever projected to be the caliber players they turned out to be while they were still in the minors (burrell was a different story)

JFLNYC wrote:I think "fluke" might have been the wrong term or misinterpreted. There was nothing fluky about a team as talented as the Phils winning so consistently for years. What might be considered a "fluke" or, at least uncommon, was the roughly simultaneous emergence of three (3) homegrown, MVP-level players in Rollins, Utley and Howard, plus a Cy Young-level pitcher in Hamels. Even assuming it was the result of great scouting and drafting, that number of quality, elite players coming out of one system so close to one another is rare. Add to that the simultaneous performance of two scrap heap additions (Vic & Werth) and you've got a confluence of good fortune which doesn't happen very often.

JFLNYC wrote:Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think if there were 1 position player currently in the Phils' system who projected to be the caliber of Rollins, Utley or Howard, we'd all be thrilled. Greene? Quinn? Asche? No one seems to be in the same league.

That's my point. The 2009-2011 run was fueled by having cash to spend and prospects to deal; but Rube's moves lately have left a lot to be desired.

td11 wrote:i don't think rollins, utley, or howard ever projected to be the caliber players they turned out to be while they were still in the minors (burrell was a different story)

Yeah, from my recollection Burrell and Brown were more highly touted than any of Jimmy, Chase, and Howard. Obviously, Burrell is my favorite player ever and there's still hope for Brown, but it goes to show you how inexact this science is.

GAVIN FLOYD was projected to be an ACE

I disagree with that recollection. The anticipation about Rollins and Howard was palpable from the time they were in the low minors. I remember following Rollins' progress from his first professional game. And, although I can't claim the same for Howard, once he showed elite power, he was on everyone's radar. It was quicker with Utley because he was drafted out of college, but it was there. Remember how we all were praying the Phils didn't do something stupid like trading Utley and/or Howard for the likes of Barry Zito or Kip Wells?

Moreover, whether we agree on whether they were highly-touted or not misses the point. The fact that all three, one after another, DID develop into the caliber of player they did is what was uncommon. Even if we were to identify a group of players currently in the Phils' system who might reach that level, the chances of three of them developing to the level of Rollins, Utley and Howard roughly contemporaneously is very, very remote. That's what's uncommon or even "fluky," not our individual or collective opinions of them as prospects.

In 2008, the Phillies weren't the best team. They made the playoffs and Cole went into absolute beast mode and carried them along with Lidge who was in beast mode for the whole season. They just need to make the playoffs, which this team is very capable of doing especially with two WC spots now. If they make the they just need Halladay, Lee and Cole to get on a run.

It'd be pretty awesome if Asche took a legit step forward this year

Maybe this'll be the year HEWITT puts it all together

Eem wrote:Maybe this'll be the year HEWITT puts it all together

<grain of salt>
He's always been a guy who, when he hits the ball, hits it REALLY HARD.
His walk rate has gone up three years in a row
His wRC+ has gone up three years in a row
His ISO dropped this year but Clearwater ain't exactly an easy place to hit.
As far as I know, his defense isn't anything to shake a stick at so he better figure out how to MASH
Ryan Howard referred to him as Bo Jackson in spring training
</grain of salt>

Fuck the Mets.

Bill McNeal wrote:

joe table wrote:

phorever wrote: trade of kendrick

search.php_keywords=Trade+%2BKendrick&terms=all&author=Phorever&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

YES!

We all have an understandable desire and hope that the Phils can extend and/or repeat their current run of success. But it's hard to do because it's hard to develop any young player into an elite player and to develop 3 or 4 or 5 of them contemporaneously is that much harder. And, of course, the odds are longer since we've traded away a few of those prospects (d'Arnaud, Singleton, Gose) who might reach that level. The fact that none of the guys Rube has traded away has yet achieved that level in the majors just reinforces how hard it is.

In a lot of ways it's a bitch getting older. One of the advantages, though, is having lived through and witnessed the cycles the Phils have gone through for decades and the perspective that comes with it. The first Golden Age of my lifetime started in the mid-70's and was built around the homegrown core of Schmidt, Luzinski, Bowa and Boone. That Age peaked in 1980 and had its last gasp of greatness in '83.

The 1993 team was a fluke. They finished last the year before and, after '93, never looked like a contender again. Not coincidentally I would submit, that team had only one homegrown player at its core: Darren Daulton (two, if you count Kevin Stocker). For Morandini fans, let's not forget he was a platoon player.

That means that there were 30 years between the beginning of the first Golden Age and the second in the mid-2000's, which was again built around a great core of homegrown talent: Rollins, Utley, Howard, Chooch and Hamels. I point out the three-decade gap not to be pessimistic but, rather, just to emphasize how rare it can be to put together a core of young talent capable of leading a team to a world championship.

On the positive side, of all the things which have happened this off-season, there's one that has happened and one that hasn't happened which I feel about which I feel encourage for the long run. First, Ben Revere has elite speed and defense and enough ability to get on base that he's the kind of young, controllable talent who you might be able to build/rebuild around. Second, I'm glad that (at least so far) Rube has resisted the temptation to find a vet (like Soriano) for LF. I hope that means that they intend to give Ruf every chance to see if his elite minor-league power can translate to the majors. And if it does, again you'll have a young, controllable, middle of the order power hitter to build around.

If Asche can continue to develop and Tommy Joseph and/or Larry Greene and/or Roman Quinn and/or Maikel Franco can reach his/their potential a third Golden Age could be on the horizon. I'm thankful I've lived through the first two and realistic enough to know the next could be a ways off.

Team has also never had the financial resources (relative to the rest of the league) that they have now. And gravy train should continue with the new TV deal. I think it's critical that they don't take another step back this year and start losing some of the bandwagoners....as long as we keep the stadium full, they should keep investing big bucks in the team

And as we've also discussed, the ability to consistently find useful prospects w/o spending 7 figure draft bonuses is very encouraging and bodes well for the future, as long as they keep the current drafting/scouting people in place