"Still have our 1st-rd pick!" & other random Phils thoughts

by **Monkeyboy** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 09:43:01

It really doesn't make sense that we're punting in 2013. Do we really bring in Young and Lannon and Adams if we're punting? The Revere move could be evidence that we're punting, but not in the context of the other moves. It just looks like we're punting because Amaro went and signed a bunch of really mediocre guys when we had money and pitching to spend.

Anyway, pitching was a good thing to horde when the league was weak in pitching, but that's not the case anymore. Dumb to continue to build the team around it.

by **phorever** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 09:44:58

Warszawa wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Last year Ty Wigginton had a higher OPS+, wOBA, wRC+, WAR and SLG than Michael Young. Wigginton was a butcher at 3B, but Young was not much better.

We can't keep basing our whole evaluation of Michael Young on one season.

indeed. a pretty good rule of thumb is to do a 5/4/3 weighted average of the last three seasons and then subtract a half-run off for the aging of guys over 30. that would put young at 0.9 fwar in 2013. wiggy was less negative than young last year, but much less positive the previous two years, and so projects negative in 2013. fransden projects around 0. hard to know how to project galvis, and he might well be better than young overall, but his positive value will be coming from his glove, not his bat, and he's also the main backup for rollins, utley, and whomever normally plays third when the latter is giving howard a break from facing lefties.

if young matches my projection, he'll be overpaid by a couple-three million, but it's hard to see where the phillies could have gone to get his $4 million of production at 3b without getting lucky on another fransden fluke.

by **Monkeyboy** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 09:48:31

what about Josh Fields? I keep forgetting about him and there's a chance he could be useful at 3B.

by **SK790** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 09:58:02

Soren wrote:this offseason is confirming my darkest fears that 2008-2011 was a ridiculous fluke. Got lucky developing homegrown talent, got INCREDIBLY lucky on bringing in Wertz and maximized that peak by trading for high profile players who wanted to come here. We're a perennial third place team with a boated budget and a mediocre product. IOW, best case scenario we're a less scuzzy version of the Mets. This is what we get for mocking Fugees all these years. We used up our karma and now we've become them.

by **Soren** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:03:57

our GM is a fucking moron. Our core has fallen off a cliff and they have no talent coming up the pipeline. We signed John Lannan. Case closed, everything sucks forever.

by **LongDrive** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:05:52

5 straight division titles, 2 World Series appearances with a WFC isn't a Fluke in my eyes.

by **SK790** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:11:59

Soren wrote:our GM is a fucking moron. Our core has fallen off a cliff and they have no talent coming up the pipeline. We signed John Lannan. Case closed, everything sucks forever.

wish you would step down from that ledge, my friend.

by **td11** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:12:05

Soren wrote:this offseason is confirming my darkest fears that 2008-2011 was a ridiculous fluke. Got lucky developing homegrown talent, got INCREDIBLY lucky on bringing in Wertz and maximized that peak by trading for high profile players who wanted to come here. We're a perennial third place team with a boated budget and a mediocre product. IOW, best case scenario we're a less scuzzy version of the Mets. This is what we get for mocking Fugees all these years. We used up our karma and now we've become them.

this is a bad post and you should feel bad

by **Soren** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:14:21

It was incredibly lucky that so many home grown players developed the way they did. Utley, Howard, Burrell, Hamels and Chooch with Wertz and Victorino giving you all star performances after being scrapped off of the junk heap. Brad Lidge gives you the last elite season he had before his arm falls off and you get great seasons out of Chad fucking Durbin, Clay fucking Condrey, Greg fucking Dobbs and Jaime fucking Moyer (seriously, Moyer had a 117 ERA+ in 2008).

by **SK790** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:15:53

honestly, they got a little lucky with werth and victorino, but i don't see how you can dismiss them drafting awesome players like utley, hamels, and howard.

i guess the nats are a perennial powerhouse after lucking into 2 of the most sure thing prospects ever...

by **Rockinghorse** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:16:01

Other than letting Howard walk (still probably don't get Pujols/Fielder) and trading Cliff (for prospects), I'm not sure what could have been done to put us in a much better position after the 2008-11 run. Guys got old, Roy and Chase got hurt, prospects didn't work out.

I'm more mad about good players who were on the team coming up small in 2009-11 postseason. We arguably had the best teams in MLB all of those years.

by **Soren** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:17:42

It's easy to forget that the entire club had the fucking flu in the WS. Pedro was masterful against the Dodgers then he comes back in the WS and can't throw harder than ~85

The fucking FLU. seriously.

by **Grotewold** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:18:27

Rockinghorse wrote:Other than letting Howard walk (still probably don't get Pujols/Fielder) and trading Cliff (for prospects), I'm not sure what could have been done to put us in a much better position after the 2008-11 run. Guys got old, Roy and Chase got hurt, prospects didn't work out.

I'm more mad about good players who were on the team coming up small in 2009-11 postseason. We arguably had the best teams in MLB all of those years.

But thank god we got at least one WFC. And I'm confident we'll be in the mix this year.

by **JUburton** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:19:32

I'm not terribly excited about our prospects in 2013, but I don't think it's out of the question for this team to win 86-89 games and sneak into the WC. Once you're in, anything can happen.

by **SK790** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:23:23

Soren wrote:It was incredibly lucky that so many home grown players developed the way they did. Utley, Howard, Burrell, Hamels and Chooch with Wertz and Victorino giving you all star performances after being scrapped off of the junk heap. Brad Lidge gives you the last elite season he had before his arm falls off and you get great seasons out of Chad fucking Durbin, Clay fucking Condrey, Greg fucking Dobbs and Jaime fucking Moyer (seriously, Moyer had a 117 ERA+ in 2008).

chooch didn't give anything close to an allstar performance before this year. teams develop servicable players all the time, that's what he's been most of his career.

wertz and vic were a little lucky, but sometimes those guys pan out.

again, i can't really call it luck when you draft awesome talent, that's your scouting dept working for you.

bard was a bit lucky, but it's not like he was cooked when we got him.

durbs/condrey, rps have lucky seasons, i mean really?

moyer: 103 ERA+ 2006-2008. he had an above average year, but not like it was horribly anomalous.

chooch's ops was .620 that season, btw. geoff jenkins got 300+ pas. bruntbeard opsed under 600 in 200 pas. we still had adam fucking eaton. bert was brutal. kendrick strated 30 games. a ton of things went wrong that season. to say it was all luck is ridiculous.

by **PTOITWCFTPP** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:30:35

Soren wrote:this offseason is confirming my darkest fears that 2008-2011 was a ridiculous fluke. Got lucky developing homegrown talent, got INCREDIBLY lucky on bringing in Wertz and maximized that peak by trading for high profile players who wanted to come here. We're a perennial third place team with a boated budget and a mediocre product. IOW, best case scenario we're a less scuzzy version of the Mets. This is what we get for mocking Fugees all these years. We used up our karma and now we've become them.

Fluke? Nah, results came from making solid draft picks for a number of years and improving their win total by 5-10 over what they had averaged from 2001-2006. They acquired marquee players without giving up much of anything. Your real problem should be looking back at the golden run and we only came away with one title.

by **Soren** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:41:13

Howard was a good bit of scouting. Hamels was a huge question mark health/attitude wise than panned out besides the fact that drafting and developing high school pitchers is a total fuck crapshoot. 2008 was an amazing un and I'll go to my grave thanking the fucking stars it happened. You're kidding yourselves if you don't think there was some flukishness about that season.

by **Grotewold** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:42:36

Soren wrote:You're kidding yourselves if you don't think there was some flukishness about that season.

Of course there was, just as there has been for the Cardinals and Giants in recent years, including our series against them

by **Soren** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:45:09

Grotewold wrote:
Soren wrote:You're kidding yourselves if you don't think there was some flukishness about that season.

Of course there was, just as there has been for the Cardinals and Giants in recent years, including our series against them

I suppose then my point is I have no confidence in our FO to even put us in a situation to get lucky again. I would love to look like an idiot and be proven wrong. This year has pretty much killed my enjoyment of sports. Thank fuck I've had soccer to follow.

by **Bill McNeal** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:25:15

joe table wrote:
phorever wrote: trade of kendrick

search.php_keywords=Trade+%2BKendrick&terms=all&author=Phorever&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

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