2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

by **andyb** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 15:15:04

stevemc wrote:also - doesn't the draft pool in this scenario for the Nationals shrink each year by having less picks in the top 10 rounds? Therefore doesn't the tax compound itself year after year in this scenario? There has to be a breaking point.

The tax only goes up to 100% (though the draft pick penalty is 2 number one picks at the 15% overage). MLB could very well void a contract if the penalty cannot be paid (if they had already forfeited the pick).

The 100% is theoretically not enough however. Draft picks are the best investment in baseball. There was a clear case for every team spending much more money in the draft because of the marginal value per dollar expended. If only one team is busting the limits there is an artificial drag on bonuses that is probably more than 100%. Thus spending 100% extra (and the team would still have their pool from picks 2-10) is not really that much if it is getting you Strasburg/Harper type players. Even Appel type players if you get several of them.

by **FTN** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 15:15:54

Squire wrote:Well that kinda assumes that you really don't care what high priced HS talent you end up with. I mean if the Nationals pay the tax and forfeit their 1st and 2nd round draft picks, their first pick next year is like 95 again right? That's 94 players they won't have access to. That's something of a penalty.

sure, but its not an even talent distribution.

this year, picks 1-95 were not based on the 95 most talented players. lots of guys ranked in BA's Top 100 went well outside the top 100 picks.

Polar Bear Phan wrote:My assumption is they would just not approve overslot deals (by 5% or more) in year 2 of the experiment. They'd argue that the team has already forfeited the 1st round pick for the following draft and cannot sign deals that would necessitate losing a pick they don't have.

i think this would lead to a court case. if a team is ready to pay the penalty in terms of lost picks and the tax, the Commish would have no option but to approve the deals.

stevemc wrote:also - doesn't the draft pool in this scenario for the Nationals shrink each year by having less picks in the top 10 rounds? Therefore doesn't the tax compound itself year after year in this scenario? There has to be a breaking point.

there might be a breaking point, but what is it? they've just spent like $15M in 2011 and 2010. if they are scooping up huge talents every year that fall to the third and fourth rounds because those kids tell teams not to pick them, they can continually exploit the system.

by **andyb** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 15:58:59

Maybe the solution is strict slotting coupled with the ability to trade picks. One would hope they would increase the slots a little if they did this. This would really be the only way I see for the talent 1-100 to line up roughly with the picks 1-100. Signability would still be a factor in that system though I think there would be clearer signals sent from players about what it would take to sign them if they had zero negotiating power.

by **FTN** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 16:23:38

i think one way to make it work is to change draft eligibility.

if you don't sign out of high school, you are only eligible for the draft 4 years later, which would be after your senior year.

either you want to play pro baseball or you want to go to college. forget guys who bail and go to community college for a year, forget guys who are draft eligible sophomores. forget guys who commit to a big school, then transfer to a juco so they can get back in to the draft sooner.

by **thephan** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 17:07:59

Is there a by pass by not registering for the draft? I assume a high school kid would need to register to be drafted at a formal tryout process. That is the only loop hole I see if a player want to do something to increase his potential value. Looking at what floppy wrote it seems that it is either register or wait 4 years. I am sure that a hardship suit could be filed or some other loophole like playing in The Atlantic League of Professional Baseball.

by **FTN** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 17:14:10

you have to be registered to be drafted.

by **bleh** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 20:21:54

One way to fix a lot of issues... make it so for a person to be eligible to be drafted, they have to declare what they want their signing bonus to be. And if they are drafted they have to sign for that amount (and the drafting team has to pay it). Then everything would be more transparent and fair and it would eliminate a lot of backroom dealing. Maybe to give some flexibility the player could accept up to 20% less, so they could still sign for a little less if they fall, but they couldn't refuse the full offer.

by **BoonePhillie** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 20:45:32

Alec Rash pitched last night lowlighted by hitting four batters in a 2-run 4th inning. On the good side he was scheduled to meet a rep from the Phillies this morning and he has a number in mind. Whether that number is realistic we'll see.

by **FTN** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 20:50:59

bleh wrote:One way to fix a lot of issues... make it so for a person to be eligible to be drafted, they have to declare what they want their signing bonus to be. And if they are drafted they have to sign for that amount (and the drafting team has to pay it). Then everything would be more transparent and fair and it would eliminate a lot of backroom dealing. Maybe to give some flexibility the player could accept up to 20% less, so they could still sign for a little less if they fall, but they couldn't refuse the full offer.

the system i would love to see would be each team given the same amount of money, and instead of a draft, teams are free to negotiate and sign whoever they want, but they can only spend their bonus pool. so, if you have $8M to spend and you want to spend it all on Mark Appel, make him an offer of $8M. Then he is your draft class. Some teams may choose to try and sign the most elite guy, but it will cost them almost their entire budget. This allows players to take the offer they like best, and it allows teams to offer what they feel a player is worth, not what an arbitrary slot value says they are worth.

by **Squire** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 20:57:44

Does anyone know if they still have that rule that you can't sign a kid until his class graduates from HS?

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 21:24:32

Phillies signed Purdue senior Blake Mascarello to an UDFA deal. (per nwi.com)

by **The Savior** » Thu Jun 07, 2012 21:26:53

why haven't we signed everyone

by **ReadingPhilly** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:36:10

11th round pick Willie carmona will be on espn2 at noon. Stony brook vs. lsu

by **FTN** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:52:44

looks like a bunch of these senior signs in the first 5 rounds so far are coming in at the single digit level. i may have overestimated on the $30K by a big margin.

by **kimbatiste** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:48:39

FTN wrote:looks like a bunch of these senior signs in the first 5 rounds so far are coming in at the single digit level. i may have overestimated on the $30K by a big margin.

You mean the seniors are signing in further below slot than you expected? Does that effect any Phillies' picks other than Serritella?

by **FTN** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:57:58

kimbatiste wrote:
FTN wrote:looks like a bunch of these senior signs in the first 5 rounds so far are coming in at the single digit level. i may have overestimated on the $30K by a big margin.

You mean the seniors are signing in further below slot than you expected? Does that effect any Phillies' picks other than Serritella?

one fourth rounder signed for single digits, probably like $7,500. A typical senior sign in previous years in the first 5 rounds would have been higher. as a 4th rounder in 2007, tyler mach signed for $95K. tyson brummett and chance chapman signed for $25K and $20K as 7th and 8th rounders.

by **CalvinBall** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 13:02:28

how does that work? he only gets 7500 for the year or is there some salary attached too?

by **Bill McNeal** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 13:05:10

CalvinBall wrote:how does that work? he only gets 7500 for the year or is there some salary attached too?

They give him $7500 and a dorm room with no meal plan.

by **FTN** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 13:05:35

gets the bonus up front, then a standard minor league contract.

hoby milner signed for $140,700. thats slot. i had him signing under slot at $100K.

by **phdave** » Fri Jun 08, 2012 13:51:11

CalvinBall wrote:SHANE WATSON WILL LEAD US

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2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

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