Ludy's Bonus was 15K so we saved another 116,400 off the bonus pool cap. Still don't know whether Pullin was over, under or right on. Zach Green was reported to be over but that could be a minor amount just for purposes of saying you went over.

SQUIRE

Phillies picked him in the second round because they don't think he's any good and now they have to hype him up.

I wish the other half of the story was that he agreed to a below slot deal but unfortunately we had to pay him full slot value too. And between you and me I view Amaro as a bean counter and negotiator not a guy I want offering scouting views.

i think most of the brass was at his cbp workout. i'd guess that was the only time amaro saw him compared to the scouts who watched him for the last year or two. i trust them enough to think that if they drafted him in the 2nd round, it was worthwhile.

Squire wrote:I wish the other half of the story was that he agreed to a below slot deal but unfortunately we had to pay him full slot value too. And between you and me I view Amaro as a bean counter and negotiator not a guy I want offering scouting views.

Do you think that Rubes just pointed his finger at a list of players and said, "there, let's take a look at this big guy--we need MOR BATTS"? Don't you think that Phils scouts out there loved him and thought that maybe the attitude "problems" were something that could be fixed, a la Kyle Drabek or Brett Myers?

Dear god, Nyjer Morgan is still on a MLB roster somewhere and Keith Law ripping the kid off of third-hand info. Whatever.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

Squire wrote:I wish the other half of the story was that he agreed to a below slot deal but unfortunately we had to pay him full slot value too. And between you and me I view Amaro as a bean counter and negotiator not a guy I want offering scouting views.

Do you think that Rubes just pointed his finger at a list of players and said, "there, let's take a look at this big guy--we need MOR BATTS"? Don't you think that Phils scouts out there loved him and thought that maybe the attitude "problems" were something that could be fixed, a la Kyle Drabek or Brett Myers?

Dear god, Nyjer Morgan is still on a MLB roster somewhere and Keith Law ripping the kid off of third-hand info. Whatever.

Of course not. Not even close. But some seem to be attributing extra significance to the pick that Rube loved him. I attribute none. I do trust Marti though Ithink he has his blind spots. I really like this draft. Since he appeared in basically nobody's top whatever list, I suspect we could have got him later or at the very least paid him less than we did and used the money elsewhere. I'm rooting for the kid.

Do MLB teams use Keith Law's top prospects lists as their big board?

Squire wrote:Of course not. Not even close. But some seem to be attributing extra significance to the pick that Rube loved him. I attribute none. I do trust Marti though Ithink he has his blind spots. I really like this draft. Since he appeared in basically nobody's top whatever list, I suspect we could have got him later or at the very least paid him less than we did and used the money elsewhere. I'm rooting for the kid.

he might not have appeared on BA or any website's top whatever list, but that doesn't mean other teams weren't targeting him in the draft. not to mention, he had a scholarship offer for both football and baseball, it's likely the phillies had a good idea of what $ amount it would take to sign him. rube gushing about him after he mashed at a private workout is just an added plus. i bet the reason rube loves him is largely due to our scouts having sold him on cozens.

From what I've read, scouts disagree about prospects all the time. This makes sense as it's really, really hard to make perfect guesses about nearly any prospect. I'd guess there is plenty of disagreement even within a single team's scouts and execs regarding draft picks.

Remember Hamels' character issues based on the hazy broken arm story when he was in high school?

This guy might be a bully and a punk. Or maybe the coach was a jagov. Or maybe they think the kid will grow up regardless. He's probably a tool shed though.

Squire wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

Squire wrote:I wish the other half of the story was that he agreed to a below slot deal but unfortunately we had to pay him full slot value too. And between you and me I view Amaro as a bean counter and negotiator not a guy I want offering scouting views.

Do you think that Rubes just pointed his finger at a list of players and said, "there, let's take a look at this big guy--we need MOR BATTS"? Don't you think that Phils scouts out there loved him and thought that maybe the attitude "problems" were something that could be fixed, a la Kyle Drabek or Brett Myers?

Dear god, Nyjer Morgan is still on a MLB roster somewhere and Keith Law ripping the kid off of third-hand info. Whatever.

Of course not. Not even close. But some seem to be attributing extra significance to the pick that Rube loved him. I attribute none. I do trust Marti though Ithink he has his blind spots. I really like this draft. Since he appeared in basically nobody's top whatever list, I suspect we could have got him later or at the very least paid him less than we did and used the money elsewhere. I'm rooting for the kid.

I took that comment to mean exactly what it said. That Rubes pointed this guy out as someone to be excited about, the phils used a second rounder, but the questioner hadn't even heard of him... so what gives? That's not any emphasis on Rube's personal opinion, just that he got pointed out.

smitty wrote:From what I've read, scouts disagree about prospects all the time. This makes sense as it's really, really hard to make perfect guesses about nearly any prospect. I'd guess there is plenty of disagreement even within a single team's scouts and execs regarding draft picks.

Remember Hamels' character issues based on the hazy broken arm story when he was in high school?

This guy might be a bully and a punk. Or maybe the coach was a jagov. Or maybe they think the kid will grow up regardless. He's probably a tool shed though.

I'm shocked that a big kid who also played defensive end has an aggressive personality. Somehow he didn't get kicked off his football team though, so I'm guessing that there's more to the story.

FTR, I told my high school cross country coach to fuck off one time. Because he was a legit asshole and caused most of the seniors to quit the team for breaking his word to us. So maybe I'm just predisposed to not swallow the story that the guy is a bully when we can safely assume that his HS baseball coach badmouthed him to scouts.

I'd stay away from any high school kid who had a growth spurt.

lol, I just noticed the "power first" line. Kid hit .520 in his senior year. If that's just him swinging for the fences, I'll take it.

outside of the top 4-5 guys in a draft, if you looked at all 30 draft boards you'd see wildly divergent rankings and placements. some teams remove guys all together, some guys have players ranked hundreds of spots apart for various reasons.

keith law's rankings are based largely on his own looks at players...he might see them 2-3 times before they are drafted. thats a pretty small sample. he gets info from others too, but its 2nd hand. ba uses all second hand info.

Law still reeling from that swirlie from Cozens

Sounds like he put on 50-60 pounds lifting for football one year and Law is making that sound like a strike. I assume now that he is baseball-only he will have a different physical regimen. I would not put much stock into Law's impressions, though the other side is that we just spent decent money on a raw toolsy kid. Our big money on raw toolsy kids has often been misplaced. I kind of like the Pointer and Altherr type risks versus spending $500K+ on toolsy players.

How was Altherr not a toolsy pick?

i really think that what ba/bp/espn say pre-draft doesn't mean anything. the level of data that teams have on all of these guys is so far beyond what the aggregators put together.

id bet that brad holland (the phillies arizona scout) saw cozens play 10+ times in the last 2 years. did keith law see him play even once? sounds likes taking what hes heard from other people and using that to give his assessment.

its also funny that people get really carried away with "character issues" for 17 year olds. i did a bunch of dumb shit when i was 17, and i didnt end up in the slammer or hooked on drugs. this is like kevin goldstein telling everyone who would listen that bryce harper was a bad guy and would be a big problem child. and since harper has gotten to the majors, everyone has done nothing but rave about him, especially his maturity and baseball instincts.

its really easy to highlight perceived negative character issues. for all we know, cozens' coach was a total deviant who was egging him on and trying to get him kicked off the team because he didn't like him personally and thought he was "too big for his britches".....

im not worried. hatters 'gon hat

The fact that Cozens chose baseball over college football is evidence that he's not a total meathead.

Soren wrote:How was Altherr not a toolsy pick?

He was much less expensive. He has as much as a chance to succeed as a Hewitt or a Kyrell Hudson. But he signed for a $150K bonus. Pointer got a $350K bonus. This kid Steven Golden we just signed in the 13th round came in at $100K or less. The top tier of toolsy athletes are really expensive. The lesser known tier below them can be great values. Kind of like our Latin American strategies. Draft/sign less heralded players with tools.

At the top of the draft we have had more success developing raw HS pitchers. I want us to keep doing that with most of the high picks and make the toolsy picks a little later and less expensive.