2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby Rockinghorse » Wed Jun 06, 2012 17:47:55

BigEd76 wrote:Kentucky commit


He'll be one and done, in lottery next year

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby thephan » Wed Jun 06, 2012 18:52:12

FTN wrote:im a fan of the drafting pitching and buying bats philosophy


The interesting thing with what you said here is that this looks like the Phillies MO of the future, but not the present. I say that as most of the non-pitching talent has been home grown. Do a good job drafting, grooming and trading and it will all work out.
yawn

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Wed Jun 06, 2012 19:12:08

i think the guy i want signed the most outside the first 10 rounds is daniel STARWALT

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?conte ... d=29113154

love that delivery

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Wed Jun 06, 2012 19:14:45

Starwalt emerged as one of Southern California's top prep arms last summer, when he ran his fastball up to 94-95 mph and consistently pitched with an above-average spike curveball in the 78-80 range. He got off to a slow start after suffering a stress fracture in his back this spring, and he has since worked in the 86-90 range while losing power on his curveball, which still rates as average when he stays on top of it. He's also had a tendency to scatter his fastball. He has some feel for a changeup, which has a chance to become an average offering. Starwalt, who doesn't turn 18 until February, could sink in the draft because of his strong commitment to Stanford and his lackluster spring, but his upside is very intriguing if he can return to form.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby BigEd76 » Thu Jun 07, 2012 00:08:15

HobyMilner
That moment where you have to write who your employer is on a rental form for the first time. #phillies


And this from Marty:

Going into the Draft, Wolever said he wanted to pick some more offensive players. But as the rounds wore on, he said the club felt it had enough offensive personnel in extended spring training who would play in short-season Class A Williamsport or with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League team when those seasons start in the coming weeks. The Phillies decided to address more of their pitching needs instead.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Thu Jun 07, 2012 00:18:57

the gcl and williamsport teams should be really interesting this year. a lot of guys from the 2011 draft will be present.

larry greene, quinn, walding, tyler green and shull.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Thu Jun 07, 2012 00:39:40

my guess at the 2012 bonuses for the guys taken in the first 10 rounds. if some of them have already signed and the amount was announced, i missed it

Image

i think they will offer all the savings to starwalt (or they should) and if he balks, they will spread it around to 2 different guys.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby Squire » Thu Jun 07, 2012 07:08:30

To the extent that they generate those kind of savings from the first 10 rounds, I would think they would use it to sign the guys in the Rounds 11-20 range. Do we think Golden and Bielski are taking the 100k straight? Even if they do I could see David Hill and Tony Blanford as more likely recipients than Starwalt.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby BigEd76 » Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:21:49

After starring at Tunstall High School, Mantiply was a 48th round selection of the New York Mets in 2009.

“I would love to sign, but I’m asking for money,” Mantiply said. “I’m not just going to give up my senior year and my degree. If we can agree on a deal that outweighs the outcome of coming back to school, I’ll definitely sign. If we don’t, I’ll come back to school and play my senior year. It’s kind of a win win.”

Mantiply said he’s uncertain whether he’ll sign or return to Virginia Tech for his senior year.


Chippewa Falls McDonell pitcher Kyle Cody, who's fastball has been clocked at 94-miles per hour was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday in the 33rd round of the Major League Baseball draft. Kyle now has a decision to make, sign with the Phillies or pitch for the University of Kentucky next year. "I knew that if it wasn't in the second day like in the third or second round, I knew I'd fall a lot because that's where we told them that we would go to the MLB. So yeah, I knew I was going to fall a lot after that. But I'm just happy and very honored to be able to be part of the draft too. They're gonna send us an offer in the next couple of days and we're gonna talk about it as a family, and we're gonna see what the best possible situations for me is."

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby bleh » Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:29:47

we're gonna see what the best possible situations for me is."


Maybe he should stick with school a bit longer...

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Thu Jun 07, 2012 11:59:04

Squire wrote:To the extent that they generate those kind of savings from the first 10 rounds, I would think they would use it to sign the guys in the Rounds 11-20 range. Do we think Golden and Bielski are taking the 100k straight? Even if they do I could see David Hill and Tony Blanford as more likely recipients than Starwalt.


to be honest, this whole thing is uncharted waters.

for all we know, the seniors they signed will sign for less than 30K. college seniors have no leverage at all.

maybe cozens signs for slot, maybe its a lot less than slot.

the phillies im sure have a real good idea. and thankfully with the deadline moved up, we'll only have to wait a month to find out

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby Squire » Thu Jun 07, 2012 12:35:13

Definitely agree with the unchartered waters. Frankly, I think there is a chance that team will announce the signings of their Top 10 round draft picks in total bulk (everyone in). I don't want my early round guys knowing that I saved a couple hundred thousand on my 8-9-10 round picks because they could then hold us hostage for it.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Thu Jun 07, 2012 13:39:15

so here is what i dont get. and i think i mentioned this in a CBA related discussion this past winter.

the penalty for breaking the bonus pool is a tax, plus losing picks.

but lets say a team like the nationals decides to just obliterate things. they pay the tax. they lose their 1st and 2nd round picks next year.

in the 2013 draft, 29 other teams still follow the rules, and because of it, a bunch of elite high school talent drops out of the first few rounds. the nats just take all of these guys, and then they again obliterate the bonus pool by signing all of them. again, they pay the financial tax and they lose more draft picks. but so what? the lost picks dont mean anything, they still keep signing talent.

lets say they spend $9M this year. the tax is 100% on the overage. They'd be over by like $5M. so they just pay a $5M tax on it and their total draft spend is $14M. Which is probably less than they spent in 2010 and 2011.

but does it matter to them? what if it doesnt matter. they can continue to pulverize the draft until the CBA expires and they somehow figure out how to prevent that from happening. but what if there is no way to prevent it?

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby stevemc » Thu Jun 07, 2012 13:45:51

don't you think other teams would follow suit and it would catch up with the Nationals in short order? I would think Detroit of all teams would start to do this as well if that was the pattern.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby FTN » Thu Jun 07, 2012 13:58:46

stevemc wrote:don't you think other teams would follow suit and it would catch up with the Nationals in short order? I would think Detroit of all teams would start to do this as well if that was the pattern.


possibly. but the first team to do it, when everyone else plays by the rules, has a big advantage. at the same time, like 15 of 30 teams contained to largely play by the unwritten slot rules, allowing a few teams (tampa, washington, pittsburgh, toronto, boston) to exploit the system. everyone had a chance to spend unlimited amounts the last 30 years, but only a few teams really hammered the system.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby Squire » Thu Jun 07, 2012 14:26:41

Well that kinda assumes that you really don't care what high priced HS talent you end up with. I mean if the Nationals pay the tax and forfeit their 1st and 2nd round draft picks, their first pick next year is like 95 again right? That's 94 players they won't have access to. That's something of a penalty.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby andyb » Thu Jun 07, 2012 14:27:24

FTN wrote:
stevemc wrote:don't you think other teams would follow suit and it would catch up with the Nationals in short order? I would think Detroit of all teams would start to do this as well if that was the pattern.


possibly. but the first team to do it, when everyone else plays by the rules, has a big advantage. at the same time, like 15 of 30 teams contained to largely play by the unwritten slot rules, allowing a few teams (tampa, washington, pittsburgh, toronto, boston) to exploit the system. everyone had a chance to spend unlimited amounts the last 30 years, but only a few teams really hammered the system.
It is certainly a pretty wide loophole, though I wonder if MLB would prevent it with interim rules they make up along the way. I think they saw this huge influx of college senior signings as a potential problem when they got wind of teams that might be signing the team batboy for $1 with a high pick to clear cap room.
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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby Squire » Thu Jun 07, 2012 14:34:18

Yeah but lets not overlook that there's a penalty for that. In essence you are forfeiting the pick. Its like "financially trading up" Who's to say that you aren't better with 2 players (say one for 600,000 and for 400,000) rather than 2 players (say one for 995,000 and one for 5,000)?

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby Polar Bear Phan » Thu Jun 07, 2012 14:38:48

andyb wrote:It is certainly a pretty wide loophole, though I wonder if MLB would prevent it with interim rules they make up along the way.


My assumption is they would just not approve overslot deals (by 5% or more) in year 2 of the experiment. They'd argue that the team has already forfeited the 1st round pick for the following draft and cannot sign deals that would necessitate losing a pick they don't have.

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Re: 2012 Draft: Phillies picks, bios, signings, etc.

Postby stevemc » Thu Jun 07, 2012 14:54:11

also - doesn't the draft pool in this scenario for the Nationals shrink each year by having less picks in the top 10 rounds? Therefore doesn't the tax compound itself year after year in this scenario? There has to be a breaking point.

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