I love taking a guy like Cozens. Huge guy with a big lefty uppercut power swing who is not just a stiff unathletic slug? Why should I give a fuck with Jim Callis says about it, especially since we continued to take interesting, high ceiling preps after the pick?

Phillies have had many recent hits on slottish early prep guys like D'Arnaud, Gose, Knapp, etc

Grotewold wrote:

FTN wrote:im a fan of the drafting pitching and buying bats philosophy

Can you expand on this

The most polished college hitters are always taken in the first 15 or so picks. Rarely do you find college guys who slip through the cracks and become stars outside of the first few rounds. You don't find an Evan Longoria or Troy Tulowitzki at #31 of the first round. Even the "scrappy grinders" like Pedroia were 2nd round picks. The threshold for an every day player on a championship caliber team is really high. You can draft college hitters in the 3rd-5th rounds and you might find a good player, but its unlikely you'll find a star. The Phillies are never really in a position to take college bats that profile as all stars. Most teams outside of the top 15 don't have that chance. You might get lucky, draft a guy who had a down year or was injured, and he bounces back. Like Ryan Howard, but those guys are really rare, all things considered.

To draft impact bats outside of the top 15, you have to go high school most times. And high school position players are very risky. Its tough to evaluate a hitter's ability when hes facing high school kids throwing in the 70s without breaking balls. Its unfair. So then you have to evaluate him based on a small handful of at bats at showcase events against other good prospects. But what if he has a bad day? Guys get dinged and dropped down draft boards for poor performances at one or two showcase events, which seems pretty unfair. But ultimately, its really tough to know how a hitter will fare in making adjustments to breaking balls, to better velocity.

Evaluating a pitcher is much easier. You look at his arm strength, you look at his ability to spin a breaking ball, and his ability to repeat his delivery. Its easier to disregard results for a pitcher if he has the core skills you can refine. Its a lot tougher to teach a hitter not to swing at a curveball in the dirt, because part of that is innate. Pitching, on the free agent market, is also very expensive. And because of the nature of pitcher injuries, its a lot riskier to make huge investments via free agency.

Drafting at the back of the first round, the Phillies will not really have a chance to draft a college level star bat. So they could try to develop their own. But an 18 year old high school shortstop or centerfielder has a huge beta. Because of the risk associated with giving pitchers $20M per year for 6 years, due to injury, I think it makes more sense to give stud all star hitters $20M per year for 6 years and instead try to develop your own pitching. Look at what Hamels has given the Phillies in terms of performance and value. Howard, Utley and Rollins have been great success stories offensively. Howard fits the outlier criteria i mentioned above. Utley has surpassed his pre-draft hype, but was a first rounder. Rollins was a raw prep bat, hes developed as well as you could hope, but it was a slow development. Most of those guys don't ever fully develop as Rollins has. But look at Victorino. Another team drafted him, they spent a ton of time trying to develop him, they lost him and the Phillies reaped the reward. Same deal with Werth. First round pick, took forever to develop, bounced around, Phillies reaped the reward.

Pitchers also can move quicker, and their roles are more tightly defined. If you draft an 18 year old shortstop, theres a 50/50 chance he has to move to either 2b or 3b, and he may get too big and eventually have to move to the outfield, which can create logistical issues. Likewise, a guy with only the ability to play 1B or LF limits what you can do, especially at the big league level. With a pitcher, you know hes either a starter or reliever. And if you have a stacked rotation and a stud arm coming up, you can always parlay that stud arm in to something of need. Like the Mariners did with Pineda. They have tons of pitching coming, they needed a bat. Because of the demand for pitching, you can always leverage your pitching assets.

I just think its tougher to develop a hitter than a pitcher, as a general rule. And the Phillies have certainly had a tougher time developing bats. Draft pitching.

very interesting insights, thanks

awesome stuff, flop

pp readers missing out

I love it when he does that

should start a blog

the phillies have traditionally gone heavy on pitching, mostly prep pitching. and this is smart for a few reasons:

a.) most college coaches dont give a shit about a prospect's long term health and professional status. college coaches want to win, because winning makes your program look better, which attracts better recruits
b.) because of that, most college coaches will let a guy throw an absurd number of pitches. in some cases, he'll let a guy throw an absurd number of pitches on a friday and then pitch 3 innings of relief on a sunday. i shouldnt have to explain why that is dangerous
c.) college coaches have an idea of what an ideal workout/throwing program should look like. and only in a few cases do they let their own players create their own programs. trevor bauer is an exception, not the rule.
d.) lots of college coaches don't let catchers call their own game, which means pitchers aren't getting to call their own game. how do you learn to set up hitters and pitch to your strengths in game when the manager is calling the game? at the same time, most managers don't want pitchers throwing their third best pitch in a big game on a friday night, even when working on that changeup is probably going to make the guy better down the road.
e.) college teams really only use three starters (most series are friday-saturday-sunday) and so if you don't end up in a rotation or you don't stick in the rotation, you're limited to pitching out of the bullpen, a few innings here or there, or a spot start. not good for development
f.) prep arms are basically blank slates for minor league pitching instructors/coordinators. you can eliminate bad habits early. you can work with guys on specific things year round. you can craft their throwing routines, you can build individualized strengthening programs
g.) minor leagues also allow for controlling innings and workloads. and while teams do want to win and provide a winning culture, most organizations understand the goal of the minor leagues is to develop big league players. its why teams tell a guy to throw 15 changeups per game, even if he might not need the pitch to succeed at that particular level. he'll need it later. its why minor league stats have to be taken in context, and sometimes we don't even understand the context.

Squire wrote:JE found some links that indicate that both Zach Green and Andrew Pullin have agreed to deals.

Thought this was interesting from the article he posted

Pullin and Gueller played on rival teams for all four years of high school, but they are friends, Pullin said, and have played against each other since they were in elementary school.

Drafted players have until July 13 to decide whether to sign, but Pullin made his decision quickly. He took the Phillies’ offer and will forgo a college career at the University of Oregon. He likely will be assigned to the Gulf Coast League Phillies, the organization’s rookie league affiliate.

Pullin said the organization is interested in moving him to second base.

“It’s been my dream to play professional baseball,” Pullin said. “I got the opportunity, and I took it.”

Pullin was in a class at school when he got a phone call from Rick Jacques, the Phillies’ Northwest scout, informing the 6-foot, 185-pounder that he was Philadelphia’s fifth pick of the day. Pullin casually stepped out of class.

“I didn’t want to make too big of a scene,” he said.

My favorite part of the MLB draft is seeing all of these players picked from colleges that I had no idea even existed.

this was my favorite

http://www.mines.edu/

when it was announced on mlb.com i thought they said colorado school of mimes.

i was thinking the same thing. the mining school is my absolute favorite

Same. I still remember that one.

Phillies take some 6'7 Juco righty. Intrigued.

Colorado School of Mines is no joke. Serious engineering school, not so great for baseball. But hey Shane Carwin went there and he could turn your face into hamburger helper.

i wonder if the phillies got permission to re-draft ryan garvey. i think they wanted to sign him last year, his stock dropped.

Ryan Dunn drafted by Tampa Bay. Feel free to insert dead or Summer Catch joke here.

Texas took some kid from El Capitan HS. Think we missed an opportunity there.

17th rounder is david hill, RHP, el modena HS, Orange, CA

6'2'', 180 lbs

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?conte ... d=29113154

i hope the phillies draft alex swim, c from elon.

because he went to elon. and his name is swim.

The 6-foot, 185-pound Swim has been an everyday player for the Phoenix since he walked on campus, starting 165 games in three seasons. He burst onto the scene as a freshman, hitting .310/.342/.403. His bat cooled as a sophomore, but he bounced back in 2012 by hitting .361/.402/.454 in 227 at-bats. His bat is light, but he handles it well. He is very difficult to strike out, fanning just 39 times in his career. Scouts take interest because he provides solid defense behind the plate. He has a strong arm that could improve with a shorter release. He runs a tick above-average and could be a fourth outfielder if he doesn't stick behind the plate.