being kind of a meat and potatoes/SLG and OBP sort of guy, is there something I'm not seeing in Headley's numbers that make him particularly attractive?

last three years

.262/.342/.392/.734
.264/.327/.375/.702
.289/.374/.399/.773

Houshphandzadeh wrote:being kind of a meat and potatoes/SLG and OBP sort of guy, is there something I'm not seeing in Headley's numbers that make him particularly attractive?

last three years

.262/.342/.392/.734
.264/.327/.375/.702
.289/.374/.399/.773

Career home (PETCO): .229/.319/.336
Career away: .303/.364/.441

Only a .759 career OPS at Coors Field, so you can't really even argue that that is inflating his road numbers.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:being kind of a meat and potatoes/SLG and OBP sort of guy, is there something I'm not seeing in Headley's numbers that make him particularly attractive?

last three years

.262/.342/.392/.734
.264/.327/.375/.702
.289/.374/.399/.773

he's young, can hit pretty well(COMPARED TO OTHER 3B) and isn't a bad defensive player. in less than 450PA (200 shy of a full season i guess?) he put up 2.7WAR. pull it out to a full year and thats around 4war. which is pretty awesome for a mid 20's kid.

edit: if he qualified with enough PA's he would be the 7th best hitting 3B in baseball. and he will probably only go up from there

Thanks, I'm sold

Also he's named Chase. That could play in Philly.

Bakestar wrote:

Soren wrote:I'm not counting on polanco having a wOBA over .300

OK.

outside of March/April he only had a wOBA over .300 in one month, and that was September. His high point of the season after April was a .693 OPS.

Soren wrote:

Bakestar wrote:

Soren wrote:I'm not counting on polanco having a wOBA over .300

OK.

outside of March/April he only had a wOBA over .300 in one month, and that was September. His high point of the season after April was a .693 OPS.

He was playing with a double hernia most of the season. You may very well be right, he's a year older in addition to the elbow injury, but I think there's a substantial chance he rebounds which, coupled with his defense and his contract status, means you shouldn't make a move unless you make damn sure you're getting a pretty substantial upgrade.

double hernia should cancel itself out

And, of course, part of it is that Polanco's always injured. Last year it was his hernia and back. The year before it was his elbow. The guy's been in the league since 1998 and he's got one year in which he played over 147 games.

Plus, his OPS for the last 5 years have been:

2007: .846
2008: .768
2009: .727
2010: .726
2011: .674

I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but I believe that's what they call a trend.

He's 36, coming off injuries the last two years to his elbow and back and a double hernia. Sure, he could stay healthy and improve. I hope he does. But I sure wouldn't bet the farm on it.

You're probably gonna need more punch in the lineup at either LF or 3B. Why not wait until July to make that determination? Or, if Polanco and Mayberry/Brown are producing, the offseason, when there are more options.

It's not like the Pads would give the guy away now

Dom Brown ain't no giveaway. thousand crunches every morning while you're eating your cheerios

a solid core is the new market inefficiency

JFLNYC wrote:
I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but I believe that's what they call a trend.

You always pull this condescending false modesty shtick out of your rhetorical bag of tricks, and it's incredibly aggravating.

Offense has declined league-wide. Polanco's offense is declining at a faster rate than that of the league overall, of course, but that does mitigate the trend somewhat.

Anyway, Polanco is old and he gets hurt a lot, but he's still an incredibly valuable defensive player, and he's not getting paid very much at all. It's not a great situation, but it's not terrible, at least not right now, and I don't think it's wise to compound the situation by making additional mistakes. I'm far more concerned with third base in 2013 and beyond or, if someone like Chase Headley becomes available for the right price, you make a move. I'm just not sure there's a way to upgrade over Polanco in a way that doesn't badly hamstring the team in other ways down the road.

There's one year left on his contract. One. If he proves to be .500 OPSy horrible in 2012, then Wigginton and Valdez will hold it down until July when you look to make a trade. I just don't want to make a move that's going to purge more minor league talent from the pipeline until they know they must.

I like Headley a lot because he's entering his prime and solves the positional problem for a few years. It'd be worth bleeding off more prospects for a guy like that. But the Padres will want a lot for him.

His 2010 wRC+ was 97, his career number is 99. Of course when you go back and frame it starting at his fluke year where he got MVP votes, gonna look he's been in a precipitous decline. I won't deny that he blew horribly for most of last year at the plate, so I hope that doesn't happen again

at housh and benny lavz

If Rube would prefer to give 350 ABs against RHP to Laynce F.Nix instead of a Dom Brown who will be 25 in Sept. what are we talking about here?

We're still believing things Rube says, huh

The dude said Wilson Valdez might have been our MVP in 2010 for fuck's sake

I'm believing he gave 2 years to Laynce Nix. And that Mayberry is in line for ABs against RHP if Nix fails.