Phillies thoughts of the random persuasion

by **phorever** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 10:58:45

Trent Steele wrote:I want Jose Reyes

i think getting reyes would be the best offseason move possible, if not for the fact that the howard contract probably makes it impossible, which makes me hate the howard contract even more, which i thought was impossible.

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:20:49

ANYTHING IS POSSSSSSSIIBBBBBLLEEEEEE

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:23:34

phorever wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:I want Jose Reyes

i think getting reyes would be the best offseason move possible, if not for the fact that the howard contract probably makes it impossible, which makes me hate the howard contract even more, which i thought was impossible.

You really would just need to find someone to take on Victorino's or Blanton's contract. It could be done.

The farther I get from Game 5, the more I want to completely overhaul this team except for the Three Aces and Utley.

by **Soren** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:25:26

(aces) Chooch, Howard, Utley, Reyes, ??, Mayberry, ??, Pence. Conceivably you could try Brown/Mayberry/Pence in the OF

by **Wheels Tupay** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:34:19

Everyone needs to stop trying to trade victorino.

by **BigEd76** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:38:39

Reyes would fit exactly with what smug wants to change this offseason (get younger, get faster, get moar .300), but there's as much of a chance of him coming here as CLIFF LEE coming back. It'll never happen. Never. yeaaa

by **Woody** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:57:30

Not winning the WS this year ruined everything. Had they at least made the World Series, they could have raised ticket prices $5 across the board and dumped that $15-17MM into inflating our payroll to Smugian levels

by **Barry Jive** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:20:23

Wheels Tupay wrote:Everyone needs to stop trying to trade victorino.

It makes sense only if they have a bad first half next year or if they can get a good deal for Matt Kemp. For win-now purposes (which should be the yearly focus for the team at this point) there aren't really any surefire CF options that would be better than Victorino. He makes 9.5 million this year and should be a relative bargain at that price. Since the Phils don't have any viable replacements at CF, it doesn't make any sense to dump his salary so they can afford to overpay a FA at another position of need, especially one in which they already have a potential short-term replacement waiting in AAA.

by **joe table** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:26:38

There is plenty of flexibility. A statement like "Howard precludes Reyass" is invalid, IMO

Taking these (not very conservative, IMO) assumptions:

1) 3.5mm in buyouts for Oswalt and Lidge
2) Chole gets 14mm in arb
3) Pentz gets 10mm in arb
4) Kendirk tendered and gets 3.5mm (it's probably happening, deal with it now)
5) Francisco tendered and gets 2mm, or NTed and his replacement gets this
6) 5th OF, backup C and two bench IFs make about 5mm (mirrors 2011 team)
7) We carry 4 minimum salary relievers out of the Stutes/Bastardo/Schwimer/DeFratus/Herndon/Aumont group

Then we are at 147mm with only closer and SS not accounted for (I even used 500k for min salary spots, that may be high). Assuming we won't drop payroll, could easily do Reyes and the closer of our choice for that, with money left over. Re-doing Chole wouldn't necessarily raise the 2012 number either, could lower it if backloaded

I'm sort of ambivalent about Reyes though. I think the risk of not getting the ROI on Reyes would be just as great if not greater than Rollins. Unless you could get Reyes for only 1 more year than you would have had to give Jim (I think there will be a 2 or more year market gap though just because of how great Reyes' year was, teams are smarter now but still fall for career years).

by **Bill McNeal** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:44:24

I just don't know about Reyes. He's played 36, 133, 126 games in the last three seasons. Before that he was a 150+ every year. I guess the injury situation wasn't as bad as I was thinking it was, something about him rubs me the wrong way, I know the good/bad clubhouse guy stuff can be overblown, but how would replacing Rollins with Reyes affect the chemistry? I have no idea, but could you picture Utley, Howard or Rollins laying down a bunt basehit on the last day of the season and then taking himself out of the game, just to win the batting title?

by **GrizzledVeteran** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 12:59:21

Bill McNeal wrote:I just don't know about Reyes. He's played 36, 133, 126 games in the last three seasons. Before that he was a 150+ every year. I guess the injury situation wasn't as bad as I was thinking it was, something about him rubs me the wrong way, I know the good/bad clubhouse guy stuff can be overblown, but how would replacing Rollins with Reyes affect the chemistry? I have no idea, but could you picture Utley, Howard or Rollins laying down a bunt basehit on the last day of the season and then taking himself out of the game, just to win the batting title?

This. I want no part of the guy.

by **lethal** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:12:59

I'm not advocating Reyes because I think he'll get a 6 year 100 million dollar deal at least, but he's never been in a clubhouse with established leaders and winners. I think in the phillies clubhouse, that doesn't happen.

Reyes is 5 years younger than Rollins, so a 6 year deal takes him to 1 year older than Rollins is now, not too bad.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:19:49

Bill McNeal wrote:I just don't know about Reyes. He's played 36, 133, 126 games in the last three seasons. Before that he was a 150+ every year. I guess the injury situation wasn't as bad as I was thinking it was, something about him rubs me the wrong way, I know the good/bad clubhouse guy stuff can be overblown, but how would replacing Rollins with Reyes affect the chemistry? I have no idea, but could you picture Utley, Howard or Rollins laying down a bunt basehit on the last day of the season and then taking himself out of the game, just to win the batting title?

I can't picture any of them being within 40 points of a batting title, so no.

by **joe table** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:20:05

I think 3(Jimmy) vs 6(DR Raggedy Andy) I'd go Jim

If I could get Reyes for 5 I'd do that over Jim for 3

4 v 6, probably gotta go w/the fidgety ex Met 'mo

4 vs 7 I'd be scared either way

by **traderdave** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:32:51

Please don't make me have to root for Jose Reyes.

by **laf837** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:41:37

traderdave wrote:Please don't make me have to root for Jose Reyes.

I rooted for Dykstra when he came over. I think I despised him worse than Reyes.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:43:04

Trent Steele wrote:Someone tell me it's not his fault that Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton all lost velocity and/or pitched poorly. The drafts seems to have gotten better (although they suck so it's not hard to draft Wieters and Machado) but Rowell, Brandon Snyder, Wade Townsend, Garett Olson, and Pedro Beato were all 1st round picks when he was Scouting Director and Hobgood looks like a complete disaster.

keithlaw keithlaw
Big fan. Good evaluator. Good fit with Phillies’ emphasis on upside guys. RT @longenhagen: @keithlaw What can you tell me about Joe Jordan?

by **Soren** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:51:06

doomed

by **philliesphhan** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 13:53:06

MoBettle wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
bleh wrote:Howard led the team in walks

Largely because he led them in plate appearances and got intentionally walked 16 times.

He had the highest BB% of anyone on the team that qualified. He was also highest not counting intentional walks. Heck he had the highest BB% of anyone that played for the Phillies besides Sardinia and Dom Brown (RIP).

And yes, I know that walks don't tell the whole story. But still, it's a sign that this shitty hitting philosophy goes beyond Howard.

2005: The outfield of Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Jason Lofton alone combined for 292 walks (24 intentional) in 2,137 PAs

2011 Rollins, Utley, Pence (As a Phillies), Ibanez, Polanco, Victorino, Ruiz combined for 301 walks (25 intentional) in 3,477 PAs

While they do need to show more patience, the game in 2005 and 2011 is so different. 10 :!:

teams in MLB scored fewer than 4 runs per game this season. In 2005, only 1 did.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 14:06:10

ReadingPhilly wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Someone tell me it's not his fault that Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton all lost velocity and/or pitched poorly. The drafts seems to have gotten better (although they suck so it's not hard to draft Wieters and Machado) but Rowell, Brandon Snyder, Wade Townsend, Garett Olson, and Pedro Beato were all 1st round picks when he was Scouting Director and Hobgood looks like a complete disaster.

keithlaw keithlaw
Big fan. Good evaluator. Good fit with Phillies’ emphasis on upside guys. RT @longenhagen: @keithlaw What can you tell me about Joe Jordan?

Very happy to hear that.

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