• Vance Worley has now made 20 career starts. The Phillies have won 17 of them. Want to guess the last team to go 17-3 in ANY pitcher's first 20 career starts. Good luck. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the pitcher was -- ta-taaaa -- Bob Wickman, for the 1992-93 Yankees. You were expecting maybe Pedro Martinez?

Doll Is Mine wrote:He also thinks the Giants' offense sucks here.

Soren wrote:Dayn Perry has been driving the naysay the phils bandwagon since 08.

Soren wrote:Tracy Ringolsby

Houshphandzadeh wrote:

Soren wrote:Tracy Ringolsby

true professional!

is the rainy #$&! done or am I just getting faked out?

jamiethekiller wrote:can someone post that Dayn Perry article about the phillies flaws. i don't have an insider or whatever account

Bold, sweeping declaration: The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies are good at baseball.



The Phillies boast a hefty run differential of plus-169 (second to the Yankees and their plus-205) and are on pace for a franchise-record 106 wins.



Chief among their many merits? One of the best rotations you've ever seen. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are both worthy of the Cy Young, and Cole Hamels has been roughly their equal when healthy. Even Vance Worley has thrived in spot duty.



Given the strength of the Phillies' starting pitching and the fact that they'll almost certainly enjoy home-field advantage throughout the postseason, consider them the favorites for the belt and the title.



Of course, there's no such thing as a fait accompli in baseball.



The short playoff series lends itself quite nicely to flukeish outcomes and minor miracles. In a game with so much structural, built-in parity, nothing is to be assumed in October. But beyond those annual considerations, do the Phillies have a soft, hidden underbelly that could be exploited in the postseason?

One would expect a team playing .657 ball to do lots of things well, but is that the case with the '11 Phillies? (See the chart at right).

The numbers don't lie
Statistical categories that might suggest red flags for Phillies

Statistic Phillies 2011 NL Rank
wRC+ 5th
Rotation WAR 1st
Bullpen WAR 10th
UZR 12th
To the surprise of no one, Philly's weapons-grade rotation tops the loop in WAR. But the rest is something of a mixed bag.



The bullpen seems to be a problem, no? However, consider that, because of Philly's ability to pitch deeply into games, they've logged the fewest bullpen innings of any NL squad (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and others will tend to do that for you). So the sample size is not as large as you might think, and, because of the strength of that rotation, the Phillies depend upon their bullpen less than most.



Also consider that the Phillies were without the services of Brad Lidge until late July. So, although the bullpen would seem to be lacking, the Philllies haven't suffered as a result.



The defense -- according to UZR -- doesn't grade out especially well. But consider that (a) Philly pitchers tend to miss a lot of bats, and (b) even at the team level, one year (or less) of defensive data might not mean much.



As the table on the right shows, for the Philadelphia offensive attack, it's mostly a matter of not hitting left-handers.

Messing with southpaws
How the Phillies have fared against right- and left-handed pitchers

Statistic Phillies 2011 Rank
wRC+ vs. RHP 5th
wRC+ vs. LHP 11th
Such a split is not surprising, perhaps, on a team whose top right-handed power source is part-timer John Mayberry.



And this is the case despite the fact that Citizens Bank Park tends to be a fairly accommodating environment for right-handed power hitters (who, in turn, tend to hit lefties fairly well).



And even so, the Phillies are much less potent when a port-sider is on the mound for the opposition. This raises the matter of whether this particular Philly weakness might be exploited in the postseason.



Now let us state the obvious: To be exploited by a lefty, one must first face a lefty. The good news for the Phillies is that, among likely NL playoff opponents, no team has a bounty of left-handed starters.



The Arizona Diamondbacks, who almost certainly will face the Phillies in the NLDS, have only Joe Saunders from the left side. The Milwaukee Brewers have Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, but Narveson is unlikely to be part of the playoff rotation. As for the Atlanta Braves, no lefty figures to be a postseason starter.



If the Phillies do as expected and make the World Series? Largely, the story continues. The Boston Red Sox? One lefty likely in the playoff rotation. The New York Yankees? Same story. The Detroit Tigers? Not a single left-hander to be found.



The "sum of all fears" scenario, however, is an encounter with the reigning AL-champion Texas Rangers. The Rangers, one might notice, will perhaps trot out three left-handers in the playoffs, and two of those left-handers -- C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison -- are the Rangers' most effective starters.



Scaled across a seven-game series, that might come to five starts against lefties. Suffice to say, the Phillies would prefer other circumstances. They might, for instance, prefer that the AL West flag go to the Angels, who have no lefties in the rotation.



Of course, Philly may well prevail regardless of opponent. But for the smoothest road ahead, the Phaithful should summon their energies against a possible World Series matchup with the Rangers.