http://espn.go.com/mlb/huntforoctober


NL Matchup is strange for the eyes to adapt to...

Eem wrote:He could throw a bullpen in Chicago, and then go from there

Man that's pretty seriously good news

takes some of the pressure off the hunt for another RH hitter/outfielder

One of these nights they're gonna interview Mayberr while he's wearing a bow tie and reading The Atlantic

i thought before the season began that a combination of the age-injury factor a platoon advantages gave mayberry+brown+francisco+gload a good chance to provide more value than werth this season for a much lower price. i would never have guessed mayberry would be doing it all by himself. check out the current fangraph war numbers.

and SPEAKING OF FANGRAPHS, it seems to be the latest play of employ of our own MattS...

phils have the nl's best july offense so far, playing mostly without victorino.

I should be well over it, but still find it annoying that Gillick explains his move of Abreu because he "wasn't a high energy guy" (fair enough, I suppose, if you're into that sort of thing)and that "we thought that by trading him, guys like Utley, victorino and Rollins might play with more energy, and that was the case" (except, of course, they were all "high energy" guys from the get go).

JUburton wrote:

Eem wrote:Boarder JUburton did some research himself on this and wrote it up but I figure I'll let him post it

But I feel, and numbers show that there may be some hitters that truly are more than just their wOBA, our own Ryan Howard being one of them. Note, I’m not taking Howard’s defense into account here and I’m not saying he’ll be worth 125 million, but his true value must lie somewhere between preeminent power hitter of our generation and worst contract extension of all time, regardless of what the internet might say. Of course MattS did a great job with this article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=10677 that I read again before I started looking at this stuff.
.

I agree to an extent that WPA gets dismissed too quickly by some stat-minded people (due to the fact that WPA can be influenced significantly by a small amount of high leverage ABs, or differences in "RBI opportunities" between players). I think the general idea (about which I tend to agree) is that wOBA is predictive, while WPA is descriptive.

At the same time, a guy who has hit really well situationally or in late game spots in a given season can provide great value to his team in those instances....so I do think that in evaluating past performance, guys should definitely be credited (or dinged) for these context-dependent performances. In a single game or series, for example, WPA is the single best stat to measure offensive contribution IMO

Howard does get a nice bump in the WPA vs wOBA for his career to date, with 24.36 career WPA vs 210 wRAA (which would convert to just about 21.0 batting WAR). You've done a nice job illuminating some of the reasons that account for that (relative success w/RISP).

However, another key factor in his edge in WPA vs wRAA has been success in high leverage spots--ie, not only all RISP spots, but specifically late game RISP spots. That has been the case this year, where he has gotten several go ahead RBIs late in games (which is why his WPA outpaces his wRAA significantly yet again). I would argue that this is one of the years where his wOBA most undersells his offensive value to date, not only because has he gotten a lot of these key hits, but also because he's only had Utley around for half the season in front of him

To get into whether this type of high leverage success is in any way predictive, or more random, is opening another whole can of worms. So in conclusion, I am definitely comfortable extending Howard credit for his context-dependent performance in the past, but I am not necessarily sold that he can keep up this WPA vs wOBA increase for the long haul

swishnicholson wrote:I should be well over it, but still find it annoying that Gillick explains his move of Abreu because he "wasn't a high energy guy" (fair enough, I suppose, if you're into that sort of thing)and that "we thought that by trading him, guys like Utley, victorino and Rollins might play with more energy, and that was the case" (except, of course, they were all "high energy" guys from the get go).

Better than calling Abreu a clubhouse cancer or whatever I suppose.

I think players should be described in different ways when they're bad in the clubhouse. Cancer is over used. How about:

Clubhouse Scurvy.

Clubhouse African Sleeping Sickness.

Clubhouse Yellow Fever.

Clubhouse Bubonic Plague.

Bucky wrote:and SPEAKING OF FANGRAPHS, it seems to be the latest play of employ of our own MattS...

He and fellow Philly guy Eric Seidman have not done anything at BP in a long time. I wonder what happened? I think Seidman and his brother have been at Fangraphs for a while.

Brad Lidge with a 1-2-3 inning tonight on 11 pitches with a K.

any news on yimmy?

Rev_Beezer wrote:any news on yimmy?

Here's not much:

Manuel also said Rollins had "tightness" in his right leg early in the game.

But Manuel said Rollins' health wasn't the reason he pulled the shortstop from the game.

Asked if he was OK, Rollins said: "Unfortunately, no." Moments later, Rollins also said he was "zero percent" concerned about his condition.

Rollins had two hits in the game. In the eighth inning, he bounced into a double play with the bases loaded and didn't appear to be running at full speed.

"I just wanted [Michael] Martinez to play short," Manuel said of the decision to remove Rollins from the game.

Grotewold wrote:One of these nights they're gonna interview Mayberr while he's wearing a bow tie and reading The Atlantic

Sarge: Another big night with the bat. You are really turning out to be a dangerous weapon with the bat for the fightin' Phils.

Mayberry: You know what the most dangerous thing in America is right?
A Nigga with a library card.

vic was 3/5 for reading last night

Cole Hamels' career ERA in 16 games vs. Mets is 4.69. Kyle Kendrick's career ERA in 23 games against Mets is 2.88. Baseball is a funny game.

Don't know if this is posted anywhere:

Placido Polanco's two days of batting practice have not gone well, leaving some doubt whether he will come off the disabled list on Wednesday, as scheduled.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... i&c_id=phi

Thank God for Mike Mart.

Hopefully Halladay throws a complete game tomorrow. Pen could use an off day.

ek wrote:yes right above you

a post earlier made me think about a transaction the phillies made that i am now wondering if i am remembering correctly. in my mind it was the mid to late 90s and the phillies added a relief pitcher (maybe two) from the padres when they were in town. the players simply switched walked down the hall and switched uniforms. i can't seem to find a good site that tracks transactions back that far. anyone remember if this is correct and who the player(s) was/were?