Cross post from the Hunter thread

jamiethekiller wrote:People can Point to WAR and say that Bourn is a better player and thats fine and all. Put Bourn and Pence in CBP together and i bet Pence comes out as a better player than Bourn according to teh WAR model. CBP's dimensions are just so favorable to outfielders(especially CF) that its not really fair. CF in CBP is a cakewalk compared to Minute Maid park. Bourn is a FANTASTIC CF and a really solid player. but you take him out of a very friendly environment to build on his value(MMP) and put him in a place like CBP and his value goes out the window. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of Bourns defensive value leave while he's in Atlanta. Its just not a really difficult field to play.

So when it comes down to it in CPB its mostly a wRC+ vs wRC+ of Pence vs Bourn and Pence is going to win everytime. I'll take a slugging OF in CBP any day of the week.

gaurantee his value drops in Atlanta. There is nothing difficult about fielding in Atlanta.

That's a good point. It's still conceivable that he's more valuable than Pence though.

One reason that Pence cost more than Bourn despite being (theoretically) worse at baseball is that he's under control through 2013, whereas Bourn is a FA after next year.

And Bourn is a Boras client

phatj wrote: One other thing - Bourn has hit mostly leadoff, so he's gotten more plate appearances, helping him accumulate additional value.

Exactly. That is really why comparing the two using WAR isn't even relevant. Bourn is better than a replacement CFer and gets additional value for batting more (as a leadoff guy). He has better WAR value because of things not relevant to making the Phils better.

That stuff isn't important to the Phillies. The Phils don't need a CF leadoff guy. They have that covered very well. They needed a RH bat -- a corner outfielder who can run and field and throw -- a guy whose personality fits right in with the wonderful synergy that is this team -- a younger guy who will be on the club a few more years -- a guy with some power -- a guy with the great stink eye that leads to Ibanez and Howard hitting like crazy (OK a little joke to lighten the mood).

Bourn was a great pickup for the Braves because the Braves had nothing in CF and they replaced that with a guy who is great defensively and has offensive value. But Bourn isn't what the Phils needed. The Phils got the best RH bat available at a position of need. They paid a lot. Nearly the same as they paid for true big time stars like Halladay and Lee and Oswalt.

But that's OK to me. Pence gives them a better shot in the post-season and for all of the next two years and he makes them a better club. And that is worth it to me.

Measuring comparative value with a replacement level player baseline seems utterly irrelevant when you're talking about a team like the Phillies

Overbay DFA

Grotewold wrote:Overbay DFA

Gload replacement? I'm, personally, holding out hope for a return of Thome...

Trent Steele wrote:Measuring comparative value with a replacement level player baseline seems utterly irrelevant when you're talking about a team like the Phillies

Are you agreeing with me (?) because I think you just said in one sentence what I was trying to say with my multi paragraph post.

PhillieMooDo wrote:

Grotewold wrote:Overbay DFA

Gload replacement? I'm, personally, holding out hope for a return of Thome...

Who got his 8th hr the other day, now 3 away I believe.

smitty wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:Measuring comparative value with a replacement level player baseline seems utterly irrelevant when you're talking about a team like the Phillies

Are you agreeing with me (?) because I think you just said in one sentence what I was trying to say with my multi paragraph post.

Yes. Basically, the "Bourn acquisition" may be better for the Braves than the "Pence acquisition" is for the Phillies under a WAR analysis because the Braves' projected CF WAR is alot closer to replacement level than the Phillies projected RF WAR absent the trades. That doesn't mean Bourn is better. It means the Braves are worse than the Phillies.

I also think WAR substantially overstates the scarcity of good field and speed OFs, which leads to a lowering of replacement level, and an increase of the WAR of guys like Bourn. Gose is probably a 4 win player right now, ffs.

Trent Steele wrote:

smitty wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:Measuring comparative value with a replacement level player baseline seems utterly irrelevant when you're talking about a team like the Phillies

Are you agreeing with me (?) because I think you just said in one sentence what I was trying to say with my multi paragraph post.

Yes. Basically, the "Bourn acquisition" may be better for the Braves than the "Pence acquisition" is for the Phillies under a WAR analysis because the Braves' projected CF WAR is alot closer to replacement level than the Phillies projected RF WAR absent the trades. That doesn't mean Bourn is better. It means the Braves are worse than the Phillies.

this is the same issue that third order has with the phils and why the braves always trump us.

Bourn is McLouth with better wheels.

Your Astros lineup:

Durango CF
Altuve 2B
Bourgeois RF
Lee 1B
Martinez LF
Barmes SS
Paredes 3B
Quintero C
Norris P

Good job, Wadey

Oh my

Trent Steele wrote:Your Astros lineup:

Durango CF
Altuve 2B
Bourgeois RF
Lee 1B
Martinez LF
Barmes SS
Paredes 3B
Quintero C
Norris P

Good job, Wadey

Carlos Lee must be about ready to murder someone.

And then eat them

It is not as definite as most people think that the Giants will make the playoffs. They are only 2 games ahead of the Diamondbacks, yet everyone assumes it will be a rematch of the Phils and Giants in the NLCS. Beltran certainly helps the Giants chances, but it is no guarantee that they make it. Diamondbacks are a weird team. A lot of players are having pretty good years, but no one is having an amazing season.

The consensus third best team in the NL has a negative run differential right now.

Nyjer Morgan had another funny/bizarre post game interview. Ed will find it and post it I'm sure.