bleh wrote:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php_cid=68783
edit: I guess I should point out that is "pitcher abuse points". The site layout/navigation for BP is pretty bad.
Here's what a guy named Steve Treder wrote about the Pitcher Abuse Points and pitch count stuff in general:
And the excellent, impressive body of work of Jazayerli and Woolner, including the central article "Analyzing PAP (Part Two): The Long-Term Injury Risk of High Pitch Counts," provides nothing, not a word, indicating that pitcher injury occurrence rates have declined in the era in which seasonal workloads have been substantially reduced to historical lows.
If there had been ever a moment in which Jazayerli and Woolner would have been likely to present such data, one would think it would have been in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, in which they were provided space to rebut Bill James' contention that "abuse" of specific pitchers hadn't resulted in any noticeable increase in injury rates. What better opportunity for them to roll out the finding that overall pitcher injury occurrence rates are down in the modern reduced-workload era -- yet "A Response in Defense of PAP" contains nothing of the sort.
The reason it isn't there, I'm almost certain, is that it doesn't exist. If it did, one can be confident that Jazayerli and Woolner, and Carroll, would have discovered it and provided it to us; there's every reason for them to do so. If they have, or someone else has and I've somehow missed it, I welcome the chance to be corrected; if anyone is aware of this information, please direct me to it.
All Righty Then
Last week I asserted that on the issue of pitch counts I firmly agree with the position of Bill James, as presented in his article "Abuse and Durability." To be very clear, allow me to present the specific conclusions that James draws with which I completely concur:
"I do not question that there is a risk of working a young pitcher too hard and destroying his arm, robbing him of his future" (p. 461)
Questioning the wisdom of how pitchers are being deployed in the modern era should absolutely not be construed as an assertion that pitchers, most particularly young pitchers, aren't very susceptible to injury, and shouldn't be handled with care.
"I do not question that the pitch counts are a potentially useful tool in steering clear of this disastrous result." (p. 461)
If I failed to make this clear last week, let me make it very clear here. Pitch counts are an essential tool; to ignore them would be completely foolish.
"I do not question that Rany and Keith's studies were done in good faith and with the best of intentions." (p. 461)
And their work deserves the highest respect.
"I think there is a natural balancing of risks, in almost any physical activity, and that this balancing of risks, with respect to the use of pitchers, has gotten out of whack." (p. 462)
In the ardent attempt to avoid the worst outcomes in pitching careers, the possibility of the very best outcomes has been precluded.
"Most injuries to pitchers are not the result of chronic overuse; some are, particularly to young pitchers, but most are not." (p. 463)
This is simply what the historical data tells us.
"Backing away from a pitcher's limits too far doesn't make a pitcher less vulnerable, it makes him more vulnerable. And pushing the envelope, while it may lead to a catastrophic event, is more likely to enhance the pitcher's durability than to destroy it." (p. 463)
A positive reinforcement dynamic between durability and heavy workload is evident in many realms of athletic endeavor, and the historical data suggests it's true in pitching as well.
Despite the above argument, I'd feel a lot better if Chuck doesn't make 120-130 + pitch outings too common for Roy. Especially so in a game like last nights. Chuck and Roy are certainly testing the theory though.
