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by **Ace Rothstein** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:07:41

SK790 wrote:I think most of us like Moyer, but hate his contract...

by **Napalm** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:08:54

Everyone loves him, but they can't wait for him to be gone

by **smitty** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:11:11

Trent Steele wrote:He was really, really good in 2008.
He was really, really bad last year (they were 15-15 in his starts).
He's been really good against the Braves this year (13 IP, 0 ER)
He's been really bad against everyone else. (6 IP, 5 Runs in 4 of his 5 other starts; 6 IP, 4 runs in the others).
He hasn't had one of those ERA killer starts yet this year. He will have several in interleague play.
He's fine for a 5th starter.
He gets paid like a 3rd starter.
I like him.
I want him to go away forever after this year.
I predict that by mid-June he ERA will be above 6 and everyone will hate him again.

I quit trying to predict what Moyer will do back when he was a Mariner and surrendering 44 home runs while pitching his home games in Safeco (huge). That was like 6 years ago.

I agree with all of the rest of the above and I'm not even gonna dispute your prediction because you have a very good chance of being right.

What I think is kinda cool though, is when the Phils overpay for someone they still get some value out of him and they don't overpay by THAT much. Compared to Suppan and Bedard and Dice K and Pavano and Lowe and Carlos Silva and all the other team's mistakes, the Phillies don't pay THAT much and get some good things rather than spending blood and treasure for guys who are all hurt or just totally suck.

Even last year, 15-15 isn't that bad for a 5th starter. I'm not sure there are many teams that have winning records with all their pitchers.

Moyer is pretty frightening to watch. Opposing hitters really crank some shots off of his slop pitches and they do it quite often. But he's only given up runs in 9 of 46 innings he's started this season. Not all of them are even earned and Herndon kinda was at fault for one of those innings.

I don't know how Moyer does it. Some day this joy ride will end. There's a great chance he'll be hated again before the season is over. But when I look back on Moyer's career in Philly it will mostly be good thoughts because he was mostly successful -- not a great or even good pitcher at times. But he helped the team overall.

by **smitty** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:18:11

phatj wrote:I like Moyer. He's a pretty damn good #5 pitcher, or a decent #4. He's also really easy to root for. It's pretty incredible that a 47-year-old could through a 2-hit complete game shutout and be on pace for over 20 wins. But it's just a statistical oddity; I'm not attaching any real meaning to the wins.

It's true, it is possible to glean meaning from W-L record, especially over a long career. But it's among the least efficient numbers available for that, so why bother?

Because winning games is how you win the division which is how you have to do before you get to the WFS. There aren't that many pitchers who totally stink and who have won a lot of games for very long in MLB. Moyer has doen that and he's continued to do so with the Phillies.

I would never use Moyer as an comparison to another pitcher. I'm not even sure what his efficient available numbers are or have been. I'd guess they'd say he's not all that good. That's why I think looking at his W/L record is not worthless. Becasue he's been able to win lots of games for a long, long time. I'd bet 1,000 bucks he's not a Hall of Fame quality pitcher. He might not even be an above average pitcher or much above average for his career. But he's won a lot of games.

I wouldn't use W/L record very often in evaluating a guy. But I think it's relevant in Moyer's case. It shows a value that isn't incredibly common in MLB.

by **phatj** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:29:39

smitty wrote:Because winning games is how you win the division which is how you have to do before you get to the WFS. There aren't that many pitchers who totally stink and who have won a lot of games for very long in MLB. Moyer has doen that and he's continued to do so with the Phillies.

Pitchers don't win games, teams win games.

by **smitty** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:31:08

phatj wrote:
smitty wrote:Because winning games is how you win the division which is how you have to do before you get to the WFS. There aren't that many pitchers who totally stink and who have won a lot of games for very long in MLB. Moyer has doen that and he's continued to do so with the Phillies.

Pitchers don't win games, teams win games.

Starting pitchers are not innocent bystanders in the process though.

by **phatj** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:38:03

Of course. But evaluating a pitcher according to W-L record when that's at least 50% attributable to contributions of other players, and when there are vastly more efficient ways to determine the pitcher's own contribution, strikes me as pretty silly.

by **Wheels Tupay** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:41:39

Trent Steele wrote:
He's fine for a 5th starter.
I predict that by mid-June he ERA will be above 6 and everyone will hate him again.

These two comments counter each other. An era above 6 is not good even for a number 5.

by **smitty** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:41:43

phatj wrote:Of course. But evaluating a pitcher according to W-L record when that's at least 50% attributable to contributions of other players, and when there are vastly more efficient ways to determine the pitcher's own contribution, strikes me as pretty silly.

I guess. If you want to attribute it to luck or whatever. But Moyer has been pretty damn lucky for a long time. And frankly, I'll take it.

by **CrashburnAlley** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:47:54

ek wrote:missanelli on werth...

said he was at the park last night. said that some scouts are telling their teams that members of the phils organization are saying there is no way they are letting werth go. even going as far as saying they would trade ibanez and eat half his salary to keep werth

They really fucking hate Raul!

by **CalvinBall** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:49:11

and then brown can come in and fill his shows and make the team a bit younger. that would be good.

by **Grotewold** » Tue May 18, 2010 15:53:22

The second Charlie Manuel show on WIP, from earlier today, is up. Very enjoyable

http://610wip.cbslocal.com/2010/05/18/t ... 5-18-2010/

by **Napalm** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:04:19

I know it's a business and everything Werth has done his whole career is leading up to this off season, but he won't find a place more enjoyable than Philly. He's got great teammates and he's part of a core that wins every year. He can keep his beard/flowing hair here and we worship him almost as much as Utley, in some cases more.
Sure he'll get paid more elsewhere, but I can't find a better situation in the league for him. I say that with a bit of bias, but I feel like both he and the Phils need each other.

by **smitty** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:06:14

ek wrote:missanelli on werth...

said he was at the park last night. said that some scouts are telling their teams that members of the phils organization are saying there is no way they are letting werth go. even going as far as saying they would trade ibanez and eat half his salary to keep werth

There's an article at BP addressing this -- it mentioned Ibanez has a no trade thing in his contract.

by **joe table** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:07:39

Missanelli went to law school too, so...

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:24:43

phatj wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:Moyer is 5-2. That's amazing. I know W-L isn't a great way to measure a pitcher's performance, but still.

He's on pace for 20+ wins.

Soren wrote:Jamie Moyer is getting 6 runs a game in support.

Well, sure. The players are all calm and content when Moyer takes the hill because of the pre-game routine of kicking back whilst he shares some Werther's Originals with them.

by **SK790** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:27:14

CrashburnAlley wrote:
ek wrote:missanelli on werth...

said he was at the park last night. said that some scouts are telling their teams that members of the phils organization are saying there is no way they are letting werth go. even going as far as saying they would trade ibanez and eat half his salary to keep werth

They really $#@! hate Raul!

I don't hate Raul, I hate his contract.

by **Wheels Tupay** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:29:17

smitty wrote:
ek wrote:missanelli on werth...

said he was at the park last night. said that some scouts are telling their teams that members of the phils organization are saying there is no way they are letting werth go. even going as far as saying they would trade ibanez and eat half his salary to keep werth

There's an article at BP addressing this -- it mentioned Ibanez has a no trade thing in his contract.

Smitty do you know the specifics of it? It is probably a partial no trade clause or maybe if he is dealt some type of bonus kicks in. It might be a minor issue but shouldn't completely stand in their way of trading him, if that is what they are determined to do.

by **smitty** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:56:09

Wheels Tupay wrote:
smitty wrote:
ek wrote:missanelli on werth...

said he was at the park last night. said that some scouts are telling their teams that members of the phils organization are saying there is no way they are letting werth go. even going as far as saying they would trade ibanez and eat half his salary to keep werth

There's an article at BP addressing this -- it mentioned Ibanez has a no trade thing in his contract.

Smitty do you know the specifics of it? It is probably a partial no trade clause or maybe if he is dealt some type of bonus kicks in. It might be a minor issue but shouldn't completely stand in their way of trading him, if that is what they are determined to do.

I'm not a contract guy. Here's what the authors at BP wrote:

His corner outfield colleague, Ibanez, while a major cause of the Phillies winning the National League East for the third straight year in 2009, represents a potential financial deterrent to re-signing Werth. Ibanez signed a three-year deal worth $31.5 million in the 2009-10 offseason, and 2011 marks the final year of that contract. On top of that, Ibanez was given a no-trade clause in his contract, making any scenario in which the Phillies ship him elsewhere to save money for Werth more difficult. Ibanez might require an extra stipend to waive his clause should the Phillies find a suitor willing to absorb some of his contract.

Cot's says he has no trade protection whatever that is.

by **joe table** » Tue May 18, 2010 16:58:46

Just says "no trade protection" for Ibanez on Cot's. I think that implies full no-trade, since Howard's is labeled as "limited no trade clause"

Beyond that, the fact that a younger, fairly similar player (06-08 especially, Raul's 09 was far better than Dye's but Raul has never had another year in his career like that one) in Jermaine Dye can't get 2mm dollars right now doesn't imply that Raul would have much of a trade market

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