Wheels Tupay wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:
He's fine for a 5th starter.
I predict that by mid-June he ERA will be above 6 and everyone will hate him again.

These two comments counter each other. An era above 6 is not good even for a number 5.

He won't end up at 6. Somehow, he'll run of a stretch where he has a 2 ERA for six starts and at the end of the season you'll look up and he'll have a 14-9 record, 190 IP, and 4.89 ERA. I don't know how he does it. He just does.

But we'll all hate him when he goes 2 innings, 8 ER against the Blue Jays and 4 IP, 7 ER against the Indians, and his ERA is 6.19 at that point.

Phan In Phlorida wrote:

phatj wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:Moyer is 5-2. That's amazing. I know W-L isn't a great way to measure a pitcher's performance, but still.

He's on pace for 20+ wins.

Soren wrote:Jamie Moyer is getting 6 runs a game in support.

Well, sure. The players are all calm and content when Moyer takes the hill because of the pre-game routine of kicking back whilst he shares some Werther's Originals with them.

Had to make this

I think it's incorrect to conclude that Ibanez' contract is what stands in the way of a Werth deal. Werth's deal can be structured in a way where both can be kept in 2011 if they want.

Ibanez is untradeable and i can't imagine how anyone could conclude otherwise.

Some numbers for the Dye- Ibanez claim:

Dye: 36 years old for the 2010 season

2005: 579 PAs, .361 wOBA, 118 OPS+, -4.1 UZR, +2 Def. runs saved
2006: 611 PAs, .417 wOBA, 151 OPS+, -21.0 UZR, -6 DRS
2007: 561 PAs, .343 wOBA, 105 OPS+, -23.6 UZR, -24 DRS
2008: 645 PAs, .376 wOBA, 126 OPS+, -18.9 UZR, -9 DRS
2009: 574 PAs, .344 wOBA, 103 OPS+, -21.6 UZR, -13 DRS

Ibanez: 38 years old for the 2010 season

2005: 690 PAs, .344 wOBA, 115 OPS+, -.8 UZR, 9 DRS
2006: 699 PAs, .359 wOBA, 125 OPS+, -.1 UZR, 10 DRS
2007: 636 PAs, .356 wOBA, 121 OPS+, -19.5 UZR, -12 DRS
2008: 707 PAs, .356 wOBA, 123 OPS+, -7.8 UZR, -6 DRS
2009: 565 PAs, .379 wOBA, 131 OPS+, 3.1 UZR, 1 DRS

Ibanez average offensive year (scaled for PAs): .358 wOBA, 123 OPS+
Ibanez average defensive year: -5.02 UZR, .4 DRS

Dye average offensive year (scaled for PAs): .369 wOBA, 121 OPS+
Dye average defensive year: -17.8 UZR, -10 DRS

Ibanez has been the better player definitely, mostly because his defense. Each had one uncharacteristically big offensive year during the period, but overall offensively they have been about a wash.

However, is the difference between the two guys really that big that if Dye can't get 2-3mm over one year, some team will be willing to give up at least some prospect for Ibanez, two years older, with about 20mm left on his contract?

I think Raul can still have a solid, productive year here. I just think the notion that his has any trade value other than in a bad contract swap is incorrect

WheelsFellOff wrote:

Phan In Phlorida wrote:

phatj wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:Moyer is 5-2. That's amazing. I know W-L isn't a great way to measure a pitcher's performance, but still.

He's on pace for 20+ wins.

Soren wrote:Jamie Moyer is getting 6 runs a game in support.

Well, sure. The players are all calm and content when Moyer takes the hill because of the pre-game routine of kicking back whilst he shares some Werther's Originals with them.

Had to make this

It's delightfully creepy

Looks like Kuato.

I love Werth, but at some point you have to let people go and let younger players step in or your roster is going to be absurdly old and expensive. Outfield seems about the only place at this time we can afford to do it. Maybe Werth's not the guy to start with, but every single contract we've seen has been for at least one year more than we'd like at too high a price. This seems to be what it takes to get things done and often it's worth it for the immediate effect (I would put Ibanez' contract in this category and maybe Polanco's), but you clearly have to avoid it when you can.

I'd still love to have Werth on a three year deal, but that's not going to happen.

It would have been creepier if I had used this pic for the headswap

smitty wrote:What I think is kinda cool though, is when the Phils overpay for someone they still get some value out of him and they don't overpay by THAT much.

WheelsFellOff wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

phatj wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:Moyer is 5-2. That's amazing. I know W-L isn't a great way to measure a pitcher's performance, but still.

He's on pace for 20+ wins.

More impressive is his 1.103 WHIP and his 2.88 K/BB ratio, the latter of which is good for third best in his career if his season ends today. My dream of a return of Pedro is fading away...

I wonder if Pedro would like to try his hand at closing?

Everyone knows how much I love Pedro, but unless and until Contreras does something to lose that job, it's his.

I guess I will have to wait for Kendrick to go back to sucking to get the Pedro ball rolling again. Kendrick's had like two or three decent starts in a row, but it won't last...

Kendrick sucked a little yesterday. A better team probably would have lit him up.

ALERT ARTHUR RHODES:

The latest wave of Apple technology has entered the Phillies' clubhouse. Catcher Brian Schneider, outfielder Ben Francisco, and infielder Greg Dobbs all have iPads and constantly are using them in the clubhouse before games.

"It's really cool," Dobbs said.

All they do is gamble and eat ice cream.

mozartpc27 wrote:

smitty wrote:What I think is kinda cool though, is when the Phils overpay for someone they still get some value out of him and they don't overpay by THAT much.

Yeah. I was going to mention this guy but I forgot -- still trying to erase that memory.

Anyways, that signing was a while ago and they seem to maybe have learned something. Although he was only inked for three years and they dumped him after two so is wasn't as bad as some of the guys I mentioned.

It's funny how teams see a guy and think they can fix him or something. Sometimes it works. I was just looking at Ryan Dempster from the other thread, for example. He was goddawful before the Cubs rescued his career somehow.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ?cid=68783



edit: I guess I should point out that is "pitcher abuse points". The site layout/navigation for BP is pretty bad.

Category 5 must be when your arm falls off while throwing a pitch

bleh wrote:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php_cid=68783



edit: I guess I should point out that is "pitcher abuse points". The site layout/navigation for BP is pretty bad.

Looks like he's been at or near the top the last few years

Yeah, but he's also never had to pitch in the postseason any of those years.