cshort wrote:Signs seem to point to a mutual admiration between Halladay and the Phillies

Prolly because the Phils posted his bail when he shot out Ricciardi's porch lights on August 1.

I'm feeling pretty confident that Halladay has told the Jays that the Phillies are the only team he's willing to go to. When you deal with Rube, it's not going to end well. Dude is the tits.

VFB wrote:Reckling has nothing on Drabek. right?

Here's Goldstein's take from BP:

Year in Review: Last year's breakout player reached Double-A as a teenager and more than held his own.
The Good: It's rare to find a pitcher so young with two plus secondary offerings. Reckling's fastball has average velocity, but it plays up due to the pitch's sinking action. Both his power breaking ball and highly advanced changeup project as true big-league out pitches. He's Ya fantastic athlete for his size, and he fields his position well.
The Bad: Reckling's command can completely abandon him at times, due to a combination of a complicated delivery and his inability to control the extreme break on his pitches. With his velocity, some wonder if he'll be forced to pitch backwards as he moves up the ladder

Young but doesn't seem to be as good as Drabek. Probably not all that close.

cshort wrote:There is a 4th scenario, which is #3, but the Phillies sign Halladay as a FA. It's possible that Halladay will only sign an extension now with the Phillies. Signs seem to point to a mutual admiration between Halladay and the Phillies, so why would he tie himself up?

Maybe Halladay won't sign an extension elsewhere. That could be, but there's no way to know for certain. So you're taking a big risk.

But why take that risk?

In both scenario 2 and the one you posit, you have only one of Lee or Halladay in 2010 (Halladay in scenario 2, Lee in your scenario). But in your scenario, there is no certainty of having either in 2011 and beyond, while in scenario 2 you're certain of having Halladay after 2010.

IMO, there's no good reason to take that risk. Take Halladay for 2010 and beyond, rather than Lee for 2010 and potentially neither beyond that.

Scenario 3 doesn't really make sense to me. Why would they not try to sign Lee to an extension if they don't trade for Halladay?

It's not that they don't try to sign him, it's that he doesn't sign in Philly for monetary or other reasons.

Lee could be traded FOR Halladay per Ken Rosenthal...

WTF

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009 ... _hall.html

too bad that was tulane kenrosenthal that wrote that

threecount wrote:Lee could be traded FOR Halladay per Ken Rosenthal...

WTF

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009 ... _hall.html

Hey, did you guys hear we signed Placido Polanco?

If the cost is Lee, I say no deal and then just try and sign Halladay in the offseason.

Mission: Halladay *and* Lee for this year. World Series or bust.

Think about it. It does make sense from Rube's standpoint.

The goal, clearly, is to lock-up an ace #1 pitcher. He met with Lee's agent this week. If the vibe is that he can't get something reasonable done, why not consider moving him to a team like the Dodgers or Seattle for perhaps a bench bat or bullpen arm and prospects. Then wrap up a deal for Halladay.

Lee is a guy I'm not trying to trade at all. But if signing Lee to an extension seems like a long-shot, this is quality, outside-the-box thinking from Rube. Ok, I can't sign this ace, I'll go ahead and get this guy knowing that I can probably sign him since he wants out of Canada so bad.

I'm not liking the sound of this.

I've now convinced myself 100% that Halladay will be a Phillies and that RAJ will do anything and everything necessary to make it so.

Why?

If he doesn't and Lee and Blanton walk after this season (Remember: The Phils aren't known for even being in the discussion for big FA starters), the Phils' starting rotation going into next off-season will be:

Hamels
Happ
Drabek?
?
?

Obviously, he'll have money to spend. But the last thing the Phils are likely to do is to go into the FA SP market and spend big bucks for more than 3 years. Getting Halladay -- one of the best pitchers in the game and who also apparently would welcome the opportunity to extend his contract with the Phils -- is an opportunity too good to pass up. Then the Phils go into the off-season with the following rotation:

Halladay
Hamels
Drabek?
?
?

Still question marks, no doubt, but a whole lot better than Hamels, Happ, Drabek, ?, ?.

I've also totally convinced myself that the PTB have ordered Rube to shed at least some payroll to get Halladay; that they haven't just given him the OK to go to $155MM+ this year.

So, where can Rube shed salary? I suppose you could make an argument for Ibanez or Werth, but I don't see Rube breaking up the middle of his order, especially Werth who is currently the only RH power threat. I think there are only 3 reasonable candidates:

Victorino ($5MM est.)
Blanton ($7MM est.)
Lee ($9MM)

I'm sure RAJ would rather trade Victorino and/or Blanton. Taylor can step in for Victorino (with Werth moving to CF). If money weren't a consideration, you'd like to keep Blanton but, like it or not, money is a consideration.

But, if he has to, I'd bet RAJ would trade Lee if it meant getting Halladay if, for no other reason, he's not going to go into next off-season with only Hamels and Happ as his only two established starters.

We all (myself included) want to see to see Halladay and Lee on the Phils' staff together. It's really exciting stuff. Hopefully RAJ can make something happen with Victorino and/or Blanton. But, if there's no other alternative, I'm fully behind trading Lee if it's the only way Halladay comes to Philly and signs an extension.

There's also the possibility that RAJ, by trading Lee, can make the best out of a sub-optimal situation. All other things being equal, I'm sure the Jays would rather not trade Halladay within the division and have him pitching against them several times a year. That's really bad PR.

But the Phils have no such hesitation trading with the AL East. And, according to reports, the Jays want Yanks' prospect Jesus Montero (a catcher). Suppose RAJ offered Lee to the Yanks for Montero and Joba. That's a pretty heavy price for the Yanks to pay. But to get Lee for 2010 at $9MM, plus probably give him a top-of-market extension (which the Phils probably won't) and have a rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Burnett, Pettitte, Plus, might be too tempting for them to turn down.

The Phils, in turn, could trade Montero, Happ and, say, Gose and one more minor leaguer to the Jays for Halladay (and maybe Carlson). RAJ once again keeps the Phils top 3 prospects and has a 2010 rotation of:

Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Joba
Moyer/Kendrick

Is that better/as exciting than Halladay, Lee, Hamels, +, +? Of course not -- for 2010. But for 2011, you start the off-season with:

Halladay
Hamels
Joba
Drabek
?

which is a whole lot better than Hamels, Happ, Drabek, ?, ?.

Again, I hope RAJ works his magic to have both Halladay and Lee for 2010. But I don't see any way he does it without off-loading at least some payroll. Hopefully that's Victorino and/or Blanton. But if it has to be Lee in order to make sure the rotation isn't decimated going into 2011, I'd try to make the best of it and do the deal.

It makes zero sense for the Phillies to trade Lee to acquire Halladay. That should be a last-ditch effort, one that clearly won't need to make with the Jays in the position they're in. Lee-for-Halladay is a lateral move with significant risk and it will also mean that the Phillies still have to unload Blanton or Victorino and still have to give up prospects (some or all acquired via trading Lee).

Essentially, it looks like this:

- Phillies trade Lee, a 6-7.5 win pitcher for prospects
- Phillies send prospects to Toronto for Halladay, a 6-7.5 win pitcher
- Phillies get the chance to re-sign Halladay long-term, or recoup a late first-round draft pick and a sandwich pick if he signs elsewhere via free agency
- Phillies take on up to ~$8 million in salary for 2010
- To take on that salary, Phillies trade Blanton or Victorino

Phillies go from: Lee, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Moyer to Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Moyer, ??? (Kendrick?)

threecount wrote:Lee could be traded FOR Halladay per Ken Rosenthal...

WTF

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009 ... _hall.html

uh

Ill keep this simple.

The difference between Lee and Halladay is minimal. Maybe 1 win. Giving up 3-4 prospects for 1 win is dumb. Especially because you're then not going to get a real "discount" unless Halladay takes less than the AAV he made on his current deal, which won't happen. The Yankees will offer him a ton of money. Even if thats not his "ideal" team, he won't turn down a 5/110 deal to sign a 4/60 deal with the Phillies.

2010 is the year to go for it. Make the payroll exception, go over by 10M, and then cut the budget back to $135M the next two years. There are a number of good pitchers on the market next winter

Halladay
Lee
Beckett
Webb
Vazquez

and then lower tier guys

Blanton
De La Rosa

With 5 elite pitchers out there, teams are going to be spending, but its going to be the same cast of characters. We'll be able to end up with 1 of those 5 guys at a deal that won't kill us. And if we can't grab one of the 5, then we take 4 draft picks and move on. Guys can be acquired via trade.

The Phillies will be ok in 2011 even if Werth walks, looking at the rest of the core. They can make it work on a $135M payroll in 2011 and in 2012. The team might not be quite as good, but you have to go for it in 2010. You have to.

No lateral moves.

CrashburnAlley wrote:It makes zero sense for the Phillies to trade Lee to acquire Halladay. That should be a last-ditch effort, one that clearly won't need to make with the Jays in the position they're in. Lee-for-Halladay is a lateral move with significant risk and it will also mean that the Phillies still have to unload Blanton or Victorino and still have to give up prospects (some or all acquired via trading Lee).

Essentially, it looks like this:

- Phillies trade Lee, a 6-7.5 win pitcher for prospects
- Phillies send prospects to Toronto for Halladay, a 6-7.5 win pitcher
- Phillies get the chance to re-sign Halladay long-term, or recoup a late first-round draft pick and a sandwich pick if he signs elsewhere via free agency
- Phillies take on up to ~$8 million in salary for 2010
- To take on that salary, Phillies trade Blanton or Victorino

Phillies go from: Lee, Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Moyer to Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Moyer, ??? (Kendrick?)

"Zero sense?"

If it comes to that, you're OK with having neither in 2011 and starting next off-season with a rotation of Hamels, Happ & Drabek?

"That should be a last-ditch effort, one that clearly won't need to make with the Jays in the position they're in."

They don't do it to please the Jays. They do it if there's no other way to shave some payroll -- unless you think the PTB are going to OK a $155MM+ payroll this year.

It is a last-ditch effort but, as such, it makes a lot of sense and is better than the alternative. A lateral move for 2010 with a manifestly better 2011 and beyond makes a whole lot of sense IMO.

Again, hopefully trading Vic and/or Blanton to free up salary gets 'er done. But, if all else fails, it would be very short-sighted not to, in effect, swap Lee for Halladay if the former is going to leave after this season while the latter would sign an extension.

Good points.

I haven't been reading any of this Lee Halladay stuff in here today because it strikes me as stupid and I don't want to think about it. If it happens, I'll just let it surprise me.

I know you all wanted to know what I was thinking.

The Phillies need an ace in their starting rotation in 2011. How Rube goes about doing that is up to him. But his potential "outside the box" thinking in this situation is intriguing at the very least.