The OLD Halladay/Smug thread is HERE

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 02:07:45

Monkeyboy wrote:That's my biggest concern with trading both Happ and Blanton. I've seen way too many Phillies teams go under because of a few injuries to the starting pitching. The team was pretty well protected the past two years because of the depth on the staff and an unusual string of good health. But trade those two and we'll be right on the edge if something goes wrong. Halladay, as much as I love him, has a ton of mileage on that arm and Hamels is a sore elbow away from a long DL stint. If everything goes well, it's great, but it's risky.

I really think we need to find a way to keep Happ or Blanton. Since Happ costs so little, it makes sense for it to be him. Maybe the guy we get back for Blanton can be the extra piece for Halladay.

Here's the thing. If our starting staff come September was Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Moyer-Kendrick, and the first replacement arm was Carpenter and the second was you and the third was me we'd win 94 games in 2010.

by **FTN** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 02:12:16

mozartpc27 wrote:Not sure the Blue Jays would willingly go from Gose + Brown + Happ + Drabek to Gose + Brown + Happ + one of Pettibone, Worley, Cisco, Stutes, or Flande + giving the Phillies $5M. If anything, they'd probably demand one of those players, minimally, if they give up Drabek.

The whole point of this to them is salary relief + some prospects. Can't imagine they would ever agree to pay anything. The fans in Toronto would have a conniption if the Blue Jays were paying Halladay to pitch in Philadelphia (or anywhere else).

Its not just salary relief. They know that hes not coming back. So they want to get the most talent they can for him. I read an article where they said they'd be willing to kick in money for a deal if it meant them getting back more talent.

Here's the thing. Right now Halladay's list is 4 teams. He knows that he has Toronto over the barrel, even if he is a good guy and isn't looking to cause a problem. He's said that once he reports for Spring Training, he's done thinking about a trade, and he said he doesn't want to approve a deal in season. All he has to do is pick up the phone and say "Its Philly or nowhere" and we get him for whatever we're willing to give up. The Jays other choice is the two draft picks. I don't think their fanbase would be receptive to two draft picks.

So, the offers I listed above might represent the high side, because right now he hasn't eliminated the Yanks, Sox or Angels. But he could, at any point. And Im sure the Jays know that.

by **JFLNYC** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 02:44:48

by **FTN** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 02:49:26

And honestly, I much prefer Halladay to Lee long term. Halladay strikes me as the type who is going to be a reliable, 200+ inning per year guy into his late 30's. He throws a ton of cutters, he gets guys to beat the ball into the ground. He's a workhorse, I'm not worried about him falling off the cliff as much as Cliff. Get it? lolol

by **JFLNYC** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 02:51:10

Halladay 2010-2015 > Lee 2010.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 02:57:44

Ken Rosenthal is certainly patting himself on the back tonight.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 03:12:23

jerseyhoya wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:That's my biggest concern with trading both Happ and Blanton. I've seen way too many Phillies teams go under because of a few injuries to the starting pitching. The team was pretty well protected the past two years because of the depth on the staff and an unusual string of good health. But trade those two and we'll be right on the edge if something goes wrong. Halladay, as much as I love him, has a ton of mileage on that arm and Hamels is a sore elbow away from a long DL stint. If everything goes well, it's great, but it's risky.

I really think we need to find a way to keep Happ or Blanton. Since Happ costs so little, it makes sense for it to be him. Maybe the guy we get back for Blanton can be the extra piece for Halladay.

Here's the thing. If our starting staff come September was Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Moyer-Kendrick, and the first replacement arm was Carpenter and the second was you and the third was me we'd win 94 games in 2010.

Well I don't agree with that at all if the guys we're replacing are Hamels and Halladay. All I'm saying is that we couldn't afford for one of them to go down for long without running into trouble. I think people underestimate how much we've been helped the past two years by being able to run guys out there start after start without having to dip into the farm very often. The offense can cover up a lot, but if Hamels goes down for the season, we'll be running some pretty mediocre starters out there 3 out of 5 days. If the pen steps up, they might get through it, but I think the Braves are going to be more trouble than they were last year.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 03:16:05

Tbh I meant to say April there, not September.

September makes your depth complaint less relevant. I was trying to say give me three good (and by good I mean transcendently awesome) pitchers to start the year and then find the Rodrigo Lopez's of 2010 to be our4th and 5th starters. I don't give a shit. We gon hit, and we gon win most of the time when the big three are going.

Bring me Roy! Don't take away Cliff!

Useless usage of the exclamation point!

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 03:20:52

Monkeyboy wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:That's my biggest concern with trading both Happ and Blanton. I've seen way too many Phillies teams go under because of a few injuries to the starting pitching. The team was pretty well protected the past two years because of the depth on the staff and an unusual string of good health. But trade those two and we'll be right on the edge if something goes wrong. Halladay, as much as I love him, has a ton of mileage on that arm and Hamels is a sore elbow away from a long DL stint. If everything goes well, it's great, but it's risky.

I really think we need to find a way to keep Happ or Blanton. Since Happ costs so little, it makes sense for it to be him. Maybe the guy we get back for Blanton can be the extra piece for Halladay.

Here's the thing. If our starting staff come September was Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Moyer-Kendrick, and the first replacement arm was Carpenter and the second was you and the third was me we'd win 94 games in 2010.

Well I don't agree with that at all if the guys we're replacing are Hamels and Halladay. All I'm saying is that we couldn't afford for one of them to go down for long without running into trouble. I think people underestimate how much we've been helped the past two years by being able to run guys out there start after start without having to dip into the farm very often. The offense can cover up a lot, but if Hamels goes down for the season, we'll be running some pretty mediocre starters out there 3 out of 5 days. If the pen steps up, they might get through it, but I think the Braves are going to be more trouble than they were last year.

Hmm...no doubt we benefited from the NL East sucking balls last year, but everyone other than Fat Joe from our starting rotation to start the year fell out last year and we still walked away with the division, so I think you're underestimating how much we've been helped the past year by being awesome.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 03:24:46

Yeh, if the Big 3 sgtay healthy, the 4 and 5 spots are manned by the Kenrick.Moyer/Lopez's of the world, and the offense also stays healthy, I think 95 games is a good expectation. But if Halladay goes down and 3 of 5 spots are mediocre, then we could slide below 90 games. And the Braves will be right around 89-92, imho.

It's sacrificing depth for quality. It's risky, but it could turn out fine. If they make it to the playoffs and the big 3 guys are healthy, then it's definitely worth the gamble. I'm just not sure I would do it, unless we can hold onto Happ.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 03:26:41

jerseyhoya wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:That's my biggest concern with trading both Happ and Blanton. I've seen way too many Phillies teams go under because of a few injuries to the starting pitching. The team was pretty well protected the past two years because of the depth on the staff and an unusual string of good health. But trade those two and we'll be right on the edge if something goes wrong. Halladay, as much as I love him, has a ton of mileage on that arm and Hamels is a sore elbow away from a long DL stint. If everything goes well, it's great, but it's risky.

I really think we need to find a way to keep Happ or Blanton. Since Happ costs so little, it makes sense for it to be him. Maybe the guy we get back for Blanton can be the extra piece for Halladay.

Here's the thing. If our starting staff come September was Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Moyer-Kendrick, and the first replacement arm was Carpenter and the second was you and the third was me we'd win 94 games in 2010.

Well I don't agree with that at all if the guys we're replacing are Hamels and Halladay. All I'm saying is that we couldn't afford for one of them to go down for long without running into trouble. I think people underestimate how much we've been helped the past two years by being able to run guys out there start after start without having to dip into the farm very often. The offense can cover up a lot, but if Hamels goes down for the season, we'll be running some pretty mediocre starters out there 3 out of 5 days. If the pen steps up, they might get through it, but I think the Braves are going to be more trouble than they were last year.

Hmm...no doubt we benefited from the NL East sucking balls last year, but everyone other than Fat Joe from our starting rotation to start the year fell out last year and we still walked away with the division, so I think you're underestimating how much we've been helped the past year by being awesome.

Well, I certainly agree we're awesome. And there are some signs (like Rollins' and Lidge's horrible years) that we could be better than last year just by running the same team out there.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 03:37:03

Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, if the Big 3 sgtay healthy, the 4 and 5 spots are manned by the Kenrick.Moyer/Lopez's of the world, and the offense also stays healthy, I think 95 games is a good expectation. But if Halladay goes down and 3 of 5 spots are mediocre, then we could slide below 90 games. And the Braves will be right around 89-92, imho.

It's sacrificing depth for quality. It's risky, but it could turn out fine. If they make it to the playoffs and the big 3 guys are healthy, then it's definitely worth the gamble. I'm just not sure I would do it, unless we can hold onto Happ.

I think if the big three stay healthy, we win 100 games without batting an eye no matter who is the 4th and 5th starter.

I guess what I was disputing from your long form comment was that last year we enjoyed some great luck with our starting pitching health, considering Myers injury, and Hamels being hurt the first month of the season, and Chan Ho being, um, Chan Ho. And Moyer being Moyer.

To start the year we were going Myers-Hamels-Blanton-Moyer-Park. That's not exactly where things ended up, and despite Lidge leading the league in blown saves we still won 93 games last year.

If we get Roy without giving up Cliff, I could pitch left handed and right handed as our fourth and fifth starter, and so long as we started the year with Roy-Cliff-Cole, we'd be favored to win the East.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 04:15:50

You know, I completely forgot about Myers. Wishful thinking on my part.

Happ should have been there from the beginning, but point taken on Park.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 05:05:04

So if we need to unload salary, what do you think about the possibility of trading someone like Vic and not getting TOO much back for him, but the reason we don't get too much back for him is that the team has to take Moyer and his contract, too?

Take with grain of salt as I had been drinking but that sounds somewhat reasonable in my head.

by **cshort** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 09:16:32

I don't know why everyone keeps forgetting Drabek. Floppy's proposal let the Phillies keep him. So the first replacement arm isn't Carpenter, it's Drabek. And having him as a replacement sure beats the hell out of Rodrigo Lopez.

by **lethal** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 09:19:25

Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, if the Big 3 sgtay healthy, the 4 and 5 spots are manned by the Kenrick.Moyer/Lopez's of the world, and the offense also stays healthy, I think 95 games is a good expectation. But if Halladay goes down and 3 of 5 spots are mediocre, then we could slide below 90 games. And the Braves will be right around 89-92, imho.

It's sacrificing depth for quality. It's risky, but it could turn out fine. If they make it to the playoffs and the big 3 guys are healthy, then it's definitely worth the gamble. I'm just not sure I would do it, unless we can hold onto Happ.

How many games did the Yankees win last season with basically a 3 man rotation? Didn't they win over a hundred games and a world series with CC, AJ, Pettitte and junk?

by **cshort** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 09:23:06

FTN wrote:Here's the thing. Right now Halladay's list is 4 teams. He knows that he has Toronto over the barrel, even if he is a good guy and isn't looking to cause a problem. He's said that once he reports for Spring Training, he's done thinking about a trade, and he said he doesn't want to approve a deal in season. All he has to do is pick up the phone and say "Its Philly or nowhere" and we get him for whatever we're willing to give up. The Jays other choice is the two draft picks. I don't think their fanbase would be receptive to two draft picks.

So, the offers I listed above might represent the high side, because right now he hasn't eliminated the Yanks, Sox or Angels. But he could, at any point. And Im sure the Jays know that.

If they drag this out until February, you can guarantee it.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 16:20:02

Lots of writers are jumping on Rosenthal's BS speculation. Stupid idiot.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 18:06:57

trading for halladay is the stupidest move amaro could make ! i dont care how good he is, it will be the downfall of our current run. Obviously halladay is a beast but he's not worth all the collateral damage that will occur if they do make this move. This team is great now, and only needs a few minor things. blowing up this team for roy is pretty stupid !! Seriously think bout this, Roy comes in, most likely means, happ/blanton/ and other prospects gone 2010. then lee gone in 2011. So that makes up a rotation of halladay/hamels and who, drabeck? no thanks... and this is after possible losing victorino/werth....haha. bye bye phils... DONT DO THIS RUBEN.... Lee/hamels/happ/drabeck better solution long term....

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 20:26:57

lethal wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, if the Big 3 sgtay healthy, the 4 and 5 spots are manned by the Kenrick.Moyer/Lopez's of the world, and the offense also stays healthy, I think 95 games is a good expectation. But if Halladay goes down and 3 of 5 spots are mediocre, then we could slide below 90 games. And the Braves will be right around 89-92, imho.

It's sacrificing depth for quality. It's risky, but it could turn out fine. If they make it to the playoffs and the big 3 guys are healthy, then it's definitely worth the gamble. I'm just not sure I would do it, unless we can hold onto Happ.

How many games did the Yankees win last season with basically a 3 man rotation? Didn't they win over a hundred games and a world series with CC, AJ, Pettitte and junk?

tbf, their bullpen was significantly better and their offense was moderately better. Plus, my whole point, if you look back at my posts, was that we would be in trouble if one of our big 3 went down, which isn't that unlikely with Halladay's workload and Hamels' elbow. The Yanks stayed healthy. Give us their bullpen and a guarantee that our big 3 will stay as healthy as theirs did and I would say 100+ games and a very good chance at a wfc.

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The OLD Halladay/Smug thread is HERE