FTN wrote:I have an idea.

Lets keep Lee, trade Blanton, get Halladay, and try to win in 2010. Then lets extend Halladay, who loves us, and let Lee leave for 2 draft picks. Then lets worry about Werth after the parade, and worry about the rest of the team after that.

Amaro is a smug bastard. He'll figure it out. I want to win everything in 2010. And with the team the Yankees have built/are building, we're going to need the best rotation possible.

As far as we know, this was the original plan. I realize there are other factors to consider such as money, long term contracts, etc., but I'm not in favor of compromising 2010 for the unknown of 2012 and beyond.

FTN wrote:I have an idea.

Lets keep Lee, trade Blanton, get Halladay, and try to win in 2010. Then lets extend Halladay, who loves us, and let Lee leave for 2 draft picks. Then lets worry about Werth after the parade, and worry about the rest of the team after that.

Amaro is a smug bastard. He'll figure it out. I want to win everything in 2010. And with the team the Yankees have built/are building, we're going to need the best rotation possible.

I like the idea - just tell me who the 4th & 5th starters are in this scenario.

Doll Is Mine wrote:Frankly, I'd much rather have Lee in his prime in 2010 along with a core in their prime than an aging Halladay in 2012 and beyond on a team without Howard, Rollins, Hamels, Ibanez, and Werth potentially.

This. Every year beyond 2010 is more of a question as our key hitters start to age out of their primes. I think there's enough talent in the system and between the ears of His Smugness to keep the team competitive, but they won't be prohibitive favorites even in the division, much less the league, as they could/should be next year.

Go all out to win next year, then start reloading.

If I had to choose after 2010 between

Lee; 5/110
Halladay; 4/80

I'd choose Halladay every single time. And its not even close.

So the question comes down to "what can you get for Cliff Lee" if the whole three team deal does happen. If you can do the trade while only giving up Taylor from our system, then it has merit, even though I'd prefer Halladay to just stick it to Toronto and tell them he'll only come to Philly.

FTN wrote:If I had to choose after 2010 between

Lee; 5/110
Halladay; 4/80

I'd choose Halladay every single time. And its not even close.

So the question comes down to "what can you get for Cliff Lee" if the whole three team deal does happen. If you can do the trade while only giving up Taylor from our system, then it has merit, even though I'd prefer Halladay to just stick it to Toronto and tell them he'll only come to Philly.

I'm still failing to see how giving up Lee and Taylor benefits the Phillies, both in 2010 or the future.

IMO, the only benefit of trading Lee for Halladay would be to avoid trading Taylor or Brown.

The problem for the Phillies is that they have no leverage on a contract with Halladay if they get a window to negotiate. If they pulled a Halladay trade off in principle and then tried to lowball him (to think of 4-80 as a lowball is pretty crazy, but it would be for Roy) and have it blow up in their faces, how would they look?

See Santana with the Mets. They had to pay Johan way way above market (at the time) and a 6th year once the trade was agreed upon. They got no "hometown/he chose us" discount, even after Santana had chosen them, waived his no-trade and they'd won the sweepstakes

And would it kill Roy to spend one last year in Toronto and then make his 100 mil in 2011? I don't think so, not enough to get bent over by the Phils

There is no 4-80 for Roy IMO, which makes the above comparison of extensions a false choice.

joe table wrote:There is no 4-80 for Roy IMO, which makes the above comparison of extensions a false choice.

Absolutely. It's all speculation at this point.

Maybe, maybe not.

I just know I much prefer having Halladay for the long haul than Lee. I'd prefer we had both for 2010 and then worry about 2011 after that.

joe you fail to account for the opportunity cost of not Hulk-fisting it with Wertz on a parade float

joe table wrote:The problem for the Phillies is that they have no leverage on a contract with Halladay if they get a window to negotiate. If they pulled a Halladay trade off in principle and then tried to lowball him (to think of 4-80 as a lowball is pretty crazy, but it would be for Roy) and have it blow up in their faces, how would they look?

See Santana with the Mets. They had to pay Johan way way above market (at the time) and a 6th year once the trade was agreed upon. They got no "hometown/he chose us" discount, even after Santana had chosen them, waived his no-trade and they'd won the sweepstakes

And would it kill Roy to spend one last year in Toronto and then make his 100 mil in 2011? I don't think so, not enough to get bent over by the Phils

There is no 4-80 for Roy IMO, which makes the above comparison of extensions a false choice.

They don't have to do the trade if he wants 5/110+ or something like that. I have no doubt that Smuggy would tell him to fuck himself.

Trent Steele wrote:

joe table wrote:The problem for the Phillies is that they have no leverage on a contract with Halladay if they get a window to negotiate. If they pulled a Halladay trade off in principle and then tried to lowball him (to think of 4-80 as a lowball is pretty crazy, but it would be for Roy) and have it blow up in their faces, how would they look?

See Santana with the Mets. They had to pay Johan way way above market (at the time) and a 6th year once the trade was agreed upon. They got no "hometown/he chose us" discount, even after Santana had chosen them, waived his no-trade and they'd won the sweepstakes

And would it kill Roy to spend one last year in Toronto and then make his 100 mil in 2011? I don't think so, not enough to get bent over by the Phils

There is no 4-80 for Roy IMO, which makes the above comparison of extensions a false choice.

They don't have to do the trade if he wants 5/110+ or something like that. I have no doubt that Smuggy would tell him to $#@! himself.

I don't think ownership would be too fond of having that happen, basically scapegoating them as the "cheap" bad guys in a failed deal....and I guess the Phils would probably get clearance to at least talk parameters of an extension with Halladay's camp before the deal went down. I don't think they'd go through with it and allow it to blow up if they knew the price was too high on the contract

Still my point is that I think it's completely unrealistic to entertain the idea that Halladay would be cheaper/easier to sign than Lee. Does Roy want to come here? Sure. Johan wanted to pitch for the Mets too, waived his NTC for them, and he didn't pass on the chance to use his favorable position to get a new top of the market contract. Just like the Phils probably wouldn't finalize a deal without knowing he's locked up, Roy won't waive his NTC to take just any offer from the Phils

Trent Steele wrote:They don't have to do the trade if he wants 5/110+ or something like that. I have no doubt that Smuggy would tell him to $#@! himself.

Right. I also don't believe Halladay is quite as mercenary about his impending free agency as is Lee. It's just an educated guess on my part, but I believe it for 2 reasons: (1) Halladay's had a really big deal before, Lee hasn't; and (2) Halladay has made it clear he has other considerations beyond money (e.g., wants to be on a winner, wants ST to be near his home).

I don't think there's going to be a huge difference between the next contracts they each sign. But I do believe Halladay would be a bit more accommodating.

Halladay is also older, much older than Santana and Sabathia were when they got paid. He's still arguably the best pitcher in the sport, he's going to command big bucks, but I dont think hes getting a 6 year deal from anyone.

And as dumb as it is to say, I don't think Halladay really wants to be a Yankee. I think if the Phillies offer him a 4/80 deal with a vesting option based on IP for a 5th year, then he'll sign. All of the reports have been about how much he loves the Phillies, how much he wants to be here. The Sox, Yankees and Angels are on his list because they are built to win now, and he'd rather go to one of those places than stay in Toronto for another year. But he hasn't professed a preference or love for any of those teams.

Hes not gonna take a 3/40 deal from the Phillies if the Yankees offer him 6/130. Obviously. But I think the Phillies have more advantages in this whole thing than people are letting on.

Halladay will get his money either way, but with Beckett and Lee almost certainly hitting the market next year, Halladay money (total contract wise) will be 3rd among FA SP.

Years, I can give you, maybe he won't get 6 at age 33 (for 2010) but he's not going to get a penny less than CC/Johans 23 AAV IMO. So maybe 4-100 with a vesting option (making sure he's healthy for a few years to reach it) for Roy is a good approximation of his price tag, vs 5-100 for a hypothetical Lee extension which I think he'd sign today (would put him comfortably over Burnett in AAV, but below the objectively more qualified precedents of CC/Johan).

All hypothetical still, I could be wrong but just thinking from the perspective of Halladay's representatives, that's the way I think they'd be seeing things (new top AAV deal), and I think they'd be incompetent not to get 100 mil in any deal that would go down. If the agent is any good he could use the 5 years given to 32 year old Burnett, 4 years given to 35 year old Lowe to get a guaranteed 5th year for Roy. I mean we are talking about arguably the most durable pitcher in the game today here.

I would presume that we could find 4th and 5th starters from a collection that include Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Kyle Drabek, Pedro Martinez, Mike Stutes, Chen Mieng Wang, Scott Olsen. Whatever.

SQUIRE

OMG!


Salisbury
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/landing_ ... feedID=704

Two baseball sources told CSNPhilly.com Monday that the team is actively talking about a contract extension with representatives for the 32-year-old righthander. It is likely that the Phillies would want to sign Halladay to an extension before they traded for him. Without an extension, Halladay would be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season.

dfdfdsfasfsddfgxfgds

oh and from same article:

One of the sources said that Halladay is likely to have a physical exam with Phillies' medical personal this week.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

although is it a personal physical?!