td11 wrote:the steagles talk in the sheehan thread reminds me-- edwin jackson having quite a year. is he for reals?
I meant to throw my 2 cents into this when you posted it, but forgot.
-He's throwing 3% more first pitch strikes than he did last season.
-xbabip is something like .264, babip is .252. a little lucky, but not bad.
-His BB/9 and K/9 figures coincide pretty well with the increase in first pitch strikes.
-Here's the outlier: he's giving up more flyballs than he ever has, yet his HR/FB is 5%, compared to 9.6% and 10.2% the previous two seasons. That's good for 10th in the league. Out of the top 10, only 2 guys have flyball rates over 40%, Edwin and Jair Jurrjens, and Edwin is outpacing Jair by 5% (47% to 42%..rounding up for both). Out of the top 10, 4 pitchers are under 30% FB's, with the other 4 in the 30% area (although Greinke is close to 40% himself).
I've only watched one or two starts of his, so I can't speak to his stuff or the situations he's been in, but he's over his head right now. His FIP is a run higher than his actual ERA at this point (2.24--3.28). The correction on the HR rate alone should just about cover that, but he's still made enough improvements in throwing strikes that it's probably safe to say that he's legit, although not as good as his ERA.
