Keith Law's mock:

01 NATIONALS = Strasburg
02 MARINERS = Dustin Ackley (UNC 1B/OF)
03 PADRES = Aaron Crow (Fort Worth Cats RHP (2008 Missouri, didn't sign with Nationals))
04 PIRATES = Bobby Borchering (FL HS 3B)
05 ORIOLES = Tanner Scheppers (St. Paul Saints RHP (2008 Fresno State, didn't sign with Pirates))
06 GIANTS = Tyler Matzek (CA HS LHP)
07 BRAVES = Zack Wheeler (GA HS RHP)
08 REDS = Grant Green (USC SS)
09 TIGERS = Jacob Turner (MO HS RHP)
10 NATIONALS (comp) = Kyle Gibson (Missouri RHP)
11 ROCKIES = Alex White (UNC RHP)
12 ROYALS = Wil Myers (NC HS C/3B)
13 ATHLETICS = Matt Hobgood (CA HS RHP)
14 RANGERS = Shelby Miller (TX HS RHP)
15 INDIANS = Mike Leake (Arizona State LHP)
16 DIAMONDBACKS = A.J. Pollock (Notre Dame OF)
17 DIAMONDBACKS (from LAD) = Tyler Skaggs (CA HS LHP)
18 MARLINS = Rex Brothers (Lipscomb LHP)
19 CARDINALS = Mike Minor (Vanderbilt LHP)
20 BLUE JAYS = Kyle Heckathorn (Kennesaw State RHP)
21 ASTROS = Chad James (OK HS RHP)
22 TWINS = Drew Storen (Stanford RHP)
23 WHITE SOX = Michael Trout (NJ HS OF)
24 ANGELS (from NYM) = Billy Bullock (Florida RHP)
25 ANGELS (from NYY) = Reymond Fuentes (PR HS OF)
26 BREWERS = Matt Davidson (CA HS 3B)
27 MARINERS (from PHI) = Eric Arnett (Indiana RHP)
28 RED SOX = Max Stassi (CA HS C)
29 YANKEES (comp) = Matthew Purke (TX HS LHP)
30 RAYS = Tommy Joseph (AZ HS C)
31 CUBS = Brett Jackson (California OF)
32 ROCKIES (from LAA) = Tim Wheeler (Sacramento State OF)

Law I would think has Minor rated pretty accurately. Why is he in everyone else's top 3? I don't get it.

Its more a matter of other teams thinking that the Padres would take Minor rather than thinking he would be worthy of going there.

Interesting that he has Tate and Heathcott out of the first round.

im working on my mock draft right now, hope to finish it tonight. teaser

Strasburg
Ackley
Crow
Leake
Green
Matzek
Wheeler
Miller

I think the disagreement between our two positions (and this is where game theory comes into play) is the probability each of us puts in returns becoming diminished because of rising prices caused by other teams deciding to disregard the slot recommendations in order to keep pace. I've got no clue where that tipping point is ($#@! Gladwell), but I think it's in any teams best interest to avoid contributing to a movement that could cause the system to get to that point. The degree of aggressiveness in breaking slot should correlate to how probable that scenario is.

The list of teams willing to go over slot has started to rise dramatically. The Phillies will end being bag holders if they aren't proactive

The Phillies have shown a willingness to go over slot past the 1st round the past few years. They're not the Tigers, but its a start.

Definitely a start. But this year, with a 1, will tell us more

FTN wrote:The list of teams willing to go over slot has started to rise dramatically. The Phillies will end being bag holders if they aren't proactive

Just because they haven't substantially broken slot in the 1st round? The question with them isn't if their willing to do it, last year proves that they will for the right guys, it's if they will in the 1st. I'm not sure what the answer is for that, but I'm not sure if there is cause for concern.

My mock draft

1 WAS Strasburg, Stephen RHP San Diego State
2 SEA Ackley, Dustin 1B/OF North Carolina
3 SDP Crow, Aaron RHP Fort Worth Cats (TX)
4 PIT Mike Leake RHP Arizona State
5 BAL Green, Grant SS USC
6 SFG Matzek, Tyler LHP Capistrano Valley HS (CA)
7 ATL Wheeler, Zach RHP East Paulding HS (GA)
8 CIN Miller, Shelby RHP Brownsville HS (TX)
9 DET Turner, Jacob RHP Westminster Christian Academy (MO)
10 WAS Jenkins, Chad RHP Kennesaw State
11 COL White, Alex RHP UNC
12 KCR Skaggs, Tyler LHP Santa Monica HS (CA)
13 OAK Storen, Drew RHP Stanford
14 TEX Purke, Matt LHP Klein HS (TX)
15 CLE Arnett, Erick RHP Indiana
16 ARI Brothers, Rex LHP Lipscomb
17 ARI Borchering, Bobby 3B Bishop Verot HS (FL)
18 FLA James, Chad LHP Yukon HS (OK)
19 STL Minor, Mike LHP Vanderbuilt
20 TOR Wheeler, Tim OF Sacramento State
21 HOU Trout, Mike OF Millville HS (NJ)
22 MIN Davidson, Matt 3B Yucaipa HS (CA)
23 CHW Paxton, James LHP Kentucky
24 LAA Hobgood, Matt RHP Norco HS (CA)
25 LAA Fuentes, Raymond OF Fernando Callego HS (P.R.)
26 MIL Sanchez, Tony C Boston College
27 SEA Wilson, Alex RHP Texas A&M
28 BOS Stassi, Max C Yuba City HS (CA)
29 NYY Pollock, AJ OF Notre Dame
30 TAM Mier, Jiovanni SS Bonita HS (CA)
31 CHC Bullock, Billy RHP Florida
32 COL Poythress, Rich 1B Georgia
33 SEA Baron, Stephen C Fergueson HS (FL)
34 COL Joseph, Tommy C Horizon HS (AZ)
35 ARI Pearl, Brian RHP Washington
36 LAD Gould, Garrett RHP Maize HS (KS)
37 TOR Heckathorn, Kyle RHP Kennesaw State
38 CHW Mitchell, Jared OF LSU
39 MIL Myers, Wil 3B/C Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC)
40 LAA Berglund, Bryan RHP Royal HS (CA)
41 ARI Boxberger, Brad RHP USC
42 LAA Williams, Everett OF McCallum HS (TX)
43 CIN Raley, Brooks LHP/OF Texas A&M
44 TEX Gibson, Kyle RHP Missouri
45 ARI Stoffell, Jason RHP Arizona
46 MIN Tootle, Ben RHP Jacksonville State
47 MIL Younginer, Madison RHP Mauldin HS (SC)
48 LAA Goodwin, Brian OF Rocky Mount HS (NC)
49 PIT Dyson, Sam RHP South Carolina

72 NYM Morgado, Bryan RHP Tennesse
75 PHI Malm, Jeff 1B Bishop Gorman HS (NV)

Good call with Shelby Miller in the top 10. Haven't seen another mock with him that high.

kruker wrote:Good call with Shelby Miller in the top 10. Haven't seen another mock with him that high.

yeah i dont get it. teams are talking about him as the 2nd best prep pitcher (thats signable, im excluding purke), yet have him at like 14. i dont think hes demands are that crazy. reds would be foolish to pass on him.

the biggest thing, and the one i touched on in my writeup, is grant green. prior to this spring, he was viewed as the consensus #2 in the country. now youve got people questioning his bat, his glove, and everything else, all because he started slow and then had nagging injuries. like hes the first guy to ever catch a small case of draftitis and have to play injured. he was awesome on the Cape with wood bats, and was awesome his first two years of college. Does one good not great year his junior year override that? someone will get a steal there, not necessarily in price, but in getting a guy they shouldnt have had a chance to draft.

im pretty sure pittsburgh won't take leake, even though they should.

Big Salisbury article on Scouting/Draft this morning. Not alot of names mentioned. RHP Ryan Buch gets mentioned and pictured. PG has him at #74 overall. BA has him at #90 overall.

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Pirates using McLouth money on draft pick signings; might take Crow #4

SF Chronicle article on Giants/Athletics draft situation

Who are the Nats looking at for #10?

FTN wrote:Cool Bobby Borchering article

Sounds like a baseball Marinovich.

but a little less creepy

then there is this

With rumors flying around about everything from bonuses to clubs looking for players that will sign for slot, I asked one NL club's V.P. of Scouting and Player Development his opinion on the draft.

"It's not a bad class," he said from the start. "But it's not one you want to stretch your budget for in terms of bonuses unless you're a club with money to spare. But those that aren't drafting high but have a pick in the right spot after the first 20 and maybe an extra pick, too, they're going to get two top 10 or 15 players, if they want to spend. This is what's wrong with the draft.

"The teams that need the help are drafting in the top 10, but since they can't afford the best players sometimes, they pass, sending that player to a 'have' team. It's why there is a lot of talk about trading draft picks.

"Come the end of the draft, many of the have-nots will have draft classes that pale in comparison to those that had fewer picks and drafted 20 slots lower. That's not the end-result we all want with the draft. Baseball has to look at that and the slotting system and make some changes."

Link

A lot less creepy.

Let me point out that although I like the pgcrosschecker.com website very much, with a day left before draft day, they are going to miss badly on getting all of the draft coverage they promised done prior to the draft. It wouldn't be a big deal except they are charging for it. They've done only about half the states and prospect reports for only the Top 50 (promised 250). Perhaps there will be a huge update tonight or tomorrow.

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The thing I don't like a PGC is that they seem to give preferential treatment to prospects that pay to attend their events, while guys who don't attend their events tend to get less coverage. Seems kind of crappy, in my opinion