2009 Draft Thread

by **FTN** » Tue Jun 02, 2009 20:41:30

I've moved Alex Wilson to the top of my wishlist.

Assuming the Phillies have properly assessed his bonus demands.

by **kruker** » Tue Jun 02, 2009 20:52:30

ReadingPhilly wrote:
kruker wrote:His final line:

27 HR, 64 SO's, 33 BB, .339/.447/.721

that brooks robinson comparison sold me

Offensively, his line reminds me of Mark Reynolds with more power. Reynolds with plus defense is a pretty damn good player.

Reynolds College Stats

by **lethal** » Tue Jun 02, 2009 21:34:03

kruker wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:
kruker wrote:His final line:

27 HR, 64 SO's, 33 BB, .339/.447/.721

that brooks robinson comparison sold me

Offensively, his line reminds me of Mark Reynolds with more power. Reynolds with plus defense is a pretty damn good player.

Reynolds College Stats

Mark Reynolds was a little like Jason Donald in college, not for pure numbers, but in terms of unfulfilled potential with declining performance each season. That 2004 Virginia team had a heck of an IF though. Reynolds at SS, Ryan Zimmerman at 3B and Joe Koshansky at 1B. 2 established MLB players and a guy on the cusp.

by **Squire** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:40:28

The poster on the Phillies.com website who purports to be a scout for another organization and who generally has good information says the Phillies are in on the following players:

Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS, (TX)
Steve Baron , C, Ferguson HS (FL)
Ryan Jackson, SS, UMiami (FL)
Chris Dominguez, 3B ULouisville (KY)
Justin Marks, LHP, ULouisville (KY)
Eric Smith, RHP, URhode Island (RI)
Michael Belfiore, LHP, Boston College Univeristy (MA)
Luke Bailey, C, Troup HS, (GA) (This is the one I want)

In order of preference I'd go with Bailey, then Heathcott, then Dominguez, then Baron.

SQUIRE

by **FTN** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:43:05

not a very promising group

unrelated note

17. Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri: Gibson is the biggest wild card in the first round right now. After a spring season in which he performed and showed consistent stuff, he plummeted to 83-87 on Saturday and said after the game he had some forearm soreness that the trainers had been working on. There's a chance he doesn't go in the first round if his medicals aren't spotless, but the D-backs did like him preinjury and they're generally a performance-oriented team in the draft. Arizona has been linked to everyone except for guys expected to seek well over slot for these picks.

by **Squire** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:46:37

FTN wrote::|

not a very promising group

unrelated note

17. Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri: Gibson is the biggest wild card in the first round right now. After a spring season in which he performed and showed consistent stuff, he plummeted to 83-87 on Saturday and said after the game he had some forearm soreness that the trainers had been working on. There's a chance he doesn't go in the first round if his medicals aren't spotless, but the D-backs did like him preinjury and they're generally a performance-oriented team in the draft. Arizona has been linked to everyone except for guys expected to seek well over slot for these picks.

If I'm Arizona I roll the dice with Gibson considering they have 5 of the first 50 picks.

SQUIRE

by **FTN** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:48:09

27. Seattle Mariners

A.J. Pollock, CF, Notre Dame: I've also heard Arnett here and just generally heard that they want a college pitcher with one of their first three picks, but there may not be a good fit available for them. They do like Stanford reliever Drew Storen as a potential starter.

They're also going to take Ferguson HS (Miami) catcher Stephen Baron with one of their picks after this one, probably at 33, in a pre-draft deal.

29. New York Yankees

Slade Heathcott, CF, Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas: Heathcott is one of the best tools players in this draft, but his uncertain family life (his father is in jail on drug charges and his mother is out of the picture for similar reasons) and expected price tag had him looking like a second- or third-rounder. Arizona, the Phillies and the Yankees have all scouted him heavily the last three weeks. The Yanks, meanwhile, have shown a lot of interest in Arnett, but I doubt he gets here.

- Keith Law

by **kruker** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:52:54

Wait...that's *his* off the field issue? I can see how that could raise some flags, but if Slade has never been in trouble himself (and I have no idea if he has) then what his parents have done shouldn't be of concern to any team.

Wasn't something similar held over Ankiel's head prior to the draft?

by **BigEd76** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:06:28

Mayo's 5/28 mock (first 20 picks)

01 NATIONALS = Strasburg
02 MARINERS = Dustin Ackley (UNC 1B/OF)
03 PADRES = Mike Minor (Vanderbilt LHP)
04 PIRATES = Aaron Crow (Fort Worth Cats (Indep.) RHP)
05 ORIOLES = Zack Wheeler (GA HS RHP)
06 GIANTS = Tyler Matzek (CA HS LHP)
07 BRAVES = Shelby Miller (TX HS RHP)
08 REDS = Tanner Scheppers (St. Paul Saints (Indep.) RHP)
09 TIGERS = Jacob Turner (MO HS RHP)
10 NATIONALS = Chad Jenkins (Kenesaw State RHP)
11 ROCKIES = Kyle Gibson (Missouri RHP)
12 ROYALS = Tony Sanchez (Boston College C)
13 ATHLETICS = Alex White (UNC RHP)
14 RANGERS = Matthew Purke (TX HS LHP)
15 INDIANS = Rex Brothers (Lipscomb LHP)
16 DIAMONDBACKS = Mike Leake (Arizona State LHP)
17 DIAMONDBACKS = Bobby Borchering (FL HS 3B)
18 MARLINS = Eric Arnett (Indiana RHP)
19 CARDINALS = Grant Green (USC SS)
20 BLUE JAYS = Drew Storen (Stanford RHP)

by **FTN** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:08:23

theres no way minor goes 3 overall. no way

by **FTN** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 14:26:09

Bill (Houston, Texas): Thoughts on Heathcotts character issues?

SportsNation Jim Callis : (2:24 PM ET ) I'm not going to get into specifics on those issues with Slade Heathcott, but they are very real concerns for some clubs. But at some point in the draft, his talent will stand out a lot more than those concerns, and that point could come at the end of the first round.

by **CFP** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 19:06:10

PGCrossChecker is organized piss-poorly at best.

by **FTN** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 19:10:00

my subscription lapsed in january. the design is terrible, but they have 1000 times more info than BA

by **CFP** » Thu Jun 04, 2009 19:13:46

FTN wrote:my subscription lapsed in january. the design is terrible, but they have 1000 times more info than BA

Pretty much. I am just incredibly disgusted with myself in that I definitely clicked on the Top 250 list and it actually came up for free, but now I can't find it without having a subscription.

by **BigEd76** » Fri Jun 05, 2009 11:25:14

Mayo's 6/4 mock (32 picks now):

01 NATIONALS = Strasburg
02 MARINERS = Dustin Ackley (UNC 1B/OF)
03 PADRES = Mike Minor (Vanderbilt LHP)
04 PIRATES = Aaron Crow (Fort Worth Cats (Indep.) RHP)
05 ORIOLES = Zack Wheeler (GA HS RHP)
06 GIANTS = Tyler Matzek (CA HS LHP)
07 BRAVES = Alex White (UNC RHP)
08 REDS = Mike Leake (Arizona State LHP)
09 TIGERS = Jacob Turner (MO HS RHP)
10 NATIONALS (comp) = Drew Storen (Stanford RHP)
11 ROCKIES = Rex Brothers (Lipscomb LHP)
12 ROYALS = Kyle Gibson (Missouri RHP)
13 ATHLETICS = Tanner Scheppers (St. Paul Saints (Indep.) RHP)
14 RANGERS = Shelby Miller (TX HS RHP)
15 INDIANS = Eric Arnett (Indiana RHP)
16 DIAMONDBACKS = A.J. Pollock (Notre Dame OF)
17 DIAMONDBACKS (from LAD) = Bobby Borchering (FL HS 3B)
18 MARLINS = Chad Jenkins (Kenesaw State RHP)
19 CARDINALS = Grant Green (USC SS)
20 BLUE JAYS = Everett Williams (TX HS OF)
21 ASTROS = Jared Mitchell (LSU OF)
22 TWINS = Matt Hobgood (CA HS RHP)
23 WHITE SOX = Michael Trout (NJ HS OF)
24 ANGELS (from NYM) = Garrett Gould (KS HS RHP)
25 ANGELS (from NYY) = Matthew Purke (TX HS LHP)
26 BREWERS = Matt Davidson (CA HS 3B)
27 MARINERS (from PHI) = Tony Sanchez (Boston College C)
28 RED SOX = Max Stassi (CA HS C)
29 YANKEES (comp) = Brett Jackson (California OF)
30 RAYS = Jiovanni Mier (CA HS SS)
31 CUBS = Tim Wheeler (Sacramento State OF)
32 ROCKIES (from LAA) = Slade Heathcott (TX HS OF)

by **FTN** » Fri Jun 05, 2009 13:08:56

by **jp_chips** » Fri Jun 05, 2009 15:22:50

little tidbit on the Phillies upcoming draft

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/ne ... p&c_id=phi

by **kruker** » Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:18:08

Joe Pos on trading draft picks

by **FTN** » Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:26:57

excerpt from the interview on Ross Ohlendorf's brilliance at ESPN on his 126 page thesis at Princeton

The 126-page thesis is brilliantly written and so complex, only a mathematician would be able to completely comprehend its meaning. So Ohlendorf broke down his thesis in layman's terms. For each player, he estimated how much less the team paid the player in each of his pre-free agency years than it would have paid a comparable free agent. He gathered salary data for both the players in the study and for all free agents for the relevant years. He used Win Shares (a statistical formula used by Bill James) to determine each player's value.

"Many of the players in the study did not make the major leagues,'' Ohlendorf said. "However, many of those who did produced tremendous returns for the teams who drafted them. When looked at as a group, the internal rate of return on all the draft picks in the study was 60 percent. This is an extremely high rate of return. It is saying that if you invest $1, it will grow to $1.60 after a year and $2.56 after two years, and so on … I believe the stock market has had a historical rate of about seven or eight percent, prior to the last year. So even though many of the investments did not work out, the upside on those that did was so great, signing the high picks to large bonuses appears to have been a very smart investment.''

Link

by **CalvinBall** » Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:30:51

I forgot we don't have a first round pick. That stinks.

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2009 Draft Thread