Hot Stove 2009 Discussion Here

by **JFLNYC** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 17:57:05

OTOH the Cards' package gives the Rox an OF with an OPS+ higher than Holliday's last year, another with a career OPS+ higher than Victorino's and a fair pitching prospect. Unless you're much higher than I on Carrasco & Golson (or just high in general), it beats the tar out of the Phils' offer. The equivalent Phils offer is arguably Werth, Vic & Kendrick.

by **Trent Steele** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:04:22

JFLNYC wrote:OTOH the Cards' package gives the Rox an OF with an OPS+ higher than Holliday's last year, another with a career OPS+ higher than Victorino's and a fair pitching prospect. Unless you're much higher than I on Carrasco & Golson (or just high in general), it beats the tar out of the Phils' offer. The equivalent Phils offer is arguably Werth, Vic & Kendrick.

I'll bet anything that there is not a GM in baseball that would trade Vic and Werth for Ludwick and Schumaker.

Ludwick had one of the greatest fluke seasons of all time and will be 31 midway through next season. Schumaker is a 4th OF without the range for CF or the bat for a corner spot.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:06:31

Trent Steele wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:OTOH the Cards' package gives the Rox an OF with an OPS+ higher than Holliday's last year, another with a career OPS+ higher than Victorino's and a fair pitching prospect. Unless you're much higher than I on Carrasco & Golson (or just high in general), it beats the tar out of the Phils' offer. The equivalent Phils offer is arguably Werth, Vic & Kendrick.

I'll bet anything that there is not a GM in baseball that would trade Vic and Werth for Ludwick and Schumaker.

Ludwick had one of the greatest fluke seasons of all time and will be 31 midway through next season. Schumaker is a 4th OF without the range for CF or the bat for a corner spot.

Pretty close to what I was going to say. Last year was the first time Schumaker had over 200 AB in a season. He doesn't have much power or speed. His peak is a 4th outfielder. I'd be wary of Ludwick's one good season as well.

by **smitty** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:16:29

ReadingPhilly wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:OTOH the Cards' package gives the Rox an OF with an OPS+ higher than Holliday's last year, another with a career OPS+ higher than Victorino's and a fair pitching prospect. Unless you're much higher than I on Carrasco & Golson (or just high in general), it beats the tar out of the Phils' offer. The equivalent Phils offer is arguably Werth, Vic & Kendrick.

I'll bet anything that there is not a GM in baseball that would trade Vic and Werth for Ludwick and Schumaker.

Ludwick had one of the greatest fluke seasons of all time and will be 31 midway through next season. Schumaker is a 4th OF without the range for CF or the bat for a corner spot.

Pretty close to what I was going to say. Last year was the first time Schumaker had over 200 AB in a season. He doesn't have much power or speed. His peak is a 4th outfielder. I'd be wary of Ludwick's one good season as well.

Yes. If Schumaker was really fast and a good defender in CF he'd be pretty valuable. But he isn't. Too much of his value is just his high BA.

Ludwick was once a pretty good prospect who had some serious injuries -- one was some kind of weird hip thing. I'm leery as well of a guy who has such a great year at the age of 29. But Werth is kinda similar in that regard. I'd rather have Werth though, although it may be closer than I first thought. Ludwick hit very well in the minors and is a decent defender.

I think the Boggs/Kendrick comparison might be fairly apt.

by **JFLNYC** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:20:16

Not the point. Even if Werth, Vic & KK > than the Cards' offer, it's a lot closer to it than KK, Carrasco & Golson.

Also, Ludwick had a career year but so did Werth. And which was Schumaker's fluke season? 2008 or 2007, when his OPS+ was higher?

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:21:39

JFLNYC wrote:Not the point. Even if Werth, Vic & KK > than the Cards' offer, it's a lot closer to it than KK, Carrasco & Golson.

Also, Ludwick had a career year but so did Werth. And which was Schumaker's fluke season? 2008 or 2007, when his OPS+ was higher?

He had 177 ABs in 2007

by **smitty** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:39:59

JFLNYC wrote:Not the point. Even if Werth, Vic & KK > than the Cards' offer, it's a lot closer to it than KK, Carrasco & Golson. Also, Ludwick had a career year but so did Werth. And which was Schumaker's fluke season? 2008 or 2007, when his OPS+ was higher?

Schumaker doesn't hit for enough power to be a corner OFer and doesn't play near good enough defense for CF. Victorino is a fine CFer who is really a better player than Schumaker in every way except for batting average. If Schumaker doesn't hit .300 he isn't helping you much.

I think your point though, is a good one. KK, Carrasco and Golson won't get Holliday and isn't really comparable to the Cards' alleged proposal. I'd take Vic, Werth and KK over the Cardinal trio but it's closer than it appears at first blush in that Ludwick looks pretty similar to Werth and KK is about like Boggs.

by **Trent Steele** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:45:01

JFLNYC wrote:Not the point. Even if Werth, Vic & KK > than the Cards' offer, it's a lot closer to it than KK, Carrasco & Golson.

Also, Ludwick had a career year but so did Werth. And which was Schumaker's fluke season? 2008 or 2007, when his OPS+ was higher?

Was KK, Carrasco & Golson really an offer or is that just BS speculation by someone on this board?

Of course that's not enough and it's worse than the Cardinals offer but there is an enormous gap between KK, Carrasco & Golson, and Werth, Vic, and KK. Ludwick, Shumaker, Boggs falls somewhere in between the two.

by **philliesphhan** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 18:49:20

JFLNYC wrote:Not the point. Even if Werth, Vic & KK > than the Cards' offer, it's a lot closer to it than KK, Carrasco & Golson.

Also, Ludwick had a career year but so did Werth. And which was Schumaker's fluke season? 2008 or 2007, when his OPS+ was higher?

Aside from maybe PA, what makes this year a career year for Werth? OPS+ was about the same last year. He had a 115 in 2004, too

by **CFP** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 15:04:25

Mike Jacobs doesn't think he needs to walk:

New Royals slugger Mike Jacobs reiterated on the Royals’ Web site in the last few days something he told us shortly after he was acquired — that he’d much rather swing away than take a walk, or so it seems.

Jacobs walked just 36 times last season and had a .299 on-base percentage.

“I don’t walk a lot,” Jacobs said. “I believe that when you’re in the middle of the lineup, you’re in the middle of the lineup for a reason — to drive in runs and put the ball in play and try to do damage.”

Walks? Who needs stinkin’ walks?

Hmmm. Wonder if Trey Hillman will agree next spring.

Jacobs did go on to say, “I think I can truly be a .275, .280 hitter in the big leagues. And if I’m hitting .280 or .270 in the big leagues, my on-base percentage is going to be around .320.”

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 16:26:08

It's one thing to be bad at walking. It's quite another to actively try to not do so. Luckily, he's on the Royals so no one will notice anyway.

by **VFB** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 16:31:33

by **smitty** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 16:57:08

CFP wrote:Mike Jacobs doesn't think he needs to walk:

New Royals slugger Mike Jacobs reiterated on the Royals’ Web site in the last few days something he told us shortly after he was acquired — that he’d much rather swing away than take a walk, or so it seems.

Jacobs walked just 36 times last season and had a .299 on-base percentage.

“I don’t walk a lot,” Jacobs said. “I believe that when you’re in the middle of the lineup, you’re in the middle of the lineup for a reason — to drive in runs and put the ball in play and try to do damage.”

Walks? Who needs stinkin’ walks?

Hmmm. Wonder if Trey Hillman will agree next spring.

Jacobs did go on to say, “I think I can truly be a .275, .280 hitter in the big leagues. And if I’m hitting .280 or .270 in the big leagues, my on-base percentage is going to be around .320.”

My guess is that Jacobs realizes he doesn't have the pitch recognition/patience at the plate skill. I think it is a skill and this guy is going to be 28 and he isn't going to develop it now even if he did have the ability to do so.

So rather than say -- well, I just ain't ever going to be any good at walking, he says if he hacks away, he can hit .280 and have at least a usable .320 OBP. Not great, but not worthless. He is addressing his weakness in the best way he knows how I think. If he just stood up there trying to walk, there's a very good chance he wouldn't hit worth a durn -- kinda like our own Pedro Feliz -- another guy who is pitch-recognition challenged.

Jacobs -- unlike Ryan Howard -- actually is a good candidate to be a platoon player. He has an .850 OPS vs righties in his career vs. .689 vs. the sinister throwers. Joe Sheehan and Keith Law take note.

by **kruker** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 17:14:27

Perrotto at BP is predicting that Pat ends up back in Philly.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 23:56:33

Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News talked to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who admitted the idea of a Matt Holliday trade is dead. The Rockies sought Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, and Mitchell Boggs from the Cards, and talks hit a wall.

The A's may still be in play, while Ringolsby says the Phillies did not discuss Holliday with the Rox during the GM meetings. The Phils are unwilling to part with Shane Victorino. Ringolsby adds that the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees have expressed interest in Holliday. Joe Strauss recently said the Mets are in pursuit, and Bill Ladson had him as a Nationals target.

by **dajafi** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 00:52:35

ReadingPhilly wrote:
Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News talked to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who admitted the idea of a Matt Holliday trade is dead. The Rockies sought Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, and Mitchell Boggs from the Cards, and talks hit a wall.

The A's may still be in play, while Ringolsby says the Phillies did not discuss Holliday with the Rox during the GM meetings. The Phils are unwilling to part with Shane Victorino. Ringolsby adds that the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees have expressed interest in Holliday. Joe Strauss recently said the Mets are in pursuit, and Bill Ladson had him as a Nationals target.

So far, so good...

Also, it's cute that the Nationals think they can get a guy like that. What exactly are they going to trade? A Bonifacio/Aaron Boone/Saul Rivera package?

by **Mountainphan** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 01:01:40

The Rockies are definitely going to trade Holliday before spring training, so O'Dowd has little to no leverage and everyone in baseball knows this.

It's just a matter of time before he pulls the trigger on the best deal out there and now that the Cardinals seem to be out of it, I have to think that the Phillies are in a good position. They shouldn't have to offer Vic or Werth either.

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 09:08:11

Mountainphan wrote:The Rockies are definitely going to trade Holliday before spring training, so O'Dowd has little to no leverage and everyone in baseball knows this.

It's just a matter of time before he pulls the trigger on the best deal out there and now that the Cardinals seem to be out of it, I have to think that the Phillies are in a good position. They shouldn't have to offer Vic or Werth either.

As the price comes down, more teams can get involved. Many teams can offer a better package than the Phils if they want.

by **BigB** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:31:44

Trent Steele wrote:
Mountainphan wrote:As the price comes down, more teams can get involved. Many teams can offer a better package than the Phils if they want.

IF THEY WANT TO is the key here. Unless you have a team that is only missing a leftfielder and is very close to a World Series contender I don't see that happening. Especially since Holliday is a Boras client which means he is one and done with his new team. I think Colorado will be lucky to get anything more than 1 top prospect one mid level and one filler in the deal. We can talk about the two draft picks all we want but remember its no guarantee that both will be number 1 picks, especially since half the picks are protected.

by **BrianOrange** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 15:18:28

Jon Heyman just on WFAN in New York and reports Holliday was traded to the A's. No word on who is going to Colorado.

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