Hot Stove 2009 Discussion Here

by **Trent Steele** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 11:35:32

thephan wrote:Jerry Hairston’s genes and the fact that he was not a total failure does not make him a qualified candidate for an everyday position in left field for the defending world series champion team. The Iron Pigs might benefit from his talent.

Although I am not of the school that Boras instantly means the player is leaving, or will not sign, I do expect Holliday to see what he is worth on the open market. Although he is attractive, I have a concern about a one year rental as the Rockies are unlikely to give him up cheaply, and I am not sure that the team would get a good investment, although his departure will get the Phils picks, and put them right back into this situation in one calendar year. Colorado can keep him and take the picks themselves, which is not necessarily foolish.

If there is a trade, I unrealistically hope that the team could sell Kendrick’s previous numbers in the bigs with the idea that he would benefit from a change of scenery. I am sure that the team will vote him a ring. Make him into the next Brad Lidge looking for a home. Only Ed Wade would be that dumb.

I saw that there is an expectation that we will not sign Burell, and that is with good reason, but I am interested in what, if anything, the team has done with Burrell. I have been on travel and have not been able to dig around too much. This thread is focused on Burrell being replaced (which is fine), but is there anything to know about what is happening with Burrell beyond he is looking for 3 or more years and that the team has inferred that he could do well by heading to the AL to be a DH (which I would question as I do not see him being a great DH)?

Burrell rejected a 2 year/$22 million offer

by **JFLNYC** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 11:38:16

phatj wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:I mean Jason Donald? Really? We can't give up Jason Donald? What are the odds that Jason Donald has a better peak than David Bell? 30%?

You think Jason Donald only has a 30% chance to post better than a 107 OPS+ at his peak? I'd say he has a better than 30% chance to do that in 2009 (assuming he plays in the majors). If the Phillies can find someone to take Pedro Feliz off their hands, I'd gladly pencil Donald into the lineup.

Donald's not a good fit for the Rockies anyway, so I doubt he'd be included. I'm guessing it would be Carrasco, Happ, either Taylor or Brown (unless O'Dowd somehow drinks the Golson Kool-Aid), plus maybe another "B" prospect. The deal doesn't get done without a quality OF or OF prospect. Creating a hole by trading Werth or Victorino is pointless, so it's going to have to be a good OF prospect.

Sometimes you have to give up a really good prospect to get a player of Holliday's quality. The Red Sox had to give up Hanley Ramirez (who may end up in the HOF) to get Beckett, but I doubt they regret it. I also think that, despite Boras, the Phils would open up their wallets and try to re-sign Holliday.

Looks like the Cards are the Phils' top competitors because they'd be willing to trade Ludwick.

by **thephan** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 11:41:45

I found the Burrell data on philly.com

Leftfielder Pat Burrell and starting pitcher Jamie Moyer filed for free agency.

The move is a formality. Amaro said Wednesday that the Phillies would begin negotiating shortly with Moyer and lefthanded reliever Scott Eyre. The Phillies don't seem inclined to rush into negotiations with Burrell.

by **traderdave** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 11:51:08

How much will Moyer cost?

by **Shore** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:08:17

traderdave wrote:How much will Moyer cost?

I believe we own Moyer.

He's 46 years old in 2 weeks, and he's a type A. No one else will sign him.

I hope we don't compete against ourselves, and give him 2 years.

by **Halfbearded Marauder** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:23:11

Shore wrote:
traderdave wrote:How much will Moyer cost?

I believe we own Moyer.

He's 46 years old in 2 weeks, and he's a type A. No one else will sign him.

I hope we don't compete against ourselves, and give him 2 years.

I can honestly see him getting an Eaton contract. If I were him, that's where I'd start my negotiations.

by **FTN** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:27:35

Last year, the Mets traded the following for the best pitcher in baseball, who was 1 year from free agency

Kevin Mulvey (#4 SP at best, likely a #5)
Carlos Gomez (Really fast, sucks at getting on base)
Phil Humber (fodder, middle reliever at best)
Deolis Guerra (overrated pitching prospect, always more hype than substance)

Santana was the best pitcher in baseball prior to being traded. Matt Holliday, while a great player, is not the best outfielder in baseball, and probably isn't even in the top 6-7. Pitching is more overpriced, so you'd expect to pay more than for a position player.

The Phillies should offer Kendrick, Carrasco, Golson, and Edgar Garcia. Thats 3 prospects and 1 major league pitcher. The Cardinals farm system is not great. They have 1 impact guy (Colby Rasmus) and thats about it, then a bunch of fringe names. Holliday would be awesome. But don't trade your best prospects (Donald and Marson) for 1 year of Holliday when you probably don't have to.

by **Squire** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:29:18

Shore wrote:
traderdave wrote:How much will Moyer cost?

I believe we own Moyer.

He's 46 years old in 2 weeks, and he's a type A. No one else will sign him.

I hope we don't compete against ourselves, and give him 2 years.

Exactly. I love Moyer but the options I present to him are as follows: (1) take our one year offer; (2) see you at arbitration; or (3) find a club willing to give up a pick for you and give you a multi-year deal. Moyer's going to pitch for the Phils or he's going to retire on top. We have all the leverage.

SQUIRE

by **dajafi** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:30:47

This whole series of transactions only works if the Phils get picks for Burrell. I worry that if it comes together too soon, either they won't offer arbitration, out of fear that Pat accepts, or they do offer arbitration and he accepts.

Wiz, I like the idea of trading Howard in the abstract, but there's just no way Amaro takes that PR hit. And after winning the title, it's sort of hard to blame him for being hesitant about dealing away a top-3 MVP candidate (and possible winner, dumb as that would be).

by **BIGPHILLY** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:37:55

Wizlah wrote:The Holliday stuff is deffo exciting, but am I the only one holding out hope that we also resign burrell+move him to first and trade howard? .

* Pat Burrell is not that good. Time to move on from Pat.

by **Wizlah** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:41:24

FTN wrote:Last year, the Mets traded the following for the best pitcher in baseball, who was 1 year from free agency

Kevin Mulvey (#4 SP at best, likely a #5)
Carlos Gomez (Really fast, sucks at getting on base)
Phil Humber (fodder, middle reliever at best)
Deolis Guerra (overrated pitching prospect, always more hype than substance)

Santana was the best pitcher in baseball prior to being traded.

yeah, but the mets got that trade through because whoever santana was traded to had to be able to pick up his paybill for a long term deal. And the only other two suitors had pulled all their chips off the table after the twins had spent too long playing one off against the other. Santana had a veto on who he could be traded to as well, didn't he? so you're talking a small group of buyers, and the twinkies had to trade. can't really compare the price they paid to what might be offered for Holliday.

On the other hand, if the cardinals are the only other team in for holliday, let them make the first offer. Then maybe we don't have to throw our best prospect at them.

The kendrick idea is an interesting one - especially if the rockies still all set on the idea that Groundball pitchers are a better fit for Coors field?

by **FTN** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:47:46

dajafi wrote:This whole series of transactions only works if the Phils get picks for Burrell. I worry that if it comes together too soon, either they won't offer arbitration, out of fear that Pat accepts, or they do offer arbitration and he accepts.

Wiz, I like the idea of trading Howard in the abstract, but there's just no way Amaro takes that PR hit. And after winning the title, it's sort of hard to blame him for being hesitant about dealing away a top-3 MVP candidate (and possible winner, dumb as that would be).

As much as Pat loves Philly, he knows this is his last big pay day. No way he takes 1/$12M in lieu of a 3 or 4 year deal worth 45-60M

by **Wizlah** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:48:36

dajafi wrote:This whole series of transactions only works if the Phils get picks for Burrell. I worry that if it comes together too soon, either they won't offer arbitration, out of fear that Pat accepts, or they do offer arbitration and he accepts.

seems to me that offering arb depends on how good your relations are with pat. If they've been straightforward in their dealings with him and their position, it shouldn't be hard for pat to confirm that he wont' accept. But if they've screwed him round, then I can see him not saying one way or the other to screw with their other offseason plans.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:53:23

BIGPHILLY wrote:
Wizlah wrote:The Holliday stuff is deffo exciting, but am I the only one holding out hope that we also resign burrell+move him to first and trade howard? .

* Pat Burrell is not that good. Time to move on from Pat.

i'd certainly take "not that good" over most of the other options out there.

by **phatj** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 13:00:12

phatj wrote:OK, is there a team with a pretty good corner OF prospect who's blocked, that could use an advance IF prospect? I'd rather do that than spend multiple prospects AND money on Holliday.

Seriously, does anyone know if this is even a possibility?

by **Halfbearded Marauder** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 13:07:33

The A's have a bunch of OF's. Matt Murton? The shine is gone from his star...

by **ReadingPhilly** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 13:10:52

but one baseball source said the Rockies likely would require Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth plus at least a couple of top prospects - start with righthander Carlos Carrasco and work down - to get serious. For those reasons, a deal might not make sense for the Phillies

-zolecki

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 13:14:55

ReadingPhilly wrote:
but one baseball source said the Rockies likely would require Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth plus at least a couple of top prospects - start with righthander Carlos Carrasco and work down - to get serious. For those reasons, a deal might not make sense for the Phillies

-zolecki

If that's the case, the Rockies can enjoy the two first round picks.

by **kruker** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 13:15:13

My one fear is giving up Carrasco and Happ in the same deal. I can't see anyway that our rotation makes it through 2009 with the same good health as we had in 2008. I don't really care which of them they give up, but hopefully not both. Otherwise keeping Taylor would give us leverage for a possible Werth departure.

by **Woody** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 13:32:24

ek wrote:they also hired another assistant gm from seattle

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