ek wrote:this sounds like filling a hole and then creating another one.

By Jon Heyman, SI.com

Holliday batted .321 in 2008, his fourth straight .300 season, but he dipped to 25 home runs and 88 RBIs, the first time since 2005 that he failed to top 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

but the Victorino looks like just speculation

If Heyman is going to use his silly counting stats, he should account for the fact that Holliday played in 20 less games this year. One thing I just noticed is that despite 100 less AB, Holliday ended up with 11 more walks this year than last. If his patience has picked up and his newfound ridiculous ability to steal bases (which might even be better if that's possible combined with Lopes), this would be an awesome pickup if the Phillies make it happen.

Why the heck are the Cards pursuing Holliday when they're rumored to be shopping Ludwick because he's arb eligible? Ludwick had a 150 OPS+ last year and, even in arbitration is going to make less than Holliday. Plus, they've already got him and don't have to trade anybody to get him.

What was the deal with Billy Wagner and the Mets? I remember reading that he said he wasn't going to be in a Mets uniform in 2009, but he's signed for '09 with a club option for '10. Is he going to refuse to play, or what?

tommy john surgery.....out for the year and the Mets owe him every cent

The Holliday stuff is deffo exciting, but am I the only one holding out hope that we also resign burrell+move him to first and trade howard? Burrell goes this year, we get two draft picks, but it seems to me that if we could trade howard at this point, we might get two pieces closer to ML-ready.

Seems to me the timing of an acquisition might help in any potential Howard negotiations. so long as you're keeping channels open with Burrell and looking at possibilities there, if you *are* intent on signing howard to a longer deal (not something I'm a fan of, but how and ever), you can play hardball by just saying 'we can leave at any point and give the money to pat'. Howards negotiations have been pretty tough so far, so I think you need that kind of leverage going into them.

Mind you, this is the kind of stuff I don't think amaro will do well. It requires him to be nice and approachable at all times, and I just don't think he is capable of that. God, I hope I'm wrong.

Woody wrote:

Peh.

Personally this is how I think the Holliday deal with shake out. First of all I think the Phillies are going to get him. By all accounts they were close to getting him at the trade deadline last year. They just didn't get to the finish line.

I don't think we can trade Happ and Carassco in a deal for Holliday without knowing we have Moyer resigned and that Kendrick can be our 5th starter next year. I liked the Jason Werth Carlos Carassco for Holiday deal much better than Carassco, Happ and Golson.

However I think the deal will wind up being Werth, Happ and a third lesser guy like Jason Jaramillo or Overholt. That is a good hall for Colorado because if and this is still a big if Werth stays healthy he could put up similar numbers to Holliday. Happ becomes their 5th starter and Jaramillo their backup catcher or Overholt an arm that can compete for a bullpen spot.

I very sincerely hope we do NOT trade werth for holliday in any deal. That would be epically dumb.

Trading Werth in a deal for Holliday limits the upside of the deal by creating another outfield hole to fill

And, Werth has little chance to ever put up numbers approaching Holliday's... Werth is a year older and his 2008 career high OPS+ is still 10 points lower than Holliday's career average OPS+

Also, Werth can't hit righties, whereas Holliday has creamed them

Carrasco, Happ, Gudel

Wizlah wrote:I very sincerely hope we do NOT trade werth for holliday in any deal. That would be epically dumb.

Werth will be a free agent at the end of 2009. He has a history of injuries and last year was a career year. Can you expect the same production next year?

I actually think this would be a case of selling a player at high value. Remember two years ago Holliday was a MVP canidate.

I don't see why we would strip the farm system to get 1 year of Holliday and his terrible road splits, and then have to deal with it again next year.
I would bite the bullet and give Pat his 3 years + a mutual option and i think he comes back easy - the last 2-3 years he might replace Howard at 1B. Let's not forget we won the WS without any hitters having a career year at the plate - we should expect to have the same or better offense next year even if we do lose Pat and have to go with a platoon in LF.

None of you think there's any chance that we get Halliday and resign Burrell?

BigB wrote:

Wizlah wrote:I very sincerely hope we do NOT trade werth for holliday in any deal. That would be epically dumb.

Werth will be a free agent at the end of 2009. He has a history of injuries and last year was a career year. Can you expect the same production next year?

Partly what woody said - if werth gets traded, we still have a hole to fill. But also I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on that wrist injury - it seems the further he gets away from 2006, the stronger it gets. I think it's misleading to talk about him having a career year when he spent so much of 2005 and 2006 hurt because of that one injury - it's hard to say for sure that this is as good as he's going to get.

I'm willing to gamble that he can do as well next year, in part because he always seems to give a tough at bat - there's not that much difference between his p/pa from last year to this year - so I think that his ability to get a pitch he wants remains roughly the same. I also like that in an increased number of PAs against rhp (263 in '08 vs 167 in '07), he managed to increase his slugging over last year, and that his OBP didn't drop hugely (about .370 in 2007, .360 in 08).

They are not signing Burell, so forget it.

1.) Holiday has nearly doubled his BB rate over the last two years.

2.) He road OPS in 2008 was .293 .408 .488 .896 (Utley's road OPS was .907) and is deflated because 36% of his road PAs are in 3 of the most extreme pitcher's parks in baseball (Petco, SF, Dodger).

3.) Holiday stole 28 bases last year

4.) Holiday can play all 9 innings.

5.) Trading for Holiday give you options in 2010. He probably will walk, but you could sign him and trade Howard.

Holiday is getting better.

I'm not saying they should give up the whole farm for what is likely a one year rental, but the farm system can be restocked, and none of the Phils prospects we're talking about are projected for stardom.

I mean Jason Donald? Really? We can't give up Jason Donald? What are the odds that Jason Donald has a better peak than David Bell? 30%?

Carrasco is nice, but he probably wont pitch in the bigs next year and by 2010 who is to say that Savery or Drabek or whoever won' thave passed him?

I'd love to keep Marson, but catcher appears to be our deepest organizational position.

Taylor? Brown? Ugh.

Trent Steele wrote:I mean Jason Donald? Really? We can't give up Jason Donald? What are the odds that Jason Donald has a better peak than David Bell? 30%?

Carrasco is nice, but he probably wont pitch in the bigs next year and by 2010 who is to say that Savery or Drabek or whoever won' thave passed him?

Well Donald has significantly outhit Bell in comparing minor league careers. I tend to think Donald and Marson are pretty important prospects to the Phillies as I think they can be full-time starters in 2010 at the latest. I have no problem trading 3 (and perhaps 4) of Kendrick, Happ, Carrasco, Savery, Golson.

Trent Steele wrote:I mean Jason Donald? Really? We can't give up Jason Donald? What are the odds that Jason Donald has a better peak than David Bell? 30%?

You think Jason Donald only has a 30% chance to post better than a 107 OPS+ at his peak? I'd say he has a better than 30% chance to do that in 2009 (assuming he plays in the majors). If the Phillies can find someone to take Pedro Feliz off their hands, I'd gladly pencil Donald into the lineup.

"I specifically don't want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off. I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together," Holliday said.

Welcome to Philadelphia, Matt, home of the 2008 World fucking Champion Phillies!

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_10899898

Jerry Hairston’s genes and the fact that he was not a total failure does not make him a qualified candidate for an everyday position in left field for the defending world series champion team. The Iron Pigs might benefit from his talent.

Although I am not of the school that Boras instantly means the player is leaving, or will not sign, I do expect Holliday to see what he is worth on the open market. Although he is attractive, I have a concern about a one year rental as the Rockies are unlikely to give him up cheaply, and I am not sure that the team would get a good investment, although his departure will get the Phils picks, and put them right back into this situation in one calendar year. Colorado can keep him and take the picks themselves, which is not necessarily foolish.

If there is a trade, I unrealistically hope that the team could sell Kendrick’s previous numbers in the bigs with the idea that he would benefit from a change of scenery. I am sure that the team will vote him a ring. Make him into the next Brad Lidge looking for a home. Only Ed Wade would be that dumb.

I saw that there is an expectation that we will not sign Burell, and that is with good reason, but I am interested in what, if anything, the team has done with Burrell. I have been on travel and have not been able to dig around too much. This thread is focused on Burrell being replaced (which is fine), but is there anything to know about what is happening with Burrell beyond he is looking for 3 or more years and that the team has inferred that he could do well by heading to the AL to be a DH (which I would question as I do not see him being a great DH)?