Manny will be a Phillies (version 3.11)

Manny will be a Phillies (version 3.11)

Postby FTN » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:13:22

So, the rumor mill is kicking, and this is the hottest of the bunch. The Red Sox are apparently tired of his antics (again) and have been clear they'd move him, with Epstein feeding direct quotes to Tim McCarver yesterday. But lets be realistic and address this point by point.

* Ramirez has missed a few games recently with various "ailments", but his production hasn't tailed off. Since July 1, his batting line is .356/.493/.576

* In the past, his contract has always been the #1 stumbling point. But his contract now isn't that much of a problem

8 years/$168M (2001-08), plus 2009-10 club options

* signed as free agent 12/00
* $16M signing bonus paid over 5 years
* 01:$13M, 02:$15.5M, 03:$18M, 04:$20.5M, 05:$20M, 06:$19M, 07:$18M, 08:$20M, 09:$20M club option, 10:$20M club option
* $1M bonus if traded


There is essentially 1/3 of a season left, meaning Ramirez is due approximately $6M for the rest of the year, plus the $1M bonus he gets if he's traded.

* Manny's 20M options for the next 2 years will almost assuredly not be picked up, and the Red Sox would have probably tried to negotiate some kind of deal with him instead of taking the 20M option in 2009 and 2010.

* Manny is a 10/5 player, so he can veto any trade. But if he's unhappy in Boston, you'd have to think he'd be open to a deal

* His relationship with Charlie Manuel is well documented.

* Should the option not be picked up, he comes a Type A free agent, which nets the Phillies two draft picks. Of course, they could also re-sign him to a deal more suited to their payroll structure, should Manny want to stay.

* People are starting to say Manny isn't the same type of hitter anymore.

2008: .298/.398/.524
2007: .296/.388/.493
2006: .321/.439/.619
2005: .292/.388/.594
2004: .308/.397/.613

Essentially, his on base percentage and average are very close to his career norms, but his power has dropped off the last 2 seasons. Is this because he's getting older? Has his bat speed just dropped off slightly? He's 36 this year.

* At this point, you're looking at Manny as a rental. What do you give up for him? What do you give up for a .925 OPS guy for 2 months of production?

* Defensively, Manny is awful. But can Burrell play RF?

* Boston probably does not want Victorino in a deal, because they have a similar player (better player) in Ellsbury, and they have Coco Crisp as well. Ellsbury will probably play LF with Crisp in CF should Manny be moved, and now that Ortiz is back, one of Crisp/Ellsbury would have to sit every night to make room for Manny. Of course, they could view Victorino as a good 4th OF and use him as depth. But it seems unlikely. But that raises the question, what would Boston want? They still have one of the best farm systems in baseball.

Assuming we don't trade Victorino. How good would this lineup be?

Rollins, SS
Utley, 2B
Manny, LF
Howard, 1B
Burrell, RF
Victorino, CF
Feliz, 3B
Ruiz, C

Jenkins and Werth on the bench. Taguchi cut.
Last edited by FTN on Mon Nov 10, 2008 15:32:40, edited 8 times in total.

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Postby karn » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:15:40

I fully expect Manny and his agent to demand that any team looking to acquire him picks up both 20 mil options before he even considers going there.

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Postby JFLNYC » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:15:55

If we don't have to give up too much and if the Sox would pick up all or part of his remaining salary for the year, why not?
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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:16:40

karn wrote:I fully expect Manny and his agent to demand that any team looking to acquire him picks up both 20 mil options before he even considers going there.


But if he really wants out of Boston (this time) his agent will know thats a deal breaker. And he doesn't have all that much leverage, because if he stays, Boston will just let him walk after the season and decline the options while taking the picks.

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Postby JDS » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:16:49

yeah, that won't happen

Every trade deadline it's the same story and rumors surrounding Manny. Nothing will change this time around, and manny will still be in boston.

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Postby dajafi » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:17:28

Hasn't their bullpen been a little shaky lately? Maybe they'd take Madson or Durbin plus a prospect. Maybe Jaramillo, given Tek's age and their evident lack of excitement about in-house alternatives who are almost MLB-ready.

That's not equal value, obviously, but if they're just looking to ditch Manny, maybe it would come close.

Then the question is whether you'd want to risk weakening the bullpen and defense, pushing Burrell out of his comfort zone and changing the culture of the team to bring him in.

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Postby JFLNYC » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:17:36

karn wrote:I fully expect Manny and his agent to demand that any team looking to acquire him picks up both 20 mil options before he even considers going there.


The Sox aren't going to do it and neither is any team acquiring him. So Manny will have to choose whether he wants to play the rest of the year in Boston or somewhere else.
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Postby Trent Steele » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:18:23

karn wrote:I fully expect Manny and his agent to demand that any team looking to acquire him picks up both 20 mil options before he even considers going there.


I don't think Manny wants those options picked up. At least that is what he said. He wants to be a FA this year or to work out a 4 year deal.
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Postby JFLNYC » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:18:25

dajafi wrote:Hasn't their bullpen been a little shaky lately? Maybe they'd take Madson or Durbin plus a prospect. Maybe Jaramillo, given Tek's age and their evident lack of excitement about in-house alternatives who are almost MLB-ready.

That's not equal value, obviously, but if they're just looking to ditch Manny, maybe it would come close.

Then the question is whether you'd want to risk weakening the bullpen and defense, pushing Burrell out of his comfort zone and changing the culture of the team to bring him in.


Where's CJ Henry when you need him to trade?
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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:19:00

dajafi wrote:Hasn't their bullpen been a little shaky lately? Maybe they'd take Madson or Durbin plus a prospect. Maybe Jaramillo, given Tek's age and their evident lack of excitement about in-house alternatives who are almost MLB-ready.

That's not equal value, obviously, but if they're just looking to ditch Manny, maybe it would come close.

Then the question is whether you'd want to risk weakening the bullpen and defense, pushing Burrell out of his comfort zone and changing the culture of the team to bring him in.


If he replaces Jenkins in our lineup, I'd roll the dice on "chemistry"....remember, most of his teammates absolutely love him. Its the front office that doesn't, and its probably more Terry Francona who doesn't. Would he be more willing to stop "being Manny" if he was playing for someone he loved instead?

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Postby Trent Steele » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:19:07

Would you trade them Burrell for Manny and Bucholtz?
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Postby karn » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:19:30

I don't know, man...he's put up with so much for so long there...that team is still a serious World Series contender...I have to believe he'd "tough out" three more months and then go the FA route before agreeing to be traded as a rental to a team not at the level of Boston...and then go the FA route.

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Postby JFLNYC » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:20:08

Trent Steele wrote:Would you trade them Burrell for Manny and Bucholtz?


No. Burrell's better and Buckholz has lost faith in his fastball.
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Postby LongDrive » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:20:25

That line-up would be sick. I think Burrell being able to play RF is a big question. I think he can, and his arm is good enough.

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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:20:46

Buchholz

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Postby JFLNYC » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:21:33

Victorino would be one busy guy.
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Postby jp_chips » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:21:52

How much would Manny actually play with all those rules Charlie has,you know like hustling and being on time.

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Postby ReadingPhilly » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:22:56

Keeping Burrell and adding Manny means I could care less about defense. Not that big of a deal with our home ballpark either.

I doubt Burrell waives his NTC if he's in the deal.

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Postby JDS » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:23:05

One of the top 10 right handed hitters of all time and one of their top pitching prospects for Burrell?

Are you people kidding?

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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 27, 2008 13:23:23

Trading Burrell for Manny is a lateral move and won't happen.

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