Oh Geeze!!

I'm trying to find the positive here and realized that if we can trade Wes Helms, Feliz in 2008 is the same amount of money, roughly, we spent on Helms and Nunez in 2007, and having a nine-inning third baseman will mean Dobbs has less chance of being overexposed (and/or pulled late in games), which worried me. Still that OBP is grim.

CSN:

Gillick says it's not a done deal yet....Amaro has been handling the negotiations and he'll be out of town tomorrow.

Rollins says he remembers Feliz taking a few doubles away from him

Manuel is OK with him

What exactly does Gillick ever do for the Phillies? Jesus Christ.

um YAY

really? this isn't a joke?

So you guys who hate this signing, read the following from one of the top working sabermetricians, Tom Tango:

Pedro Feliz:

His fielding is sensational, Gold-Glove caliber. And I say this without ever having seen him (or noticing him). I’m no expert, which is why I rely on Giants fans. Fans call him +1.5 wins as a fielder. John Dewan has him as the top 3B from 2005-2007 (+61 runs). Clearly, he’s fantastic with the glove.

His hitting on the other hand is at the -1.0 or -1.5 win level.

Overall, he’s somewhere between a league average 3B to a somewhat above. Add in the aging, and he’s at league average, or a bit below.

That puts him right around a +2 WAR player.

I’d sign him for 2/16, or 3/21.

My guess is that good fielding, no-hitting 3B are undervalued. Let’s see who goes for him.

#43 —tangotiger, 11/10 @ 10:24 AM

We have all wanted the Phils to be more of a "Moneyball" team. Today's signing, contrary to popular opinion, pushes them in that direction.

Moneyball isn't about OBP, it's about figuring out which assets are undervalued. As published in MLewis's sequel to MB, Beane said that everyone was getting on the OBP bandwagon, and he thought defense was now the most undervalued (and poorly evaluated) asset. Tom Tango's comment above that he is worth $8 million per year as a FA tells you just HOW undervalued he is.

He's a slightly worse hitter than Helms figures to be this year. He's probably the best defensive 3B in the major leagues. The defensive improvement from worst to best is probably worth 2.5 to 3.5 wins (25-35 runs) if he plays 70%+ time. Maybe more, if he's taking Helms' time, who was probably 10 to 15 runs below average defensively. It's probably a 2 or 3 win upgrade, and with wins going for about 4.4 million in the FA market, he was a discount signing, and a good one. As much as it pains me to say it.

Of course I'd prefer Zimmerman or Wright, but that's not an option.

Good stuff, pc. I'm not sure I agree, but I like the argument, and I'd like to believe the org knows what they're doing.

I think part of the reaction to Feliz--which I share--is just disgust at the thought of a guy with a sub-.300 OBP playing for our Phillies. Maybe this is "our" version of the guy in the upper deck who screams at Abreu for not crashing into the wall...

Of ESPN's statistically qualified MLB batters last season, Feliz ranked 158 out of 162 in OBP. That's just so so bad that it's hard to look past

If you change the settings to minimum of 200 plate appearances, he improves his ranking to 311 out of 341.

This is a good move. For me, anyway. For my psyche, to be more specific.

See, anytime Helms would stroll to the plate this coming season, I'd get a sunken feeling of despair. It's gonna take AT LEAST half of as season for Feliz to "rise" to that same level. So it gives me a half season of less Tums.

Good times.

Bucky wrote:This is a good move. For me, anyway. For my psyche, to be more specific.

See, anytime Helms would stroll to the plate this coming season, I'd get a sunken feeling of despair. It's gonna take AT LEAST half of as season for Feliz to "rise" to that same level. So it gives me a half season of less Tums.

Good times.

I like the way you think and I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Warszawa wrote:So the real question is...what rhymes with Feliz??!

given his propensity to swing first and ask "ball?" later, "the Breeze" would appear to fit

STEEZ

Feliz's defense is really that good.

From last year: Defense: PMR (+20)-- Dewan (+18)-- UZR (+22)-- Fans (+15) (all in runs, PMR, Dewan, and UZR+ come from play-by-play sheets which account for saved hits and their value, both singles and doubles.

I hope Manuel pinch hits for him when behind in late innings, but I kind of don't think that will happen.

Woody wrote:Of ESPN's statistically qualified MLB batters last season, Feliz ranked 158 out of 162 in OBP. That's just so so bad that it's hard to look past

If you change the settings to minimum of 200 plate appearances, he improves his ranking to 311 out of 341.

career EQA

.263 - Helms
.244 - Feliz

260 is average, and this is adjusted for league and park

Does his defense make up for it? I don't know much about defensive metrics

Woody wrote:Of ESPN's statistically qualified MLB batters last season, Feliz ranked 158 out of 162 in OBP. That's just so so bad that it's hard to look past

If you change the settings to minimum of 200 plate appearances, he improves his ranking to 311 out of 341.

Two words: Home runs.

Pacino--his D is about 20 runs above average, about 30-35 above Helms/Dobbs.

His O is about 10-15 runs worse. That makes him a + acquisition. I don't like the guy a lot, and he's going to drive me nuts swinging out of the zone, but he's better than what we had, and Hamels is going to love him.

phillychuck wrote:Pacino--his D is about 20 runs above average, about 30-35 above Helms/Dobbs.

His O is about 10-15 runs worse. That makes him a + acquisition. I don't like the guy a lot, and he's going to drive me nuts swinging out of the zone, but he's better than what we had, and Hamels is going to love him.

That silly. Hamels will barely notice him. Kendrick will love him.

I like Dobbs, but he's likely to decline a bit offensively. Helms may rebound, but he's godawful defensively. I think I place more weight on good defense than most and Feliz' defense will help make the pitching staff better. His offense will likely be about the same (or slightly worse) than Dobbs/Helms. When you add in that 38 of Feliz' last 60 HR have been on the road, I'm OK with this trade, especially @ $4.25MM/yr -- which is a bit below his MORP. I'd have preferred MIke Lowell but, given the paucity of other good options, this deal is a net plus at a very reasonable price.

over/under on paydro's first dong is...

may 17th