pedro feliz signs 2yr/8.5mil w/ team option 3rd year

by **BigEd76** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 17:50:09

Catchers
Ruiz
Coste

Infielders
Howard
Utley
Rollins
Feliz
Dobbs
Bruntlett

Outfielders
Burrell
Victorino
Jenkins
Werth
Taguchi

Starting Pitchers
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Kendrick
Eaton

Relief Pitchers
Durbin (one of em)
Zagurski
Rosario
Madson
Romero
Gordon
Lidge

I guess that's our 25-man roster, with Helms traded?

by **Laexile** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 17:53:04

Camp Holdout wrote:
Laexile wrote:This could be a good move.

1) They go from two of the worst defensive third basemen, Dobbs and Helms, to one of the best.

2) Charlie gave 212 ABs to Abe Nunez as a 3B last year with Dobbs and Helms playing there. There's no reason to think Charlie wouldn't have given the same number of ABs to Eric Brunlett this year. Bruntlett is a horrible hitter and not that good a fielder. So there alone this is an upgrade.

3) Based on park effect and the 19% bump in walks Phillies' players had last year he'd increase by three singles, a triple, five homers, and six walks, while going down five doubles. That would raise him from .250/.290/.415 to .261/.309/.451 and a .760 OPS.

4) New players had a 54% bump in walks. Rod Barajas went from one walk every 19.7 plate appearances to one walk every 6. Feliz is in Barajas class. Feliz's biggest weakness, walks, is the thing Milt and Charlie usually help players with. Players who are undervalued due to a lack of walks can have more value to the Phillies as a result.

those reasons are kinda fun...

i agree with them, this COULD be good.

but... i just wish it were for 1 year, that's all.

As do I. I'd have liked them to get a talented young 3B to solve the problem. But that wasn't going to happen. This is better than the alternative, doing nothing. I'm guessing that if they didn't sign Feliz for this year the money wouldn't have been spent. So that doesn't concern me. I'd like it not to go into next year, but if it isn't a lot it won't impact the Phillies' payroll.

by **Camp Holdout** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 17:56:41

by the way check out the sponsor box in his b-r page

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/felizpe01.shtml

by **Disco Stu** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 17:59:33

Laexile wrote:This could be a good move.

1) They go from two of the worst defensive third basemen, Dobbs and Helms, to one of the best.

2) Charlie gave 212 ABs to Abe Nunez as a 3B last year with Dobbs and Helms playing there. There's no reason to think Charlie wouldn't have given the same number of ABs to Eric Brunlett this year. Bruntlett is a horrible hitter and not that good a fielder. So there alone this is an upgrade.

3) Based on park effect and the 19% bump in walks Phillies' players had last year he'd increase by three singles, a triple, five homers, and six walks, while going down five doubles. That would raise him from .250/.290/.415 to .261/.309/.451 and a .760 OPS.

4) New players had a 54% bump in walks. Rod Barajas went from one walk every 19.7 plate appearances to one walk every 6. Feliz is in Barajas class. Feliz's biggest weakness, walks, is the thing Milt and Charlie usually help players with. Players who are undervalued due to a lack of walks can have more value to the Phillies as a result.

Any negatives? All of these things could happen (despite the small samplesize) however, you neglected to mention that Feliz is 32 years old and improvement at this stage of his career, despit epark changes, is fairly unlikely.

by **milton bernard thompson** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:00:30

i don't get all the hate for feliz. ugly offensively to be sure, but he's better than nunez defensively and MUCH MUCH better than him offensively. if his offense is particularly putrid i'm sure dobbs and helms will get plenty of chances, and if it's not we'll have the best defensive third baseman in baseball and added OF and IF depth.

he had a .708 OPS in a tough hitting park last year in arguably the toughest pitching division in the majors, so it's not crazy to think he can put up a .720-.740 effort with a bunch of homers. if he can accomplish this i would have to say it's better than hoping for an .800 OPS out of the dobbs-helms platoon which we probably won't end up getting with awful defense on a daily basis. i like it.

by **philliesphhan** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:04:25

by **VFB** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:04:54

assuming he doesn't take ABs away from DOBBS vs RHP and it keeps bruntlett off the field - it's better than nothing.

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:07:19

by **Laexile** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:08:35

Disco Stu wrote:
Laexile wrote:This could be a good move.

1) They go from two of the worst defensive third basemen, Dobbs and Helms, to one of the best.

2) Charlie gave 212 ABs to Abe Nunez as a 3B last year with Dobbs and Helms playing there. There's no reason to think Charlie wouldn't have given the same number of ABs to Eric Brunlett this year. Bruntlett is a horrible hitter and not that good a fielder. So there alone this is an upgrade.

3) Based on park effect and the 19% bump in walks Phillies' players had last year he'd increase by three singles, a triple, five homers, and six walks, while going down five doubles. That would raise him from .250/.290/.415 to .261/.309/.451 and a .760 OPS.

4) New players had a 54% bump in walks. Rod Barajas went from one walk every 19.7 plate appearances to one walk every 6. Feliz is in Barajas class. Feliz's biggest weakness, walks, is the thing Milt and Charlie usually help players with. Players who are undervalued due to a lack of walks can have more value to the Phillies as a result.

Any negatives? All of these things could happen (despite the small samplesize) however, you neglected to mention that Feliz is 32 years old and improvement at this stage of his career, despit epark changes, is fairly unlikely.

Of course there are negatives. He could be as bad as the most pessimistic person thinks he will be. He's been .708 to .717 the last three years. If he does that again it's probably a loss of offense. But I'm not asking for improvement. I'm asking for the same performance. Five of his doubles become home runs in CBP. He's only a few months older than Rod Barajas, so an improvement in walks could easily happen.

He could go all Wes Helms on us too. But then so could Geoff Jenkins.

by **Disco Stu** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:08:53

Vote For Brett wrote:assuming he doesn't take ABs away from DOBBS vs RHP and it keeps bruntlett off the field - it's better than nothing.

Feliz has hit slightly better against righties over the last 3 years.

by **Disco Stu** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:10:35

Laexile wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:
Laexile wrote:This could be a good move.

1) They go from two of the worst defensive third basemen, Dobbs and Helms, to one of the best.

2) Charlie gave 212 ABs to Abe Nunez as a 3B last year with Dobbs and Helms playing there. There's no reason to think Charlie wouldn't have given the same number of ABs to Eric Brunlett this year. Bruntlett is a horrible hitter and not that good a fielder. So there alone this is an upgrade.

3) Based on park effect and the 19% bump in walks Phillies' players had last year he'd increase by three singles, a triple, five homers, and six walks, while going down five doubles. That would raise him from .250/.290/.415 to .261/.309/.451 and a .760 OPS.

4) New players had a 54% bump in walks. Rod Barajas went from one walk every 19.7 plate appearances to one walk every 6. Feliz is in Barajas class. Feliz's biggest weakness, walks, is the thing Milt and Charlie usually help players with. Players who are undervalued due to a lack of walks can have more value to the Phillies as a result.

Any negatives? All of these things could happen (despite the small samplesize) however, you neglected to mention that Feliz is 32 years old and improvement at this stage of his career, despit epark changes, is fairly unlikely.

Of course there are negatives. He could be as bad as the most pessimistic person thinks he will be. He's been .708 to .717 the last three years. If he does that again it's probably a loss of offense. But I'm not asking for improvement. I'm asking for the same performance. Five of his doubles become home runs in CBP. He's only a few months older than Rod Barajas, so an improvement in walks could easily happen.

He could go all Wes Helms on us too. But then so could Geoff Jenkins.

Why do you use Barajas as a baseline? His season was likely an anomoly with respect to walks. Grasping for straws as fine, but I see no reason to say that Feliz will walk more because Barajas did, unless Feliz bats 8th and comes up with men on base a lot.

by **WilliamC** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:11:18

Disco Stu wrote:
Vote For Brett wrote:assuming he doesn't take ABs away from DOBBS vs RHP and it keeps bruntlett off the field - it's better than nothing.

Feliz has hit slightly better against righties over the last 3 years.

But is his "slightly better" better than the numbers that Dobbs will likely put up against RHers? We know Dobbs isn't going to hit lefties, but I do think this is the type of move that will likely be for pretty much an everyday starting basis.

by **stevemc** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:11:32

maybe he'll go all Earl Weaver on our collective behind considering he'll have a lot more people on base ahead of his HRs than the worst OBP team in the league the last 2 years (which of course he was a big reason why the Giants were so low on the OBP totem pole).

Good defense and a couple of late inning 3 run bombs? Wheels is getting out his "grit" meter as we speak.

by **kenrosenthal** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:28:20

"We haven't finalized anything, but have been talking to his representatives," Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said late Monday afternoon.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:30:09

stupid parallel move. makes the offense a game or two worse and the defense a game or two better. not worth spending money on, and not worth making a deal for 2009. there is no reason to clog up 2009 based on him.

if there's a silver lining, it's that it shows the phillies have definitely raised payroll. This has to be for at least 3 or 4 million, and even if Howard loses in arbitration, they should have a payroll that is clearly above 100. If they don't trade Helms, it'll be near 105. At least that shows they aren't totally braindead about raising payroll as salaries rise.

sadly, i have very little faith that the phillies can magically improve his OBP. this historical correlation smells of small sample size bias, and i haven't seen it even be clearly true for a regular.

i think the worst part about this move for me is that it eliminates hopes to do something different at third base in 2009, meaning this is the 7th year in a row of futility there.

by **kenrosenthal** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:30:54

im still hoping it is one year and an option

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:34:55

I guess it comes down to how much of a defensive upgrade he is over Helms/Dobbs. Obviously, he is a defensive upgrade and some of the more sophisticated metrics show Feliz as the best defensive 3B in baseball.

My guess is that this probably improves the Phillies slightly. Does that justify the contract?

by **BigEd76** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:37:12

MattS wrote:i think the worst part about this move for me is that it eliminates hopes to do something different at third base in 2009

Not really much to choose from for 3B next year either...

Chipper Jones (unlikely to leave Atlanta)
Troy Glaus
Joe Crede
Hank Blalock
Rich Aurilia
Pablo Ozuna
Geoff Blum
Aaron Boone
Wes Helms
Abe Nunez

by **kenrosenthal** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:43:04

if you can believe it, there is a team option for 2010

by **Phight On!** » Mon Jan 28, 2008 18:55:43

2 years/8.5 million according to ESPN

Edit- And a team option for 2010

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pedro feliz signs 2yr/8.5mil w/ team option 3rd year