JFLNYC wrote:Welcome to my world.

FFS, I'd normally say stay safe, but now it has to be stay alive.

A good read in Politico today...

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... ngs-430238

The election comes down to one simple thing basically...it's not Covid..it's not the economy...it's not racial issues...

It's just that simply, people don't like Trump and are tired of him and don't want four more years of this..

I wonder why Mitch is the Republicans in the Senate don't care what kind of deal Pelosi and Trump reach and their priority is confirming ACB. Is he trying to sink Trump, does he think he can somehow control a media narrative and this isn't a problem (but surely for those R Senators in tough re-election battles it is, not to mention it can't be helping Trump), or does he simply not have the votes get it it passed--that is, he knows he can't get a majority of Senate Republicans on board and he's trying to save himself and his party major embarrassment?

It’s the only thing he cares about.

I agree it's the most likely explanation, but it's pretty easy for D Senate candidates to start hammering their opponents on it, and I can't imagine prioritizing a SC judge nomination over covid relief is a winning issue.

If the SC nominee gets to rule on the election isn’t that the most important thing?

No. She's going to be on the court for 30 years. That's the most important thing. And her confirmation is a lot more popular than Trump is rn.

As for the COVID stimulus, I think despite everything Trump demonstrated about the GOP primary electorate in 2016, there is still an ingrained belief among GOP senators that their base will punish them for overspending. Which is legitimately insane and dumb for any number of reasons. We're already running a ridiculous deficit. The economy needs 6 more months of government stabilization to carry us through until a vaccine. It's very popular. They should have passed it months ago. You'd think they maybe would catch on to the fact that the market goes up every time a deal appears possible and plummets every time it falls apart. The Senate GOP appears likely to get their shit kicked in two weeks from now partially as a result. Whatever they do now is too late to matter politically, but I could see Trump completely losing interest after the election, so doing something while he cares seems important.

jerseyhoya wrote:
As for the COVID stimulus, I think despite everything Trump demonstrated about the GOP primary electorate in 2016, there is still an ingrained belief among GOP senators that their base will punish them for overspending.

To be fair, the Democratic elite haven't realized that economic populism is popular either.

McConnell and the R’s think Trump may well lose and, if he does, they want to burnish their limited spending credentials for 2022 and beyond.

(CNN)President Donald Trump's tax records show he has pursued expansive business projects in China for years and even maintains a Chinese bank account, The New York Times reported Tuesday,

Loser

CHINA DON

Uncle Milty wrote:shoulda used sheep

then it would be flock immunity. Tough call.

The Dude wrote:If the SC nominee gets to rule on the election isn’t that the most important thing?

It could help Trump win the election, but it also might help McConnell keep the Senate. If she helps stop the vote counting with her vote on the court, anything that helps Trump will probably help the GOP senators trying to hold their seats.

JFLNYC wrote:McConnell and the R’s think Trump may well lose and, if he does, they want to burnish their limited spending credentials for 2022 and beyond.

Yeh, this is what Marshall is saying at TPM. It makes a lot of sense. He also makes the point that they did the same thing last time they lost the presidency. They didn't care about deficit spending with Bush, but flipped it coming out of the elections. They are pretty effective being a minority party because they are willing to show no moral compass.

thephan wrote:

(CNN)President Donald Trump's tax records show he has pursued expansive business projects in China for years and even maintains a Chinese bank account, The New York Times reported Tuesday,

Loser

So he probably hates them because they didn't fawn over his offers and give him the keys to Beijing. Big baby. What a snowflake.

As the story says, the Biden being soft on China is now a dead talking point

Wrong thread?

Great Biden ad debuted during World Series tonight...narrator is Sam Elliot

https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/status ... 6896123905

Monkeyboy wrote:I think Biden is o run up a ridiculous lead in the traditional blue states, but Trump could win close races in a bunch of swing and red states and win this thing. I now Biden is up 10% nationally, but a lot of that lead is in blue states where Trump is EXTREMELY unpopular, much more so then he was in 2016. I think if Trump does win it, it will be with the biggest popular deficit in history.

I don't think we can count of PA. Need AZ + WI + NE2/ME2 or some other combination. Tough to win FL with that FL Gov. Certainly can't count on any of the red states Biden is currently narrowly leading.

I'm just concerned that 10.7 lead is misleading given where it comes from.

I wouldn't even look at the national. But I will do my best here to quell your fears about this.

For starters, if he just flips PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he wins. He doesn't need anything else because, having the states Hillary also won, puts him over 270. Barely, but it does do so.

Biden is currently up 7.3 in WI, 6.3 in PA, and 8.0 in Michigan.

He's also up 3.6 in Florida, 3.9 in Arizona, and 3.2 in NC. Too close for comfort? Well, how about these states from Trump's point of view:

Georgia is currently a toss-up at roughly 0.8 for Biden. Trump won it by 5 in 2016.
Ohio is also a toss-up with 0.1 lead for Trump. He won it by 8.1 (!) in 2016.
Iowa is another toss-up with 0.2 for Biden. Trump won this by 9.4 (!!!) in 2016.
Texas 1.2 for Trump. He won by 9 in 2016.

Then there are states like Minnesota and New Hampshire which Clinton won, but not by much.
1.5 for Clinton in Minnesota in 2016, and Biden is up 7.2
0.37 (!) for Clinton in New Hampshire, and Biden is up 11.6!!!

So, yes, anything is possible and Trump could pull out an upset in some swing states by a last minute surge, but he's got a TON of ground to make up everywhere because places he had comfortable leads last time could easily go the other way.

If Trump is losing Georgia and FL on election day, then yes, he's toast. But if you slide the results over 3% or so, Trump locks up all those purplish places Biden would love to win (GA, NC, FL, etc). Then it comes down to the 3 you mention, and maybe AZ. If it gets down to those 3, we could have trouble winning them all with the crazy amount of shenanigans that will happen. PA is hugely important and Trump is set up to steal it, if things shift a few %. If it comes down to PA, Biden will lose. I feel pretty certain of it. The SCOTUS will steal it for Trump.

Fortunately, I think most people have made up their minds and the polls have probably adjusted. But a largish polling error isn't out of the question. 3-4% would be all that's needed.