slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

CalvinBall wrote:

MoBettle wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

Yeah. I understand why it is doing that, but visually it is a startling thing.

Yup, hopefully it doesn’t come down to that with the delays in counting being a nightmare. Florida is supposed to be better at counting now right? Feel like it breaking for Biden early is the best shot at this being relatively quickly wrapped up.

If you simply click that Biden wins ME, NH, and NV his chances for winning overall shoot up to 97.

Bucky wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

yep, by a combined 70K votes in all three states.

CalvinBall wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

This is frightening. If you have Trump winning PA the whole map changes. It is wild.

MoBettle wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

Yeah. I understand why it is doing that, but visually it is a startling thing.

Yup, hopefully it doesn’t come down to that with the delays in counting being a nightmare. Florida is supposed to be better at counting now right? Feel like it breaking for Biden early is the best shot at this being relatively quickly wrapped up.

Monkeyboy wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

This is frightening. If you have Trump winning PA the whole map changes. It is wild.

Yes, the 538 article from a few weeks ago has Trump's chances going to over 80% if he wins PA and I think he will win PA because they have spent a lot of time coming up with a plan to steal it. If he steals this election, the country will burn. I think that's why you continue to see him attack urban areas. He's setting up the narrative, and has been for a while, that the cities are lawless places and you have to be hard on protestors.

impossible for the Russians to be manipulating Giuliani, say supporters of man who was apparently hoodwinked by <checks notes> Borat

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Bucky wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

yep, by a combined 70K votes in all three states.

The point is that he only need one of the three to win. He can even lose AZ so long as he holds any one of the three, though if WI is the one he holds that would require the House of Representatives voting and him holding on to the ME and NE single EVs he won in 2016 - neither of which seems implausible.

I mean the thing I keep coming back to is his voters are really threatened. He is a representation of their ids and they feel backed into a corner and threatened. That Trump parade I spoke of drew thousands in Bucks County driving all up and down everywhere because a few hundred middle aged women decided to do a mini-women's march in Doylestown.

They will do whatever is necessary to win because losing means the annihilation of themselves as they see it.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Bucky wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

yep, by a combined 70K votes in all three states.

The point is that he only need one of the three to win. He can even lose AZ so long as he holds any one of the three, though if WI is the one he holds that would require the House of Representatives voting and him holding on to the ME and NE single EVs he won in 2016 - neither of which seems implausible.

I mean the thing I keep coming back to is his voters are really threatened. He is a representation of their ids and they feel backed into a corner and threatened. That Trump parade I spoke of drew thousands in Bucks County driving all up and down everywhere because a few hundred middle aged women decided to do a mini-women's march in Doylestown.

They will do whatever is necessary to win because losing means the annihilation of themselves as they see it.

Yes, he just needs to win one of them and I really think he will win PA because it will go to SCOTUS. It's already set up.

But even without cheating, if he's got a 15% chance at all 3, then he's got a 45% chance to win one of them. If we get a 3% swing towards Trump with bad polling or GOP voters coming home to roost (which they almost always do), all those states propping up Biden's win % will disappear and we'll be down to the same 3 states again. It's hard to replace PA electoral votes without winning FL or needing multiple red states to turn blue. With his unpopularity on the coasts being off the charts, he could lose the popular vote by 5% and still sneak out the electoral win.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Bucky wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

yep, by a combined 70K votes in all three states.

The point is that he only need one of the three to win. He can even lose AZ so long as he holds any one of the three, though if WI is the one he holds that would require the House of Representatives voting and him holding on to the ME and NE single EVs he won in 2016 - neither of which seems implausible.

I mean the thing I keep coming back to is his voters are really threatened. He is a representation of their ids and they feel backed into a corner and threatened. That Trump parade I spoke of drew thousands in Bucks County driving all up and down everywhere because a few hundred middle aged women decided to do a mini-women's march in Doylestown.

They will do whatever is necessary to win because losing means the annihilation of themselves as they see it.

Yes, he just needs to win one of them and I really think he will win PA because it will go to SCOTUS. It's already set up.

But even without cheating, if he's got a 15% chance at all 3, then he's got a 45% chance to win one of them. If we get a 3% swing towards Trump with bad polling or GOP voters coming home to roost (which they almost always do), all those states propping up Biden's win % will disappear and we'll be down to the same 3 states again. It's hard to replace PA electoral votes without winning FL or needing multiple red states to turn blue. With his unpopularity on the coasts being off the charts, he could lose the popular vote by 5% and still sneak out the electoral win.