Polling errors aren't a one way street.

Uncle Milty wrote:Polling errors aren't a one way street.

For sure. And if dems are as motivated as they appear to be, the error may go the other way.

I don't have any sense of the ground games of either side. COVID makes it harder to predict, but I would imagine the more motivated side would have even more of an advantage than usual because a lot of the get out the vote push won't be there to get unmotivated people to the polls. But that's just off the top of my head.

The US and Russia appear on the verge of extending the treaty governing each country's nuclear weapon stockpiles by at least a year, according to reports yesterday. The agreement would essentially freeze the existing deal known as the New START—or Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty—signed by then-President Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

What will Trump do to quash that because Obama?

thephan wrote:

The US and Russia appear on the verge of extending the treaty governing each country's nuclear weapon stockpiles by at least a year, according to reports yesterday. The agreement would essentially freeze the existing deal known as the New START—or Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty—signed by then-President Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

What will Trump do to quash that because Obama?

That to me is a signal that Russia may not think Trump will win. Starting to hedge their bets a bit.

Read some stuff about trump trashing Erie during a rally there. Getting any play?

TenuredVulture wrote:Read some stuff about trump trashing Erie during a rally there. Getting any play?

Nah, one of those things that if a normal politician did it it might be a story but it’s minor compared to like 10 other things he’s done in the last week so it doesn’t get much attention.

TenuredVulture wrote:Read some stuff about trump trashing Erie during a rally there. Getting any play?

The clip I saw:

Ya know, before the plague came in, I had it made. I wasn't coming to Erie. I mean I have to be honest, there is no way I was coming. I didn't have to. I would've called you and said, "Hey, Erie, ya know, if you have a chance get out and vote". We had this thing won. We were so far up. We had the greatest economy ever, greatest jobs, greatest everything. And then we got hit with the plague and I had to go back to work. Hello Erie, may I please have your vote.

This is pretty "Wow" but, like Mo said, this is like the 58th worst thing Trump said this week. That said, him acknowledging he wasn't going to Erie is probably the most honest thing he has said his entire life.

jerseyhoya wrote:No. She's going to be on the court for 30 years. That's the most important thing. And her confirmation is a lot more popular than Trump is rn.

As for the COVID stimulus, I think despite everything Trump demonstrated about the GOP primary electorate in 2016, there is still an ingrained belief among GOP senators that their base will punish them for overspending. Which is legitimately insane and dumb for any number of reasons. We're already running a ridiculous deficit. The economy needs 6 more months of government stabilization to carry us through until a vaccine. It's very popular. They should have passed it months ago. You'd think they maybe would catch on to the fact that the market goes up every time a deal appears possible and plummets every time it falls apart. The Senate GOP appears likely to get their shit kicked in two weeks from now partially as a result. Whatever they do now is too late to matter politically, but I could see Trump completely losing interest after the election, so doing something while he cares seems important.

Can't wait until the new Congress is seated and if Joe Biden wins to then hear endlessly about record deficits and to see the national debt clock broken out again --- is that thing in your parents' garage or what JH?

philliesphhan wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:I think Biden is o run up a ridiculous lead in the traditional blue states, but Trump could win close races in a bunch of swing and red states and win this thing. I now Biden is up 10% nationally, but a lot of that lead is in blue states where Trump is EXTREMELY unpopular, much more so then he was in 2016. I think if Trump does win it, it will be with the biggest popular deficit in history.

I don't think we can count of PA. Need AZ + WI + NE2/ME2 or some other combination. Tough to win FL with that FL Gov. Certainly can't count on any of the red states Biden is currently narrowly leading.

I'm just concerned that 10.7 lead is misleading given where it comes from.

I wouldn't even look at the national. But I will do my best here to quell your fears about this.

For starters, if he just flips PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he wins. He doesn't need anything else because, having the states Hillary also won, puts him over 270. Barely, but it does do so.

Biden is currently up 7.3 in WI, 6.3 in PA, and 8.0 in Michigan.

He's also up 3.6 in Florida, 3.9 in Arizona, and 3.2 in NC. Too close for comfort? Well, how about these states from Trump's point of view:

Georgia is currently a toss-up at roughly 0.8 for Biden. Trump won it by 5 in 2016.
Ohio is also a toss-up with 0.1 lead for Trump. He won it by 8.1 (!) in 2016.
Iowa is another toss-up with 0.2 for Biden. Trump won this by 9.4 (!!!) in 2016.
Texas 1.2 for Trump. He won by 9 in 2016.

Then there are states like Minnesota and New Hampshire which Clinton won, but not by much.
1.5 for Clinton in Minnesota in 2016, and Biden is up 7.2
0.37 (!) for Clinton in New Hampshire, and Biden is up 11.6!!!

So, yes, anything is possible and Trump could pull out an upset in some swing states by a last minute surge, but he's got a TON of ground to make up everywhere because places he had comfortable leads last time could easily go the other way.

I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... ction-map/

This is frightening. If you have Trump winning PA the whole map changes. It is wild.

Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

MoBettle wrote:Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

Yeah. I understand why it is doing that, but visually it is a startling thing.

MoBettle wrote:Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

Actually if you flip Michigan only that is the one where the bottom really drops out for Biden.

And importantly the presumption of Biden's big advantage is that he is more likely than not to win FL.

Give FL to Trump and the race is effectively a toss up.

Trump is going to win.

CalvinBall wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

Yeah. I understand why it is doing that, but visually it is a startling thing.

Yup, hopefully it doesn’t come down to that with the delays in counting being a nightmare. Florida is supposed to be better at counting now right? Feel like it breaking for Biden early is the best shot at this being relatively quickly wrapped up.

Four years ago today (that is, two weeks prior to Election Day), Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 5.2 points in the Pennsylvania RealClearPolitics average. That means his climb that year was steeper (36% steeper, to be precise) and greater than his needed climb this year.

Trump people are a cult and they are everywhere.

MoBettle wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Because if trump wins PA there’s probably been a larger shift or polling error in similar states. They also have Biden at an 87% chance of winning PA and trump hasn’t led in a poll that they recognize since July.

Yeah. I understand why it is doing that, but visually it is a startling thing.

Yup, hopefully it doesn’t come down to that with the delays in counting being a nightmare. Florida is supposed to be better at counting now right? Feel like it breaking for Biden early is the best shot at this being relatively quickly wrapped up.

If you simply click that Biden wins ME, NH, and NV his chances for winning overall shoot up to 97.

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

slugsrbad wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:I agree with MB - the big fear has to be a 2016 style victory. People seem to forget, in the noise of Trump having lost the popular vote by nearly 3M votes and nearly 2 percentage points, that his electoral college victory was relatively robust. If Biden does not flip states I and everyone should have reason to be dubious about his flipping - FL that broke right while almost the entire rest of the country broke left in 2018, AZ that hasn't voted blue since the 90s and has only 11 EVs anyway and thus is not enough to turn the thing around without some "help," NC that has voted blue once in a wave election year in recent memory, GA which is even more like that than NC, IA that has loads of evangelicals to whom Trump will be a hero for flipping the court for Roe v. Wade, OH that has way more SW PA in it than SE PA - Biden MUST sweep all of PA, MI, and WI. If Trump keeps his 2016 states outside of those three AND wins any one of those three, he wins. MI and PA have embattled Democratic governors and large populations of extremely motivated angry white people. Either of those states plus his other 2016 states outside of WI, PA, and MI give him a win. If he only holds WI out of those three, and everywhere else from 2016, that's a tie, and a Trump win. If he holds all three (granted unlikely), he can lose AZ and win. He can lose AZ and WI if he holds PA and MI. He can lose PA, WI, and MI if he picks up NV and NH (not impossible by any stretch) and holds everywhere else - that is 270 and a win.

His path isn't great but it is entirely plausible.

I understand most of your pessimistic/this isn't over yet logic, but 2016 was not a relatively robust Electoral College win for President Trump. Since 1980 there have only been three elections decided by under 100 electors: 2000 (5), 2004 (35), and 2016 (77). President Trump won the election by barely scraping by in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

What I mean is that despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by an almost unimaginable margin for someone who won the election, he still has significant margin for error, in that he need only hold the states he own, most of which have a long tradition of voting red, and win only ONE of the three "close" states he won in 2016, and that's assuming he flips no state that Clinton won - which the 538 forecast gives him a 1-in-4 shot of doing.

GA, OH, NC, and PA are all trending the wrong way in recent polling. FL is just more of a red state than it is a blue one, and instructive is this: the last time it failed to vote for the incumbent candidate or the eventual winner of the presidency (in non-incumbent years) was 1980, when it voted with Reagan, who won, but who was challenging the incumbent president. And of course he was a Republican. For a Dem to do this, since the post-Civil Rights era realignment of the parties, it took Carter going up against a corrupt administration and the guy who had pardoned fucking Nixon.

Florida will go for Trump. That makes this election a toss up where only one state of three that he has already won needs to stay red for him to win.

There will be a HUGE turnout for Trump on election day. The fucking trump parade in Bucks County on Saturday told me just how bad and ugly this will be. Biden people want Trump out, but Trump people are having their very identities and souls threatened. They will be out with bells on and guns in hand, probably, on Election Day, in enormous numbers.

He's going to win, I'll say 52-48 in the negative in the popular vote, but 288-250 in the EC: he loses AZ, but holds PA, WI, and NC. I could even see him losing NC in this scenario (since NC is more like VA), and he'd still win.

Probably not but if thinking about it that way allows you to prepare for the possibility that’s fine.