Monkeyboy wrote:

Bucky wrote:it was either wapo or nyt who had an article the other day saying current thinking is that PA is the key. that is, he who wins PA wins the whole thing.

538 had a similar article. Trump's chance of winning goes to like 80% if he wins PA.

That doesn't feel quite right because if Biden wins WI and MI, even if he loses PA, he needs only one of any of the following to win if he holds all the Hillary states:

AZ, FL, NC, OH

He is currently at 1-in-2 or better in all of these states according to 538.

I realize if he loses PA he almost certainly loses OH, and it is more likely that he loses WI and MI, but still...

Biden can actually win with a re-alignment where states with high percentages of college educated whites plus blacks, Latinos, and other minorities plus advanced senior citizens turn blue and older, whiter rust belt states turn red.

That is, Hillary states + FL and AZ or NC = Biden win

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

Bucky wrote:it was either wapo or nyt who had an article the other day saying current thinking is that PA is the key. that is, he who wins PA wins the whole thing.

538 had a similar article. Trump's chance of winning goes to like 80% if he wins PA.

That doesn't feel quite right because if Biden wins WI and MI, even if he loses PA, he needs only one of any of the following to win if he holds all the Hillary states:

AZ, FL, NC, OH

He is currently at 1-in-2 or better in all of these states according to 538.

I realize if he loses PA he almost certainly loses OH, and it is more likely that he loses WI and MI, but still...

Biden can actually win with a re-alignment where states with high percentages of college educated whites plus blacks, Latinos, and other minorities plus advanced senior citizens turn blue and older, whiter rust belt states turn red.

That is, Hillary states + FL and AZ or NC = Biden win

Here is the link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... -election/

Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state.1 (That’s what happens when you take one of the most evenly divided states in the union and give it 20 electoral votes.) In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.

The article is from 3 weeks ago, so maybe things have changed a bit.

I am currently convinced of two things regarding the election:

#1 - Trump can only win the election if he and the GOP maneuver to steal the election, and
#2 - Trump and the GOP will absolutely do whatever is necessary to steal the election.

One thing about polls today compared to the 2016 polls (and I just spent some time with the PA polls) is that Biden is over 50% in most of the PA polls I've seen. In 2016, though HRC had a lead in most polls (though in late Oct here lead in PA was like 2-3%) she never broke 50%. This makes a difference, because there aren't enough undecided voters (or alleged shy Trump voters) to make a difference in the outcome.

TenuredVulture wrote:One thing about polls today compared to the 2016 polls (and I just spent some time with the PA polls) is that Biden is over 50% in most of the PA polls I've seen. In 2016, though HRC had a lead in most polls (though in late Oct here lead in PA was like 2-3%) she never broke 50%. This makes a difference, because there aren't enough undecided voters (or alleged shy Trump voters) to make a difference in the outcome.

And third party, including Kanye West write-ins, won't get the spoiler numbers Jill Stein had in 2016

Belarus providing a demonstration for Kremlin Padawan Trump on how to do the do by authorizing deadly force against protesters. They also rolled up over 700 people. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/europe/b ... index.html

traderdave wrote:I am currently convinced of two things regarding the election:

#1 - Trump can only win the election if he and the GOP maneuver to steal the election, and
#2 - Trump and the GOP will absolutely do whatever is necessary to steal the election.

Of this I have little doubt. However, you cannot steal a blowout victory when your man is on the wrong end of the stick. Were this 2016, it would be a different story. It’s not going to be remotely close.

In Russia related news, Putin is holed up in a bunker isolating as COVID rages there. But the commie vaccine...

Is it just me or is it weird that to pump up the crowd at the FL Trump rally includes saying the pledge to the flag?

thephan wrote:Is it just me or is it weird that to pump up the crowd at the FL Trump rally includes saying the pledge to the flag?

You never see that at one of Biden's socialist rallies. Proves who the real americans support.

thephan wrote:Is it just me or is it weird that to pump up the crowd at the FL Trump rally includes saying the pledge to the flag?

Well, considering they don’t understand what the flag stands for...yes.

it's nationalism 101. i bet people yelled the 'under god' part, too, just like "OH" during the national anthem at camden yards

Big surprise that the Foxxconn deal that Trump took credit for is sinking. They were just denied tax credits because they have consistently failed to meet economic development promises. I do wonder why this has not been pulled out to take some jabs at Trump. The Indiana thing was destine to fail, and did so quickly. I am not sure anyone with some knowledge ever really believed the Wisconsin deal either, but this just piles up on his record as a failed businessman.

thephan wrote:Big surprise that the Foxxconn deal that Trump took credit for is sinking. They were just denied tax credits because they have consistently failed to meet economic development promises. I do wonder why this has not been pulled out to take some jabs at Trump. The Indiana thing was destine to fail, and did so quickly. I am not sure anyone with some knowledge ever really believed the Wisconsin deal either, but this just piles up on his record as a failed businessman.

Good reply all episode on this
https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/wbhjwd