momadance wrote:

1 wrote:A race of people practically extinct from doing things smart people don’t do?

He said that he was once a Lizard too.

A bleedin heart lizard

Joe will get the most votes in Florida but the shenanigans Trump and DeSantis will pull in this state to try to steal it for Trump from November 4 onward will be a sight to behold.

Fetterman’s wife went to Aldi yesterday afternoon and some woman recognized her and went off on a racist rant calling her the n word.

https://apple.news/A81B_VzYsTS-A98Dc1Y8FYg

Bill McNeal wrote:Fetterman’s wife went to Aldi yesterday afternoon and some woman recognized her and went off on a racist rant calling her the n word.

https://apple.news/A81B_VzYsTS-A98Dc1Y8FYg

Does that woman gum her cousin with that mouth?

New York Times polls out at 1:00 PM:

Michigan:
Biden 48
Trump 40

Wisconsin:
Biden 51
Trump 41

One thing consistent in polls for many weeks now is that Trump can't seem to get out of lower 40's in many states

One troubling sign is that NY Times now has Michigan Senate race close with

PETERS 43
JAMES 42

Dems cannot afford to lose that seat as well as Alabama is they plan on winning control

threecount wrote:One troubling sign is that NY Times now has Michigan Senate race close with

PETERS 43
JAMES 42

Dems cannot afford to lose that seat as well as Alabama is they plan on winning control

Will be some world where Biden carries the state by 8 but the Senate incumbent loses that same state.

has there been any research done on voters switching parties and surge of voter registration of a certain party and how it reflects on actual results? 2016 trump had a large surge of registered voters to help him win by razor thin margins in lots of states. I don't know if the same iwll happen again but in FL and PA there's been more republican energy with respect to switching parties from something to republican(a net positive on the year so far for republicans). How is something like this captured in polling? (even with this i'm not sure trump is capable of getting enough voters out for him in lots of states).

i found this article that in hindsight looks really bad
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... ns-at-all/

Biden is still only -200 at Bovada. That's insane to me. Who is still betting on Trump at +170?

jerseyhoya wrote:Biden is still only -200 at Bovada. That's insane to me. Who is still betting on Trump at +170?

Eric? He may need the money

jerseyhoya wrote:Biden is still only -200 at Bovada. That's insane to me.

Does he need to actually take office?

traderdave wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:Fetterman’s wife went to Aldi yesterday afternoon and some woman recognized her and went off on a racist rant calling her the n word.

https://apple.news/A81B_VzYsTS-A98Dc1Y8FYg

Does that woman gum her cousin with that mouth?

I can only hope to be as politically astute as that woman, recognizing the wife of the Lieutenant Governor, when I can't even name offhand my own state's LG.

(Oh, it's Sheila Oliver)

maybe it's my negativity but still feels like trump wins but loses by like 15m votes and we all are mad but that's the end of that

Grotewold wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Biden is still only -200 at Bovada. That's insane to me.

Does he need to actually take office?

I don't think so. Might drag out a bit though, I guess.

z ipper wrote:maybe it's my negativity but still feels like trump wins but loses by like 15m votes and we all are mad but that's the end of that

That's just the PTSD from 2016 talking.

Trump could still "win" but it would be due to funny business such as slow rolling the counting of mailed-in ballots so that they are not all recorded by the EC safe harbor deadline or, even worse, a GOP state legislature or two appointing Trump electors despite Biden winning the popular vote in those states.

This is shaping up to be a landslide victory, so I am fairly confident that Biden will assume office in January, regardless of how much shit Trump and Co. throws at the wall between 11/4 and 12/8.

Lots of indications at the California GOP has put out fake ballot drop boxes. The chairman, and I'm not sure if it is a regional chairman or the California chairman, tweeted out that he can send you locations of drop boxes if you direct message him. Problem is that this is illegal, especially since they slapped the word official on these things, and they've delivered them to places like churches and other places. When asked, the CAGOP said what's the matter with collecting ballots from friends and parishioners? They went on to say its better than handing your ballot over to a stranger at your door. Both of those things happen to be illegal for what it's worth.

Of course there's lots of alarm bells that go off when you see this kind of stuff about voter fraud. Who's to say that these ballots aren't picked through in some way shape or form and only the ballot of choice goes in? It's all bad. I guess maybe this is what the fringe GOP guys have been talking about as far as voter fraud.

jamiethekiller wrote:don't ruin a good narrative jh

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5

Our analysis suggests that viral shedding may begin 5 to 6 days before the appearance of the first symptoms. After symptom onset, viral loads decreased monotonically, consistent with two recent studies8,9. Another study from Wuhan reported that virus was detected for a median of 20 days (up to 37 days among survivors) after symptom onset10, but infectiousness may decline significantly 8 days after symptom onset, as live virus could no longer be cultured (according to Wölfel and colleagues11). Together, these results support our findings that the infectiousness profile may more closely resemble that of influenza than of SARS (Fig. 1a), although we did not have data on viral shedding before symptom onset6,12. Our results are also supported by reports of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission13,14.

Not trying to be rude, but I don't give a shit what they say is probably the case. You don't risk the health and lives of people at the top of government unless it is 100% certain there is no real risk. The hearing could go on without him. Imagine what could happen with a major outbreak in the Senate. It's fucking stupid.

We already have a gov't gutted by TRump's unwillingness to fill vacancies (you're welcome, Putin) and all the rats who have abandoned ship. We can't afford a major outbreak in one of the chambers.

06hawkalum wrote:

z ipper wrote:maybe it's my negativity but still feels like trump wins but loses by like 15m votes and we all are mad but that's the end of that

That's just the PTSD from 2016 talking.

Trump could still "win" but it would be due to funny business such as slow rolling the counting of mailed-in ballots so that they are not all recorded by the EC safe harbor deadline or, even worse, a GOP state legislature or two appointing Trump electors despite Biden winning the popular vote in those states.

This is shaping up to be a landslide victory, so I am fairly confident that Biden will assume office in January, regardless of how much shit Trump and Co. throws at the wall between 11/4 and 12/8.

Right now I am worried about the period from 10/12 to 11/3.

thephan wrote:Lots of indications at the California GOP has put out fake ballot drop boxes. The chairman, and I'm not sure if it is a regional chairman or the California chairman, tweeted out that he can send you locations of drop boxes if you direct message him. Problem is that this is illegal, especially since they slapped the word official on these things, and they've delivered them to places like churches and other places. When asked, the CAGOP said what's the matter with collecting ballots from friends and parishioners? They went on to say its better than handing your ballot over to a stranger at your door. Both of those things happen to be illegal for what it's worth.

Of course there's lots of alarm bells that go off when you see this kind of stuff about voter fraud. Who's to say that these ballots aren't picked through in some way shape or form and only the ballot of choice goes in? It's all bad. I guess maybe this is what the fringe GOP guys have been talking about as far as voter fraud.

lol no amount of voter fraud can undo the GOP total wipeout in CA.

Bucky wrote:it was either wapo or nyt who had an article the other day saying current thinking is that PA is the key. that is, he who wins PA wins the whole thing.

538 had a similar article. Trump's chance of winning goes to like 80% if he wins PA.

But that's assuming everything is fair. If they cheat to win PA, but the polls are bad enough that they lose FL or OH or GA or whatever, then PA doesn't mean as much. So Trump needs to steal PA, and then hope he wins what he should win. That's looking harder now with so many other states in play