Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Sat Sep 19, 2020 19:28:20

Greenfield +3 over Ernst

Likely voters

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Monkeyboy » Sat Sep 19, 2020 19:50:46

06hawkalum wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
06hawkalum wrote:I have been watching a couple of excellent 20+ hour docs on the 20th Century in the past month:

The Cold War (CNN)

The People's Century (BBC/PBS)

Both aired in the late 90s and are available on YouTube.

I know some of you are sick of me trying to find a reason to be grateful for being alive in 2020, but here goes:

I would take enduring a lifetime of 2020s over a single day of trench warfare during WWI. Watching the vets describe their experiences really drives home what constitutes true hell on earth and gives a man a sense of perspective.


I think the concern is we are going down the type of road that leads to those things and maybe this time we're the Germans. Fascism pokes its head up once in a while and the problem I see with it happening in our modern world is the technology that will allow it to spread and keep down the masses that might resist. It's always good to look back at history to learn lessons but you have to think of those lessons in terms of the modern world. In parts of China, every nook and cranny is on camera and those cameras have face recognition. Jay walk and you get a fine sent to your WeChat account within minutes. What could that technology do in a fascist state with citizens that try to resist?

We are entering a different world and who we are will be determined in the next decade or two as the technology goes off the charts. We need to be in the right place as a democracy to handle it without going down a dark path. Instead, we have a russian troll in charge, locking in anti-democratic principles that will be extremely hard to undo. Only a fool would wave their hands and say it's insignificant or just another bump in history.

Who will push back against the tyrants this time when the US, China, and Russia are all on one side? South america is dominated by Brazil which has another fascist in charge. China has its tentacles all through Asia and Africa. Good luck getting people in Asia to join the resistance. Europe is the only hope and even they have fascists in their midst, and Europe can't take on the world.


I appreciate your perspective. Keep in mind that over the course of human history, democracy is rarely the prevailing form of goverance, so perhaps we are in the end days of this second wave that started in the 18th Century. I sure as hell hope not.


That's not much comfort, particularly since the technological advances will make it difficult to resist authoritarianism. Hard to get in a group long enough storm the Bastille when you can't leave the house without being tracked. China is already doing this now to keep crowds under a certain amount. People can't assemble in larger groups there. And Trump and company has turned a not insignificant part of the population into armed militia ready to do his bidding.

My one hope is that our intelligence apparatus is still functioning and hasn't been completely compromised. I think that's probably the case as I think most people who go into that work are patriotic at their core. If things are still functioning, I think we'll see them or their effects before this is over.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Sat Sep 19, 2020 20:16:00

The Savior wrote:Greenfield +3 over Ernst

Likely voters

Des Moines Register

It's wild for all the love she gets, Selzer still doesn't weight by education

It'll be interesting to see what the Prez number is there

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby threecount » Sat Sep 19, 2020 20:44:29

thephan wrote:The White House and the pharmaceutical industry were nearing a major deal to lower drug prices. Then the administration demanded that $100 cash cards be sent to millions of seniors before the election — and the industry balked. - NYT


not only that but the administration wanted them to be called "Trump Cards" smh

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby thephan » Sat Sep 19, 2020 20:55:33

Curious to see what happens down town soon when Don and Mitch make their play.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby ReadingPhilly » Sat Sep 19, 2020 21:45:27


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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Sat Sep 19, 2020 22:16:21

In that Ernst Senate poll (which May put Iowa in play for Biden)

- greenfield +15% with independents
- 10% of those who voted for Trump are voting for greenfield

If this holds, and money pours in to help her, I think we realistically have a shot at adding a senate seat in AZ, CO, NC, IA and ME. Maybe even IA and SC.

Worst case, we lose a SC judge but flip the senate. Trump wouldn’t waste 4 years being the bad guy. He’d probably turn blue.

More likely case, we flip senate and win the WH. And from there, we full fucking court press. Add states. Add judges. Makes it impossible for Rs to regain any power without changing their racist, xenophobic agenda.

Best case, Mitch doesn’t vote. We win the senate and WH. And we do all the full fucking press shit anyway.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby heyeaglefn » Sat Sep 19, 2020 22:42:30

I'm not confident in flipping the senate if they hold the nomination until after the election but it sounds like they may rush it before then which I think helps everything else.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby threecount » Sat Sep 19, 2020 22:54:29

The Savior wrote:In that Ernst Senate poll (which May put Iowa in play for Biden)

- greenfield +15% with independents
- 10% of those who voted for Trump are voting for greenfield

If this holds, and money pours in to help her, I think we realistically have a shot at adding a senate seat in AZ, CO, NC, IA and ME. Maybe even IA and SC.

Worst case, we lose a SC judge but flip the senate. Trump wouldn’t waste 4 years being the bad guy. He’d probably turn blue.

More likely case, we flip senate and win the WH. And from there, we full #$!&@ court press. Add states. Add judges. Makes it impossible for Rs to regain any power without changing their racist, xenophobic agenda.

Best case, Mitch doesn’t vote. We win the senate and WH. And we do all the full #$!&@ press #$!&@ anyway.


Can Senate Dems/House make Puerto Rico a state or does it need ratification from the other states?

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby CalvinBall » Sat Sep 19, 2020 23:33:43

DC would be first on the list imo. Not sure PR wants to be a state. Also, not sure it automatically means two D Senators. That's not a reason for them to not be a state though.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Sat Sep 19, 2020 23:47:17

I've evolved a bit on DC statehood and don't think it's a terrible idea. Am not actively agitating for it because I've spent enough of my life being represented by idiots in the Senate and am happy not to be right now. But it probably makes sense.

PR is much more complicated, I think. DC residents want statehood. With Puerto Rico there's status quo vs. statehood vs. independence and it's much less clear what the people who actually live there have as their priority.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Sun Sep 20, 2020 00:05:49

The Savior wrote:Add judges.

I think expanding the Supreme Court would be really bad for America. So that's my prior.

I am kind of curious on the best positive cases from folks on what adding justices looks like and what the argument is and what the number is and how this helps anything.

I guess I'm very stuck on the idea that the Dems, if they add two seats, are looking at a world where John Roberts is once again the median justice. So they've nuked everything to have that. Congrats?

And if they try to add more than two justices they're going to a level that's utterly indefensible by what's happened in the preamble to justify the change.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby philliesphhan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 02:49:37

Everything the Republicans have done under Trump has been utterly indefensible so finally a taste of their own medicine?
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Monkeyboy » Sun Sep 20, 2020 03:45:19

Yeh, you don't pussy foot around with cancer. You cut it out, irradiate it, and poison it. Every damn republican in congress needs to be a target with the exception of Romney and maybe one or two others. This isn't politics coming from the right, it's a coup against democracy.

And I'm kidding about this part, but I feel like every registered republican in the country should be forced to take a basics civics course.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby thephan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 06:20:49

USDA has $14B to send out to farmers. Apparently it’s been hard for them to sell their crops during Covid. You know people aren’t eating anymore. Maybe, just maybe, ther are some facts around that the tariffs and trade war have as much to do with it as does Covid.

https://wtop.com/national/2020/09/usda- ... rom-virus/

“In April the administration rolled out a $19 billion program, most of which was in the form of direct farm payments. That followed $28 billion the federal government gave farmers to compensate for two years of disruptions caused by Trump’s tariff battles with trading partners.”

So that is $61B this year.

Farmers can start applying Monday for the money.

#VoteBuyingSeason
yawn

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby thephan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 06:36:23

Getting Mark Kelly and has become a priority. Apparently can be seated by November 30.

https://wtop.com/national/2020/09/arizo ... w-justice/
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby thephan » Sun Sep 20, 2020 06:45:32

I’ve been looking for this morning, news about Trump supporters showing up where those long lines that made national news in Fairfax county. At the Fairfax government center they’ve been doing early voting, and those are the lines as seen on TV, and also where Trump supporters came out to harass these voters. Blocking entrances, driving through the parking lot shouting at people and blaring their horns while waving their Trump flags, filling spaces, and in general trying to disrupt things. This mob mentality is beyond ridiculous.

https://bluevirginia.us/2020/09/fairfax ... ns-blaring

I heard it on the local news station last night, but I can only find the New York Times article
yawn

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Sun Sep 20, 2020 07:02:57

jerseyhoya wrote:
The Savior wrote:Add judges.

I think expanding the Supreme Court would be really bad for America. So that's my prior.

I am kind of curious on the best positive cases from folks on what adding justices looks like and what the argument is and what the number is and how this helps anything.

I guess I'm very stuck on the idea that the Dems, if they add two seats, are looking at a world where John Roberts is once again the median justice. So they've nuked everything to have that. Congrats?

And if they try to add more than two justices they're going to a level that's utterly indefensible by what's happened in the preamble to justify the change.


This is about power. Has been ever since 2000. Simple as that. All other justifications are secondary.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Sun Sep 20, 2020 07:03:34

Bullock tied in ND
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby CalvinBall » Sun Sep 20, 2020 07:26:58

The Savior wrote:Bullock tied in ND

He's gonna need some votes in Montana if he hopes to win though.

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