Uncle Milty wrote:

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:Fivethirtyeight has an analysis of PA today as its feature article, and it's just what I've been on about.

Combine that with their OTHER article, which points out that polls are good everywhere for Biden EXCEPT Florida, and you can expect a Trump victory.

You are being a pessimist, although you probably feel you are being a realist. Obviously those are not mutually exclusive.

Biden can win while losing PA and FL. He would need to win only one of the following in that scenario: OH, NC, or all of ME’s electoral votes.

Clearly, seven weeks to Election Day Biden remains the front-runner to win the EC as long as there is no funny business involved.

Also, I stand by earlier post. Biden will win PA. If any of you doubters would like to make a friendly wager over the outcome please PM me.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

Wolfgang622 wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:Fivethirtyeight has an analysis of PA today as its feature article, and it's just what I've been on about.

Combine that with their OTHER article, which points out that polls are good everywhere for Biden EXCEPT Florida, and you can expect a Trump victory.

You are being a pessimist, although you probably feel you are being a realist. Obviously those are not mutually exclusive.

Biden can win while losing PA and FL. He would need to win only one of the following in that scenario: OH, NC, or all of ME’s electoral votes.

Clearly, seven weeks to Election Day Biden remains the front-runner to win the EC as long as there is no funny business involved.

Also, I stand by earlier post. Biden will win PA. If any of you doubters would like to make a friendly wager over the outcome please PM me.

OH is more Pennsylvania Red than PA is PA Red, NC is the siren song of this election, and why should the handful of people in that one ME district that voted Trump before suddenly abandon him now when his supporters have nearly a religious devotion to the man? Trump didn't eke out a victory in ME-2, he won by 10 points.

CalvinBall wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:Fivethirtyeight has an analysis of PA today as its feature article, and it's just what I've been on about.

Combine that with their OTHER article, which points out that polls are good everywhere for Biden EXCEPT Florida, and you can expect a Trump victory.

You are being a pessimist, although you probably feel you are being a realist. Obviously those are not mutually exclusive.

Biden can win while losing PA and FL. He would need to win only one of the following in that scenario: OH, NC, or all of ME’s electoral votes.

Clearly, seven weeks to Election Day Biden remains the front-runner to win the EC as long as there is no funny business involved.

Also, I stand by earlier post. Biden will win PA. If any of you doubters would like to make a friendly wager over the outcome please PM me.

OH is more Pennsylvania Red than PA is PA Red, NC is the siren song of this election, and why should the handful of people in that one ME district that voted Trump before suddenly abandon him now when his supporters have nearly a religious devotion to the man? Trump didn't eke out a victory in ME-2, he won by 10 points.

Maine 2 is pretty old and white. From my understanding they are very swingy voters too, generally. So that is why. Additionally, there have been good polls for the D congressional candidate there, including one recent good one for Biden.

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

It really does seem like you are still traumatized by the 2016 election and are choosing to believe that Trump will win again just so that:

A. You won’t be crushed again if Trump wins.

B. You will be pleasantly surprised if Biden wins.

I guess from a psychological perspective, convincing yourself that “this time isn’t different” is a win-win for you.

This time is different though. Biden is a stronger candidate than Hillary, with all of her positives and few of her negatives.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

It really does seem like you are still traumatized by the 2016 election and are choosing to believe that Trump will win again just so that:

A. You won’t be crushed again if Trump wins.

B. You will be pleasantly surprised if Biden wins.

I guess from a psychological perspective, convincing yourself that “this time isn’t different” is a win-win for you.

This time is different though. Biden is a stronger candidate than Hillary, with all of her positives and few of her negatives.

I won't deny that is part of my motivation but also I just don't Trump's people voting for someone else and/or not showing up. I think he will pick up more angry white people because of COVID, not lose them.

Does Biden make up the difference by not being Hillary? Maybe. At best.

slugsrbad wrote:If Joe Biden loses Pennsylvania, I think he loses other states he should have held onto... however, if he does lose FL and PA he only needs Arizona and NE-2 to win 270-268. He is polling well in both locations.

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

It really does seem like you are still traumatized by the 2016 election and are choosing to believe that Trump will win again just so that:

A. You won’t be crushed again if Trump wins.

B. You will be pleasantly surprised if Biden wins.

I guess from a psychological perspective, convincing yourself that “this time isn’t different” is a win-win for you.

This time is different though. Biden is a stronger candidate than Hillary, with all of her positives and few of her negatives.

I won't deny that is part of my motivation but also I just don't Trump's people voting for someone else and/or not showing up. I think he will pick up more angry white people because of COVID, not lose them.

Does Biden make up the difference by not being Hillary? Maybe. At best.

Considering that Hillary lost the EC by 55,000 votes and Trump has done nothing but shit the bed for the past four years (probably literally as well as figuratively, based on the fact he wears adult diapers) I think “not being Hillary” will indeed be more than enough. I also acknowledge that Trump still stands a very real chance to win and I am also prepared for that outcome.

Phred wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

It really does seem like you are still traumatized by the 2016 election and are choosing to believe that Trump will win again just so that:

A. You won’t be crushed again if Trump wins.

B. You will be pleasantly surprised if Biden wins.

I guess from a psychological perspective, convincing yourself that “this time isn’t different” is a win-win for you.

This time is different though. Biden is a stronger candidate than Hillary, with all of her positives and few of her negatives.

I won't deny that is part of my motivation but also I just don't Trump's people voting for someone else and/or not showing up. I think he will pick up more angry white people because of COVID, not lose them.

Does Biden make up the difference by not being Hillary? Maybe. At best.

Considering that Hillary lost the EC by 55,000 votes and Trump has done nothing but shit the bed for the past four years (probably literally as well as figuratively, based on the fact he wears adult diapers) I think “not being Hillary” will indeed be more than enough. I also acknowledge that Trump still stands a very real chance to win and I am also prepared for that outcome.

How have you prepared for that outcome? Bombshelter? Dual citizenship? Overseas house? Therapist and liquor store on speed-dial?

thephan wrote:I've already resigned myself to 8 more years then a peaceful transition to Ivankna (but the whackos like Don Jr better people tell me)

06hawkalum wrote:

thephan wrote:I've already resigned myself to 8 more years then a peaceful transition to Ivankna (but the whackos like Don Jr better people tell me)

At least Ivanka is brighter than her father!

momadance wrote:Local idiot, Jim Cramer, interviews "Crazy Nancy"

https://twitter.com/i/status/1305890820659216384