jamiethekiller wrote:

Bucky wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:As near as I can tell, none of the polls in the RCP average (which has Biden ahead by 7.5%) were conducted in time to fully absorb the revelations about Covid in the Woodward book.

like it matters

Over 50% of the deaths in america are from LTC and ~80% are over 65. I'll call this the invisible population for lack of a better phrase.

From 0 to 65 over 50% of the people that have passed away are hispanic or african american. So if 0 to 65 is half white, then that leaves ~15k white people in the general population that have died.

If I take the assumption that his voting base probably hasn't had much interaction with LTC, then his voting base really has only been adversely affected by lockdowns and not seen anything substantial in the way of the virus. Even more so if they're rural voters where the virus really hasn't had an impact.

I haven't listened to the woodward files or whatever, but if they're 'dont want panic' and 'its not bad' I think his base would largely agree and would only coalesce Republicans more, imo.

“I was very blinded. I listened to the evangelicals. I listened to the preachers and the pastors that were telling us that he was so wonderful — and that’s why I’m so dismayed now,” said Christman-Epting, who attended college but did not graduate. “And they’re continuing to support him. And it’s like, don’t you see? Can’t you see?”

Her views on many issues, including abortion, have evolved since 2016, and this fall she plans to vote for Biden. She said this political shift has deepened her faith, not weakened it.

“I have lost a son. I’ve lost both my parents, I’ve lost several best friends in their 40s. . . . What really attracts me to Biden is his compassion,” Christman-Epting said. “He’s lost two children. He’s lost his first wife. He has a heart, while I don’t feel Trump does. And that’s what really turned me.”

TenuredVulture wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:

Bucky wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:As near as I can tell, none of the polls in the RCP average (which has Biden ahead by 7.5%) were conducted in time to fully absorb the revelations about Covid in the Woodward book.

like it matters

Over 50% of the deaths in america are from LTC and ~80% are over 65. I'll call this the invisible population for lack of a better phrase.

From 0 to 65 over 50% of the people that have passed away are hispanic or african american. So if 0 to 65 is half white, then that leaves ~15k white people in the general population that have died.

If I take the assumption that his voting base probably hasn't had much interaction with LTC, then his voting base really has only been adversely affected by lockdowns and not seen anything substantial in the way of the virus. Even more so if they're rural voters where the virus really hasn't had an impact.

I haven't listened to the woodward files or whatever, but if they're 'dont want panic' and 'its not bad' I think his base would largely agree and would only coalesce Republicans more, imo.

He's not losing his base, since that's what base means. But his apparent indifference to the virus I don't think has much to do with who is dying. It has to do with the suburban families who would like their children to be back in school safely, and all the people who have had their lives substantially disrupted. And I'd imagine that on the margins, as people get sick doing normal things like eating in restaurants because they trusted Trump, he's going to lose some of that marginal support as well.

It's kind of weird that you focus on the deaths.

06hawkalum wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

jamiethekiller wrote:

Bucky wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:As near as I can tell, none of the polls in the RCP average (which has Biden ahead by 7.5%) were conducted in time to fully absorb the revelations about Covid in the Woodward book.

like it matters

Over 50% of the deaths in america are from LTC and ~80% are over 65. I'll call this the invisible population for lack of a better phrase.

From 0 to 65 over 50% of the people that have passed away are hispanic or african american. So if 0 to 65 is half white, then that leaves ~15k white people in the general population that have died.

If I take the assumption that his voting base probably hasn't had much interaction with LTC, then his voting base really has only been adversely affected by lockdowns and not seen anything substantial in the way of the virus. Even more so if they're rural voters where the virus really hasn't had an impact.

I haven't listened to the woodward files or whatever, but if they're 'dont want panic' and 'its not bad' I think his base would largely agree and would only coalesce Republicans more, imo.

He's not losing his base, since that's what base means. But his apparent indifference to the virus I don't think has much to do with who is dying. It has to do with the suburban families who would like their children to be back in school safely, and all the people who have had their lives substantially disrupted. And I'd imagine that on the margins, as people get sick doing normal things like eating in restaurants because they trusted Trump, he's going to lose some of that marginal support as well.

It's kind of weird that you focus on the deaths.

It’s very on brand for JTK and other Q-Anon adjacent folks to fixate on mortality rates rather than the fact that Trump’s handling of COVID effectively cancelled the last 10 months of 2020 in America.

jamiethekiller wrote:

Bucky wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:As near as I can tell, none of the polls in the RCP average (which has Biden ahead by 7.5%) were conducted in time to fully absorb the revelations about Covid in the Woodward book.

like it matters

Over 50% of the deaths in america are from LTC and ~80% are over 65. I'll call this the invisible population for lack of a better phrase.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:there are about five posts a day in here saying some variation of 'it won't make a difference to Trump voters!' including one right there in the nested thread. why give jtk grief just for expounding on why he thinks it won't convert any votes?

JUburton wrote:there's strong evidence that trump has lost a ton of ground in the over 65 vote and the white suburban vote. ground he will need to make up by gaining in the whites without college degrees vote in the midwest. its tough sledding. any things that pop up that continue to convince white college suburbanites not to vote for him is good imo.

thephan wrote:

JUburton wrote:there's strong evidence that trump has lost a ton of ground in the over 65 vote and the white suburban vote. ground he will need to make up by gaining in the whites without college degrees vote in the midwest. its tough sledding. any things that pop up that continue to convince white college suburbanites not to vote for him is good imo.

Lost a ton of ground, or put several tons of the over 65 crowd into the ground?

Michael Caputo, 58, the assistant secretary of public affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services, said without evidence that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was harboring a “resistance unit” determined to undermine President Trump.

Mr. Caputo, who has faced criticism for leading efforts to warp C.D.C. weekly bulletins to fit Mr. Trump’s pandemic narrative, suggested that he personally could be in danger.

“You understand that they’re going to have to kill me, and unfortunately, I think that’s where this is going,” Mr. Caputo, a Trump loyalist installed by the White House in April, told followers in a video he hosted live on his personal Facebook page. Mr. Caputo has 5,000 Facebook friends, and the video has been viewed more than 850 times. It has been shared by 44 followers.

“I don’t like being alone in Washington,” he said, describing “shadows on the ceiling in my apartment, there alone, shadows are so long.” He then ran through a series of conspiracy theories, culminating in a prediction that Mr. Trump will win re-election but his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., will refuse to concede.

“And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin,” he said. “The drills that you’ve seen are nothing.” He added: “If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.”

Mr. Caputo’s installation at the agency was a White House move to assert greater control over Alex M. Azar II, who has been Mr. Trump’s secretary of health and human services since 2018. His job is to coordinate the messaging of an 80,000-person department that functions as the center of the American public health bureaucracy and includes the Food and Drug Administration, the C.D.C. and the National Institutes of Health, which lead the government’s pandemic response.