azrider wrote:

thephan wrote:

JUburton wrote:there's strong evidence that trump has lost a ton of ground in the over 65 vote and the white suburban vote. ground he will need to make up by gaining in the whites without college degrees vote in the midwest. its tough sledding. any things that pop up that continue to convince white college suburbanites not to vote for him is good imo.

Lost a ton of ground, or put several tons of the over 65 crowd into the ground?

i worked the phones doing surveys for chilton research, which was a subsidiary of abc news and the washington post. yeah, same company with auto books out of radnor. let me tell you something... right wingers and old right wingers are paranoid and crazy as fuck. so many would curse us out, calling us liberal trash and hang up. you understood who they were voting for or their opinions on whatever matter. HOWEVER, they didn't and could not count towards the poll. the average survey was about 30-50 questions and about 25 or so demographic questions that were very personal. these surveys took about 20 minutes to get through on average. they had to be completed to count. even the people excited to take the survey got burned out after 10 minutes.

i was on the front lines doing this stuff as a kid, but maybe JH could ring in on this, if this is somehow taken into account by those interpreting the polls?

my rule of thumb is add +4/5 to republican numbers.

azrider wrote:PA just turned red today.

Bucky wrote:

azrider wrote:PA just turned red today.

link?

azrider wrote:

Bucky wrote:

azrider wrote:PA just turned red today.

link?

more like a picture unfortunately.

azrider wrote:biden is supposedly up by 10 here. i'm going out and talking to people, getting them to vote and vote biden. i hope you're doing the same.

ReadingPhilly wrote:having a normal one

Michael Caputo, 58, the assistant secretary of public affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services, said without evidence that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was harboring a “resistance unit” determined to undermine President Trump.

Mr. Caputo, who has faced criticism for leading efforts to warp C.D.C. weekly bulletins to fit Mr. Trump’s pandemic narrative, suggested that he personally could be in danger.

“You understand that they’re going to have to kill me, and unfortunately, I think that’s where this is going,” Mr. Caputo, a Trump loyalist installed by the White House in April, told followers in a video he hosted live on his personal Facebook page. Mr. Caputo has 5,000 Facebook friends, and the video has been viewed more than 850 times. It has been shared by 44 followers.

“I don’t like being alone in Washington,” he said, describing “shadows on the ceiling in my apartment, there alone, shadows are so long.” He then ran through a series of conspiracy theories, culminating in a prediction that Mr. Trump will win re-election but his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., will refuse to concede.

“And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin,” he said. “The drills that you’ve seen are nothing.” He added: “If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.”

Mr. Caputo’s installation at the agency was a White House move to assert greater control over Alex M. Azar II, who has been Mr. Trump’s secretary of health and human services since 2018. His job is to coordinate the messaging of an 80,000-person department that functions as the center of the American public health bureaucracy and includes the Food and Drug Administration, the C.D.C. and the National Institutes of Health, which lead the government’s pandemic response.

Uncle Milty wrote:I think that's the best angle for Biden, too. Animated, angry Joe doesn't play as well and is also more prone to gaffs.

azrider wrote:unfortunately very little of covid-19 and the mishandling of it will matter. the democrats don't really have an "i told you so" plan or solution. honestly none of his of his broken promises to his base will matter as well as his ineffective leadership. this election will be a referendum on law and order. that's bad news. PA just turned red today. florida and az is still up for grabs. good news that bloomberg is pumping a ton of money into florida. his ads and team were awesome here in az against trump. unfortunately he wasn't going against trump. still think those ads still have resonated a bit here. not looking good and be very weary of believing the polls. don't drink the kool aid. convince your friends and relatives to go out and vote. and don't be a dick like most of you are to me, who may disagree with some points. don't turn them off and away. find commonalities. don't want to have to hijack democracy to save it after november 3rd.

During a campaign rally in Henderson, Nevada, President Donald Trump led the crowd to chant “lock him up” against former President Barack Obama.

thephan wrote:

During a campaign rally in Henderson, Nevada, President Donald Trump led the crowd to chant “lock him up” against former President Barack Obama.

Can never go wrong with the oldies/dance with the girl who brought you.

Wolfgang622 wrote:Fivethirtyeight has an analysis of PA today as its feature article, and it's just what I've been on about.

Combine that with their OTHER article, which points out that polls are good everywhere for Biden EXCEPT Florida, and you can expect a Trump victory.

Adjusting for demographics and the possibility of change over the next two months, our forecast projects that the Democrat will ultimately carry the Keystone State by 4.6 points.