thephan wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:The 3 minute clip of trump explaining the memory question on the cognitive test is astoundingly embarrassing.

From Sunday or his latest demanding that Biden take one and make the results public? Sort of like Trumps taxes, oh, right, unlike Trump's taxes.

This one. Jump to about 2:20

Uncle Milty wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Why do you think his chances are increasing, Milty?

I recognize the electoral margin is slim regardless of what national polls indicate.

My specific concern is the civil unrest situation right now playing into his hands. While what they're doing is wrong it's also a winning strategy. Trump's base is increasingly energized. Only need a few people in a couple swing states to choose order over chaos for him to win. I wasn't around for 1968 but "law and order" after civil unrest appears like it handed Nixon roughly 8% from his low point to election day.

More generally is the disconnect from reality for both the virus and economy/markets. I don't want to get into specifics here but it also aids his reelection.

Agree with this, but November is still a looooooooooong way away, in the sense of how the civil unrest topic / issue develops. I can't imagine it's going to get any more prevalent than it was in May/June, while I do think COVID can as football gets cancelled, kids aren't back in school, etc.

Uncle Milty wrote:

thephan wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:The 3 minute clip of trump explaining the memory question on the cognitive test is astoundingly embarrassing.

From Sunday or his latest demanding that Biden take one and make the results public? Sort of like Trumps taxes, oh, right, unlike Trump's taxes.

This one. Jump to about 2:20

Sounds like a potential quid pro quo - Biden agrees to take the 'test' in exchange for Trump releasing his taxes.

PSUsarge wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Why do you think his chances are increasing, Milty?

I recognize the electoral margin is slim regardless of what national polls indicate.

My specific concern is the civil unrest situation right now playing into his hands. While what they're doing is wrong it's also a winning strategy. Trump's base is increasingly energized. Only need a few people in a couple swing states to choose order over chaos for him to win. I wasn't around for 1968 but "law and order" after civil unrest appears like it handed Nixon roughly 8% from his low point to election day.

More generally is the disconnect from reality for both the virus and economy/markets. I don't want to get into specifics here but it also aids his reelection.

Agree with this, but November is still a looooooooooong way away, in the sense of how the civil unrest topic / issue develops. I can't imagine it's going to get any more prevalent than it was in May/June, while I do think COVID can as football gets cancelled, kids aren't back in school, etc.

It seems to me if kids are in school but are getting sick that's terrible for Trump, probably worse than schools mostly being on-line.

I'm less sure about the continued civil unrest though--I don't really see it helping Trump, but it might not hurt him much either. On the other hand, if the narrative continues to swing towards "federal law enforcement instigating conflict and violating constitutional rights" then it hurts Trump a bit. It really becomes a battle of the frames. Lots of moms and dads and mayors getting tear gassed isn't a good look for Trump.

Also, I wonder if the post office issue doesn't start to hurt Trump, maybe a lot.

TenuredVulture wrote:It seems to me if kids are in school but are getting sick that's terrible for Trump, probably worse than schools mostly being on-line.

The former is absolutely objectively worse, but if we're talking about impact on the largest number of voters, the latter is a daily reminder of Trump's failings that even a diehard conservative can't really ignore vs. sticking their head in the sand and pretending life is normal with kids back in school.

TenuredVulture wrote:I'm less sure about the continued civil unrest though--I don't really see it helping Trump, but it might not hurt him much either. On the other hand, if the narrative continues to swing towards "federal law enforcement instigating conflict and violating constitutional rights" then it hurts Trump a bit. It really becomes a battle of the frames. Lots of moms and dads and mayors getting tear gassed isn't a good look for Trump.

Agree with you completely here. I just don't see a scenario where people are in the streets protesting the way they were in May/June unless something happens to cause it. It can certainly be argued that between now and November that could happen, but assuming it doesn't (which it hadn't for what, six years since Michael Brown and Freddie Gray), feels like we're past the peak.

Also consider that, by November, late May / early June will be as far behind voters as the final days of the pre-COVID era are for us now, which feel like 100 years ago.

Adrian Perkins announced his bid for US Senate in Louisiana yesterday. DSCC was looking for someone better than what they had. Pretty interesting candidate. Seems pretty well liked. He won't win but Cassidy can't sleep his way through the election now.

Michael Cohen to be freed, sorta.

Qpac poll has Biden up 13 in Florida...

Wow. Wouldn't want to be that yoohoo Yoho.

IMO, the thing that's finally hurting Trump is that people are finally paying attention. People didn't pay much attention to the Russia thing unless they were already strongly in one camp. Everyone is paying attention to the virus and the economy and that's why Trump's numbers are finally dropping. He can't say one thing one day and then something else the next when people are actually paying attention. People aren't that stupid. He got to walk through 2016 with media help the whole way. That won't happen this time.

Listening to Fresh Air right now, they have Mary Trump on, author of the tell-all. Generally I disregard such things, but since I dislike our president so much, I admit to a certain morbid curiosity.

Lot of stuff I have wanted to say lately pertaining to various board conversations and what's out in the culture right now about populism, the economy, and the alignment of the Republican and Democratic parties. I thought this little slap fight was instructive:

During his 8 p.m. show, Carlson reacted to news that Bezos had made $13 billion in one day during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, saying the Amazon founder “has become extremely rich, richer than any man in history, from all of this, including a lot of the suffering.”

“I’m not against wealth accumulation. I’m not against free enterprise but $13 billion in a day suggests something is skewed with the system, no?” Carlson asked a guest.

As Carlson handed off his show at 9 p.m., Hannity responded, “People can make money. They provide goods and services people want, need, and desire? That’s America. It’s called freedom — capitalism — and as long as it’s honest, right? People decide.”

Carlson seemed surprised by his colleague’s comment but didn’t have a chance to respond.

Carlson's schtick, of being a populist who can call Elizabeth Warren's economic plan "patriotic" but also be a xenophobe/white supremacist - effectively making him nearly literally a National Socialist - is dangerous of course because it is a more articulate and effective version of Trump's vague rhetorical posturing, but it also underscores TV's observation that economic left/social right is a far more popular ideological alignment than you might expect if you hang out in mostly cognoscenti/college graduate circles.

What it does even more is reveal, particularly in its manifestation in the Rust Belt/Appalachia, the racist underpinnings of the New Deal. The breaking up of the "solid South," and expanded into the Rust Belt/Appalachia to varying degrees (WV, western PA, OH in areas, MO, KY, TN, WI in areas, MI in areas) reveals this: Trump's brand - which is tied to this program of vaguely National Socialist rhetoric - is strongest there.

I consider myself an FDR Democrat, which makes this all so frustrating, but embarrassing: it is the sad truth that the New Deal that I admire so much had this sort of whites-only tinge to it. In a recent issue, The Economist had a couple of articles I felt tied into this: the Lexington feature, which tackled the question of the tie of white supremacy to Christianity in Southern churches, and this one, about liberal (in the classical sense) failure around racism and the modern consequences. Short version: taking the "liberal" ideology of the rule of law and individual rights as "universals" hides in its first-person-orientation a kind of disregard for the other.

The trick will be to square the circle, and the Democratic Party is in many ways no closer. Perhaps there is a political realignment coming.

finally got to the Person woman man camera TV video, that was something

Monkeyboy wrote:IMO, the thing that's finally hurting Trump is that people are finally paying attention. People didn't pay much attention to the Russia thing unless they were already strongly in one camp. Everyone is paying attention to the virus and the economy and that's why Trump's numbers are finally dropping. He can't say one thing one day and then something else the next when people are actually paying attention. People aren't that stupid. He got to walk through 2016 with media help the whole way. That won't happen this time.

Agree with this 1000%.

He was also running against a tangible enemy in 2016 - "lock her up!" - vs. I just do not believe he can possibly get his base anywhere near as riled up against Biden. On the flip side, the Dem base seemed pretty lukewarm towards HRC but obviously fucking despises Trump and now has to take him seriously.

Voter suppression remains the top concern but I just don't see how Trump can possibly repeat the enthusiasm level and associated turnout, and I would expect an increased turnout against Trump as well.

So far he doesn't seem to be getting a lot of traction peddling the Biden Apocalypse.

People hated Hillary. Nobody hates Joe. I don't think even Trump can bring himself to hate him.

Also, it cannot be understated how big of a deal the lack of rallies will be for Trump and his base. That was such a big thing last time around, it was an event, a movement, a revival. You just can't replicate that in the COVID world.

Wolfgang622 wrote:Wow. Wouldn't want to be that yoohoo Yoho.

Hope she was censured for that language. And calling out a colleague like that? DISGUSTING!

What a $#@!

538 just added some a few encouraging polls from Fox

PA +11
MI +9
MN +13

slugsrbad wrote:Qpac poll has Biden up 13 in Florida...

Uncle Milty wrote:538 just added some a few encouraging polls from Fox

PA +11
MI +9
MN +13

Fun

No Republican convention in Jacksonville.

thank goodness