I mean .... ok, but if Trump went into the trial room and said out loud that he's guilty, would the GOP senators vote to impeach?

Grotewold wrote:I mean .... ok, but if Trump went into the trial room and said out loud that he's guilty, would the GOP senators vote to impeach?

Yeah....Bolton's testimony could be the most damaging....since Trump's like four prior direct admissions.

Who would be 100% Not Guilty in that scenario?

Marsh Blackburn
Roy Blunt
Ron Johnson

80% range would open that up wider.

McSally
McConnell
Graham

Well, 'no one ever said they had knowledge that the aid was withheld from Ukraine' & 'Trump has been the most pro-Ukraine president ever.'

Heard these while driving - voice to text at a stop light because you guys love it - so those are not exact quotes.

it's perfectly appropriate, even laudable, since his purpose was to expose that corrupt biden

You can't win the nomination in Iowa, but a poor performance can under some circumstances fatally damage a candidacy. Which is why political coverage of elections is so terrible--so much of it is about expectations. Howard Dean's scream was a response to underperforming in Iowa, but frankly had the media not jumped all over that, he might have revived his campaign in New Hampshire. Gephardt of course kept losing Iowa and it always sunk his candidacy, but he was never viable.

But much of this is simply media narrative, which creates its own reality. So, if say Amy Klobachur comes from nowhere and finishes 3rd, it will revive her campaign. By contrast, if Biden or Sanders finish 3rd, they will be in big trouble.

YES! Rudy, a real American hero! America's mayor. Yahoo!

thephan wrote:YES! Rudy, a real American hero! America's mayor. Yahoo!

?

Among other things if the story keeps going and Trump becomes more desperate, I kind of wonder if Biden doesn't get sucked into the whirlpool. Maybe he doesn't even make it to Super Tuesday if things go really south for him.

If so and it goes wide open, wow are all bets off.

Wolfgang622 wrote:Among other things if the story keeps going and Trump becomes more desperate, I kind of wonder if Biden doesn't get sucked into the whirlpool. Maybe he doesn't even make it to Super Tuesday if things go really south for him.

If so and it goes wide open, wow are all bets off.

I think there is like a 1% chance this happens and that take into account Biden dying. He's going to win SC relatively easily, so he just needs to survive for a few weeks (and he polls no worse than 2nd in most Iowa and SC polls).

Trent Steele wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:Among other things if the story keeps going and Trump becomes more desperate, I kind of wonder if Biden doesn't get sucked into the whirlpool. Maybe he doesn't even make it to Super Tuesday if things go really south for him.

If so and it goes wide open, wow are all bets off.

I think there is like a 1% chance this happens and that take into account Biden dying. He's going to win SC relatively easily, so he just needs to survive for a few weeks (and he polls no worse than 2nd in most Iowa and SC polls).

Even if Biden isn't guilty of anything, and it seems he isn't, I just don't know if you want to be walking into the general with the stain of the controversy you are trying to pin on Trump on Biden as well. Feels like Benghazi/emails 2.0.

Fresh face might be better. Of course that could easily mean Buttigieg - ugh.

Grotewold wrote:I mean .... ok, but if Trump went into the trial room and said out loud that he's guilty, would the GOP senators vote to impeach?

No

CalvinBall wrote:

threecount wrote:Mitt Romney says he now thinks there are four GOP Senators that want to hear from Bolton as witness

Collins says the Bolton news strengthens the case to call witnesses and has prompted "conversations among her colleagues"

This reminds me of the crap she pulled around Kavanaugh. It's a work, folks.

pacino wrote:

Grotewold wrote:I mean .... ok, but if Trump went into the trial room and said out loud that he's guilty, would the GOP senators vote to impeach?

No

Yeah I cannot imagine anything in that Bolton book will make a lick of difference.

The fundamental problem is that the underlying “crime” of which Trump has been accused simply does not shock the conscience of, at this late date, a very jaded John Q. Voter nearly enough to hold his attention long enough for him to really care. I am not talking about the plugged in junkies who watch cable news, etc. I am talking about the low information average whoever who the Democrats are now trying to persuade with an hysterical crying of, “Can you believe it!?! Aren’t you scandalized!?! Donald Trump withheld money from the Ukraine until they turned over information he wanted about a domestic political opponent! For shame!”

And John Q. Voter, with just a hint of condescending boredom, replies flatly, “Show me one of those crooks who wouldn’t do the same thing if they had half a chance. Now excuse me, but I’ve got to catch up on my streaming.”

A burglary, sure, that’s visceral, people get offended by that. Maybe if Trump had personally accepted a bribe, like his buddy Blagoiovich, although I am not totally convinced by that one, but it would be very close and maybe even successful, especially if he were in any other way unpopular.

But this? In this economy? Forget about it. The fact that Biden through his son can be connected to this whole mess in any way only strengthens the low information sense that “they all do it.”

Wolfgang622 wrote:

thephan wrote:YES! Rudy, a real American hero! America's mayor. Yahoo!

?

The impeachment hearing was pumping up Rudy. America’s mayor. America’s greatest mayor. An American hero.

Whatever is talking now he’s just going back-and-forth about Obama and Biden and Obama and Biden and how much better Trump is.

You’re right that he’s never going to be convicted, but that’s really neither the point nor the purpose of this process. Forcing those R votes to acquit in light of Bolton’s allegations (and keeping this as the narrative as long as possible) is the goal.

And “The Room Where it Happened” is a great fucking name for the book

thephan wrote:Whatever is talking now he’s just going back-and-forth about Obama and Biden and Obama and Biden and how much better Trump is.

And ceremonial pens

Wolfgang622 wrote:[if Bernie gets the nomination] another positive is that Dems don't have to play the "what-if" game anymore about whether what America really wants is a more obviously leftist economic policy; they'll have data (did Bernie outperform Hillary? Expectations given the fundamentals? Or get utterly trounced?).

No amount of data will affect who the Democrats choose to nominate. Ignoring elections where the democratic nominee is the incumbent president, the following statements are true for every election in the last 90 years.

when the democrats nominate a candidate in his 40s they win
when the democrats nominate a candidate over 55 they lose
when the democrats nominate a candidate who isn't a current senator, or current or recent governor, they lose
when the democrats nominate a candidate who had previously sought the nomination they lose

Armed with that information, in 2016 the democrats decided to nominate Hillary Clinton, who was 68 years old, hadn't been a senator in eight years, and had sought the nomination eight years earlier. Hillary lost, adding more data points confirming what was already known. Democrats have responded by declaring that the most electable candidate in 2020 is Joe Biden, who is 77 years old, hasn't been a senator in almost twelve years years, and twice before has sought the nomination. And if not Biden then Bernie, who is 78 and sought the nomination four years ago. Meanwhile candidates who fit the bill, like Michael Bennet and Steve Bullock have been completely ignored.

Trent Steele wrote:You’re right that he’s never going to be convicted, but that’s really neither the point nor the purpose of this process. Forcing those R votes to acquit in light of Bolton’s allegations (and keeping this as the narrative as long as possible) is the goal.

And “The Room Where it Happened” is a great fucking name for the book

One of my favorite songs from Hamilton!